UFC 163 preview: Machida vs. Phil Davis

The UFC is one again heading back to Brazil- or as it is often referred to in the media, the Mecca of Mixed Martial Arts. Headlined by a featherweight championship bout between long time champion and hometown hero Jose Aldo and fan-favorite Chan Sung Jung, this card has fireworks written all over it. Add in a light heavyweight bout between top contenders Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis, and this card could reshape the entire second half of the year for several UFC weight classes.

#7 John ‘Hands of Stone’ Lineker (21-6) vs. Jose Maria ‘No Chance’ Tome (33-3)

Kicking off of the pay-per-view card is a flyweight matchup between the surging John Lineker and the debuting Jose Tome. With his only loss in his last 16 fights coming against Louis Gaudinot in his octagon debut back at UFC on Fox 3, “Hands of Stone” has shown why he was considered one of the top 125-pounders when he entered the UFC with back-to-back wins over Yasuhiro Urushitani and Azamat Gashimov. But standing across from him is the Brazilian Jose Maria Tome, who is entering the UFC riding a 12 fight winning streak with all but one those victories ending in a stoppage. What’s even more impressive is the fact that he’s finished 28 of his 33 career wins. Lineker is by far the more athletic fighter in this bout and his experience in UFC octagon will come in handy. But with his opponent looking to make a statement in his first UFC fight, this is a dangerous matchup for Lineker. I see this bout turning into a slugfest as the two fighters reach the later rounds and if that’s the case I see Linker spoiling the much anticipate debut of Tome and catapulting his way into the top 10 of the flyweight division.

> Lineker via Unanimous Decision

Thales Leites (20-4) vs. Tom ‘Kong’ Watson (16-5)

After a four-year absence from the UFC, former middleweight number-one contender Thales Leites has finally made his way back into the organization. Fight fans will remember Leites from his less than stellar performance against Anderson Silva back at UFC 97 that is widely regarded as one of the most lopsided main events in UFC history. But since that night Leites has dedicated himself to making it back to where he believes he belongs with wins in six of his last seven bouts, including four by submission. Standing in his way is the Englishman Tom Watson, the fighter who recently declared himself to be the most exciting fighter in all MMA and after his last performance that saw Watson win both Fight of the Night and Knockout of the Knight it is hard to argue against him. It’s a classic matchup of a fighter who likes to take the fight to the mat against a fighter who likes to keep the matchup standing. If Leites can keep Watson tied down on the ground, his chances of winning will grow exponentially as Watson likes to utilize his knees and elbows to batter his opponent in close quarters against the cage. If “Kong” can avoid Leites takedowns I see him battering his opponent to a decision victory.

> Watson via Unanimous Decision

Cezar ‘Mutante’ Ferreira (5-2) vs. Thiago ‘Marreta’ Santos (8-1)

The winner of the inaugural season of The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, Cezar Ferreira has not stepped foot inside the octagon since claiming the title over Sergio Moraes back at UFC 147. With injuries keeping him out of action for than a year, “Mutante” will be looking to prove. An aggressive fighter who tends to come out guns blazing early in the fight, Ferreira has proven he has the capability of stopping an opponent on either the feet or the mat. But standing across from him in the cage is the runner up the season 2 of TUF: Brazil, Thiago Santos. A late replacement for Mutante’s original opponent Clint Hester, the Tata Fight team product competed as a welterweight on his season of TUF so he is giving up a distinct size disadvantage against Ferreira. While Santos does have decent knockout power and grappling abilities, I don’t see him coming out in this one as Ferreira’s size will be too much for him to handle.

> Ferreira via Round 1 TKO

#1 Lyoto ‘The Dragon’ Machida (19-3) vs. # 7 Phil ‘Mr. Wonderul’ Davis (11-1)

A matchup between a pair top 10 light heavyweights is usually an early favorite for Fight of the Night honors as both men are looking to take the next step towards a title shot in one of the most stacked division in the UFC. This is once again the case as Lyoto Machida will be looking to earn his title shot with a win over former NCAA wrestling champion Phil Davis. With wins over Ryan Bader and Dan Henderson in his last two outings, this marks the third consecutive fight for Machida against a world-class wrestler. With a devastating knockout over Bader and a rather lackluster split decision win over Henderson, fight fans caught a glimpse of the different routes a Machida fight can take. In both instances, Machida used his trademark elusiveness with his karate-style approach. The difference in both bouts was the approach his opponent took, as Bader looked to rush his opponent and ran into a perfectly placed straight right from “The Dragon” as opposed to Henderson who stalked Machida around the octagon looking for an opening that never materialized.

Davis may very well be the best pure wrestler Machida has faced, and with wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Antônio Rogério Nogueira and Tim Boestch, the former Penn State wrestler has proven he’s one of the best at 205-pounds. The problem is Davis does not have a signature win over a top-10 talent, as the only loss of his careers was a 25-minute beat down at the hands of former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans. A win over the hometown favorite Machida, would not only propel Davis into the top 5 of the division but move him within one win away from a title shot. Machida is by far the better striking in this matchup, but Davis’s stand up game has greatly improved since his loss to Evans and he’ll be sporting a five-inch reach advantage over his opponent. IF Davis can manage to corner Machida and take him down, he will use overpowering strength to dominate his opponent into submission. But in the end I see this playing out the same way Machida’s last fight did as he continuously frustrates Davis into falling victim to his trap and capturing the title of number one contender in the process.

> Machida via Unanimous Decision

The complete Jose Aldo vs. Korean Zombie head-to-toe breakdown is up next.