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The Arizona Diamondbacks did not trade Justin Upton.

At least not yet, anyway.

The 25-year-old who hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBI for the disappointing D-backs last season is currently penciled into his customary spot in right field, and barring any surprises, will begin his sixth full season with the team in just a few months.

But what can Arizona expect from a player who has alternated good and bad seasons over the course of his career? Will Upton be the MVP candidate he was in 2011 when he hit .289 with 31 home runs and 88 RBI, or will he be the guy he was last season?

For what it's worth, an ESPN Insider article titled "Youngsters who will bounce back" listed the former No. 1 overall pick first.

Factoring in Upton's career trajectory and the fact that expectations may have been a bit high for him last year, the piece notes things could be worse for the player and his team.

When you hit .280/.355/.430 in your terrible, horrible, no good, very bad season, chances are you still have a lot going for you. Upton's very nearly been written off, but he remains a young player, with some history of pretty good success, signed for three years and $38.5 million, a reasonable deal when you consider the final two years buy out what would be free agency.

ZiPS pegs Upton to recover to a 24-homer, 3.4 WAR year in 2013 and that's not a projection I can quibble with. He's still young enough to have upside to significantly beat that projection. Even if 2011 remains his only superstar year, I'd rather have an underperforming star than an overperforming scrub.

The "ZiPS" projection system was developed by Dan Szymbrorski, who is the writer of the ESPN piece, and takes into account plenty of data to determine how a player will do.

And if it's right, the Diamondbacks will be happy they kept Upton around.

Provided, of course, they do.

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    ex-distancerunner wrote...
    Simply
    Justin Upton just needs to learn how to hit the slider which starts down the middle of the plate and breaks to the outside part of the plate. Pitchers realized that this was his achilles heel. Like Ted Williams, Upton refuses to go for singles and doubles to teh opposite field, until such a time that pitchers are forced to throw the pitches he wants once again..Hopefully Baylor is working on this..Glad Upton is still with us!
  • Abuse
    ArizonaMoose wrote...
    Performance Matters
    A star outfielder needs to produce more than 67 RBIs per season to justify a mega-deal (i.e. $150MM+). Turning 26 this season, J-UP is no longer a youngster "still developing". I hope Justin does have a great season this year and can finally live up to his potential. However, the stats don't lie - Josh Hamilton (128 RBI) had almost 2X the production as Justin Upton last season. He better have a big year if he expects to make a big paycheck!!!
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