SI’s Jaffe: Rotation to make Diamondbacks one of season’s surprise teams

Last year’s biggest problem for the Arizona Diamondbacks was fairly easy to identify.

A major league-worst 5.09 ERA and 1.49 WHIP showed a team whose starters and bullpen both had trouble getting batters out.

Although the bullpen might be a problem area again this season, Sports Illustrated baseball writer Jay Jaffe believes that improved play from the Arizona starting rotation could lead to the Diamondbacks being one of 2017’s surprise teams.

The Diamondbacks have Zack Greinke coming back from an uncharacteristically high 4.37 ERA and well-regarded options like Robbie Ray, Patrick Corbin, Shelby Miller, Braden Shipley and Archie Bradley. Add in new arrival Taijuan Walker, who enjoyed a strong spring after December surgery to remove 10 bone spurs in his right foot, and this bunch—which to start the year will likely have Bradley in the bullpen and Shipley back at Triple A—is too talented to struggle the way last year’s 93-loss club did. Aided by the return of Gold Glove centerfielder A.J. Pollock and the move from a poor pitch framer (Welington Castillo) to a good one, at least part-time (Jeff Mathis), Arizona should be much better at preventing runs than it was in 2016.

Greinke pitched relatively well in an Opening Day win over the San Francisco Giants on Sunday, going five innings and allowing four hits, two earned runs and two walks while striking out four.

Although he lacks the resume of a player like Greinke, much has been said of Ray’s breakout potential entering this season, after a deeper dive into his 2016 numbers revealed a player capable of better than the 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP he posted.

Ray is joined by another potential breakout player in Walker, who had a great spring and finished with a 3.29 ERA and 32:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 27.1 innings. The 24-year-old will try to live up his potential as a former first-round pick after accumulating a 22-22 record with a 4.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP up to this point in his career.

Another player who excelled in spring is Corbin, who used it to lock down the Diamondbacks’ No. 2 starter slot. He went 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 17 strikeouts in Cactus League play and is looking to bounce back after a career-worst 5.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP landed him in the bullpen to end 2016.

Spring ball wasn’t quite as kind to Miller, yet another pitcher coming off his worst season in the majors. He posted a 6.46 spring ERA, looking more like the 6.15 ERA pitcher from last year than the pitcher who had a 3.22 ERA prior to joining the Diamondbacks.

Nonetheless, the Diamondbacks’ entire rotation consists of players with significant upside who are coming off down seasons, so Jaffe’s optimism is not unfounded.