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Five reasons why the Suns might pass on Duke SF Jayson Tatum at No. 4

May 23, 2017, 9:00 AM | Updated: 10:59 pm

FILE - In this Jan. 21, 2017 file photo, Duke's Jayson Tatum (0) reacts following a basket against ...

FILE - In this Jan. 21, 2017 file photo, Duke's Jayson Tatum (0) reacts following a basket against Miami during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Durham, N.C. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome, File)

(AP Photo/Gerry Broome, File)

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Phoenix Suns general manager Ryan McDonough has made it no secret what his draft strategy will be with his team’s first-round pick.

Both during exit interviews and after the NBA Draft Lottery, McDonough said the team will take the best available player.

This, of course, depends on who the team feels it the best available player, but the consensus on some of the top draft boards is that it will be Duke small forward Jayson Tatum if Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Josh Jackson go with the first three picks.

DraftExpress has Tatum fourth in its top 100 and going to the Suns in their 2017 mock draft, ESPN’s Chad Ford has Tatum going fourth, while The Ringer’s Kevin O’ Connor and Sporting News’ Sam Vecenie has Tatum second. The prospect who most call the best isolation scorer in the draft was great for the Blue Devils, averaging 16.8 points and 7.3 rebounds a game.

This should be an easy decision for the Suns then, right? It might not be as easy as you think.

Our own Kevin Zimmerman covered the volatility of Tatum’s draft stock along with a core scouting report on the Duke wing.

Diving further into his evaluation, here are five reasons why Tatum isn’t a good fit for the Suns at No. 4 despite his high prospect ranking across the board.

1. The Suns already have a similar young player in T.J. Warren

Another reason Tatum won’t fit in Phoenix that we’ll get to later is he’s best as a small-ball power forward, but the Suns’ roster situation would relegate Tatum to small forward. Therein lies the biggest issue with drafting him. The issue’s name is T.J. Warren.

The 23-year-old No. 14 overall selection by the Suns in 2014, Warren has been hampered by two major setbacks that prevented him from putting together a breakout season. Looking ready to be a legitimate rotation player in the 2015-16 season, Warren had foot surgery in February and missed the rest of the year.

Coming back in his third year, Warren averaged 22.4 points a game in his first five games, shooting 51 percent as the No. 2 option in the offense alongside Devin Booker.

Warren’s success continued until what was called a minor head injury ruled him out on Nov. 13, and he missed the next 13 games. Warren was clearly struggling to get back into rhythm in a different role, but once again bounced back, averaging 17.1 points per game on 53.6 percent shooting in March and thriving as a rebounder with 8.1 boards a game.

While they are different players, Tatum and Warren are scorers first and have questions about their game elsewhere. Even if Tatum develops in some ways, he would still be an effective scoring small forward who isn’t at his best defensively. That’s what Warren is right now, and he’s still developing as well.

Warren is eligible for a contract extension later this summer, and when healthy, has proven he deserves to be a legitimate part of the Suns’ future.

If Warren’s play had not been as encouraging, selecting Tatum is easier to understand, but given the other options that could be on the board and Tatum’s weaknesses as a prospect, picking him would be the wrong move.

2. Tatum might wind up as a limited offensive player

Tatum is the best isolation scorer in the draft. That, packaged along with other average to below average skills, have him rated where he is. How good those other skills translate and grow, however, will determine how good of an offensive player he becomes. There is some reason to doubt them.

We start with Tatum’s core individual strength in isolation situations, where he simply looks like an NBA-caliber scorer.

For a 19-year-old, Tatum has terrific footwork.

Watch some of his plays below and notice how smooth his transitions are between moves to get himself open and his jumper. Despite being known as an isolation scorer, Tatum isn’t your traditional gunner and is intelligent with his moves. He knows how to use a combination of hesitations and quickness to his advantage.

It’s also important not to categorize Tatum as a “ball-stopper,” even though that’s the first thing you’d assume with an isolation scorer.

From the post, Tatum scored 1.30 points per possession, in the 99th percentile of all players, according to Synergy Sports (per Draft Express). He was often taking advantage of mismatches and while it won’t happen as often in the NBA, it still will and can be a weapon for him.

Tatum has a long, built-up release from three-point range with some natural fading away to it. He shouldn’t be anything beyond average to above average as a deep shooter, but that should be enough to expand his game. Still, like a lot of his skills outside of his scoring, it’s not one most are willing to bet on.

Like his shooting, Tatum’s passing is fine. He averaged 2.1 assists per game and can make the basic reads when he needs to.

The important differentiation, however, is that Tatum hasn’t shown the vision or overall passing ability to create for others consistently on his own, and when he’s going to probably be at his best isolating, that’s an issue.

A good individual scorer, shooter and passer adds up to a potentially dynamic offensive player. Tatum has several issues from an eye test perspective.

He lacks the quickness to take NBA-caliber athletes at small forward consistently off the dribble.

His finishing is also suspect. Tatum shot 62 percent at the rim per Hoop-Math, while Jackson shot 69 percent, Jonathan Isaac shot 69.8 percent, Fultz shot 61.6 percent, Dennis Smith Jr. shot 64.9 percent and Ball shot 78.9 percent.

He fails to separate himself among the top prospects and that combined with the inability to blow by small forwards adds up to a whole lot of possessions like this that you’ll see on film.

Tatum is a skilled player with multiple appealing aspects of his game, but all it would take is his finishing not improving or his jumper not translating for him to fail from becoming more than an inefficient, mid-range isolation scorer.

3. Tatum’s best-case scenario defensively likely won’t be above average

On the other end, Tatum’s effort and speed defensively are not encouraging.

While he lacks the agility needed to guard NBA threes, he has shown flashes of the footwork. It’s not difficult to see Tatum becoming a below average to average defender.

There’s a pinch of two-way potential in Tatum, but there are too many sequences like these.

The seemingly best outcome is for Tatum to become an average defender. To bring it back to how he’d fit in Phoenix, that wouldn’t separate him from Warren, who has steadily improved since his rookie year.

4. Tatum is at his best as a small-ball four

Because of the concerns with his quickness and his jumper as well as his proficiency in the post and isolating, Tatum is going to work best as a small-ball four in the NBA, a position he spent a good deal of time playing at Duke.

Phoenix wouldn’t have much room for him to play there. They already have Marquese Chriss, Jared Dudley and Dragan Bender at the position, and even if one or both of Chriss and Bender were to play some center long-term, Tatum would need to play a lot of small forward regardless.

5. There are potentially better options available at SF such as Josh Jackson or Jonathan Isaac

Forming a conclusion on Tatum as a prospect depends on several factors. There’s how valuable you think his individual offense is and how you think he develops his finishing, passing, shooting and defense.

Where the problem rests is that unlike Jackson or Isaac, Tatum’s player archetype in Phoenix would be a scoring small forward. Both Jackson and Isaac are more of the two-way players, making each a more diverse player able to switch in and out with Warren or replace him.

Beyond Tatum’s defensive potential as a perimeter stopper, Jackson in particular would give the team something they need on offense as well as a willing and capable passer and ball-handler alongside Booker on the wing.

Isaac would give the Suns a true defensive identity. He would play with Bender and Chriss as long, freaky athletes who can protect the rim and also switch onto guards. Tatum would give the team more of a contribution offensively, but a player so heavily weighted toward offense over defense is the wrong player to put next to Booker, especially with Warren already in place.

Even if one were to rate Tatum ahead of Jackson and Isaac, the other players’ worst outcomes as prospects wouldn’t be as damaging to the Suns due to their aforementioned skill sets. It would be much more of a risk with Tatum.

If his defense doesn’t improve significantly, he’s a one-way player. If his passing doesn’t get better, he’s an individual offensive player. If a combination of his shooting, finishing and post game doesn’t translate, he’s a limited offensive player that won’t be efficient.

That’s not the type of player the Suns need, and there will be better options for them to take at No. 4.

Follow Kellan Olson on Twitter

(Video clips courtesy of Tobias Berger)

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Five reasons why the Suns might pass on Duke SF Jayson Tatum at No. 4