ESPN’s Gasaway explains the significance of ASU’s top-5 ranking
Dec 12, 2017, 1:09 PM
Arizona State guard Tra Holder, right, passes around St. John's guard Justin Simon during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Los Angeles, Friday, Dec. 8, 2017. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
(AP Photo/Chris Carlson)
Arizona State began the year unranked, jumped into the polls at No. 20 two weeks ago and crept to 16th last Monday.
Following two wins last week over top-50 KenPom teams, including an upset at No. 2 Kansas, the Sun Devils came in at No. 5 in this week’s Associated Press Poll.
Is it significant?
There’s an entire Pac-12 schedule and three games before that remaining, they say. Rankings mean little in December, they say.
ESPN’s John Gasaway, on his personal blog, says otherwise.
Researching AP Polls dating back to 1999, Gasaway found that the Week 6 college basketball rankings — that’s this week — have been the most accurate of any poll in predicting a national champion (aside from the one after Selection Sunday).
If you bump into an AP pollster today and you think they look smarter than they did last week, you’re right!https://t.co/urOmF1Bz4e pic.twitter.com/9D48o5woO7
— John Gasaway (@JohnGasaway) December 12, 2017
The average ranking of the national champ in college basketball is somewhere between sixth and seventh in Week 6.
More than that, only once since 1999 has a team won a title having been ranked lower than No. 12 at this point in the season; fans of the Sun Devils’ rivals, the No. 23-ranked Arizona Wildcats, might not want to hear that last part.
But for ASU, the No. 5 ranking means a lot more than the team’s non-ranking prior to its first game.
Related to that, it means the media members who take part in the AP Poll actually aren’t so bad at eyeing good teams. It just takes them a handful of weeks to calibrate their rankings.
Nobody can predict whether Arizona State can make an NCAA Tournament run. Even if all goes well, it could hit a team that’s a bad matchup or one that’s just red hot.
The fact is, however, that ASU is a very good team.
