Empire of the Suns NBA Draft Big Board 3.0, Part II: Doncic, Ayton on top

As we reach the midway point of conference play, the cement is starting to be poured in for certain players at certain positions of an NBA Draft big board.

There’s still time to pull them out before it dries, but for now, we have as good of an understanding as we could ask for on what players are as NBA prospects and if they have been improving throughout the season.

Many other stages in the process, like the NCAA Tournament, still await and are going to be a critical time for some players to establish even more certainty.

A quick reminder that you can check out versions 1.0 and 2.0 of our big board for in-depth breakdowns of players when they were first initially featured. This will be our last version ranking with only the prospects in mind. With the trade deadline passing and the NCAA Tournament wrapping up, that’s when we can account for need with the Suns.

After part one, we touch on one of the strongest top-7 classes in an NBA Draft in quite some time.

7. Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Michigan State, 18 years old (–)

Jackson has recovered nicely in conference play from an efficiency standpoint.

His field goal percentage is up to 52.3 percent, his 3-point percentage is up to 44.4 percent and he’s shooting 80.0 percent from the line.

To put him any higher on this list, though, would first require Jackson to stay on the court longer, something he struggles to do because he has ended a game with four or more fouls in 14 of his 24 games.

The question with ranking Jackson is how much you are betting on the very impressive tape — most of which comes in flashes — that suggests he could make each of his skills a legitimate tool at the next level (aka, most of his offense). For our friends at The Stepien, those flashes are enough for him to be at No. 3 overall.

For me, I land here. If the percentages hold to an extent, I’m comfortable with top-7. The next six guys simply offer too much at this time.

6. Marvin Bagley III, F/C, Duke, 18 years old (▼2)

Having Bagley outside the top-3 is going to continue to feel low to most, but for me, this is placing him a couple spots higher out of respect for his production.

When you say it out loud, “putting up 20 and 10 every night” sounds so casual. Since 1992, though, only three freshmen have averaged that line: Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant and Kris Humphries.

Bagley is well on his way, at 21.4 points and 11.4 rebounds a game while shooting an efficient 59.9 percent from the field.

I still don’t have an answer to the “what is he in the NBA?” question, and maybe past experience with Marquese Chriss is why I’m more gun-shy to this than the majority, but I still have long-term concerns about him playing either power forward or center in the NBA.

Any reason to contradict a hard stance on defensive concerns is not there. The sliding is still not great for how unreal of an athlete he is and his instincts everywhere are lacking, an attribute he cannot afford to have.

On offense, there is no consistency anywhere to indicate he’s anything more than an out of this world athlete with terrific touch around the rim. The upside for his jumper and ball-handling, of course, is why for some he’s a no-doubt top-3 prospect.

As Ben Falk of Cleaning the Glass wrote, you either have to buy in on the shot or his basketball IQ. I’m not buying either.

Like Bamba and Jackson, you have to be more picky about these guys because of how great this class is at the top, and Bagley’s fit concerns are enough to keep him in this range. He’s still an incredible athletic specimen who has a great feel for scoring around the rim and works really hard, but that’s not enough to be top-5 this year.

5. Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas, 19 years old (▼2)

Here is what I wrote about Bamba in November when it came to Bamba’s, at times, lack of impact as the No. 2 ranked prospect on my board.

If he continues to show these lapses, he won’t last long in the top-3 and possibly even the top-5.

Well, we’re just about there!

In terms of sheer upside, Bamba is a top-3 pick, but what he’s shown at Texas confirms the worrisome lack of engagement on the defensive end and the inability to find a consistent role on the offensive end.

What doesn’t help him is the level of this class and the seasons the likes of Bagley, Jackson and Wendell Carter Jr. are having. I could see all three go ahead of him depending on how teams feel about him and the outline of their roster.

Now, if Bamba can continue the form he’s had in the past few games, maybe he holds steady and even moves up. How soon, though, do we begin to question how NBA-ready he is as a center listed at 225 pounds even if the production is impressive?

4. Michael Porter Jr., F, Missouri, 19 years old (▲1)

With Porter’s injury, I dove deeper on his tape pre-Missouri and I’m more optimistic than I was before.

What you see with Porter on a closer look is a sound foundation, where most of the criticisms I had were for a larger, higher upside of a player.

Maybe his handle isn’t pick-and-roll ready (yet) and his defense doesn’t suggest a small-ball four with weak-side rim protection as a strength (yet), but mistaking this for a lack of fluidity moving across the floor is a mistake.

The mediocre ball-handling is an ugly layer over how well he moves with the ball. His footwork and movement getting into his jumper are pretty and the level of athleticism combined with that adds upside to his slashing profile. His knack for scoring is there — it’s just his transitions in and out of getting to those correct positions that need work.

He lacks the true pop of the guys ranked around him, which is why I was reluctant ranking him as a surefire top-5 prospect, but the way he uses his jumper and his body at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan has him decisively as my fourth-best prospect in this class.

3. Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma, 19 years old (▲8)

As expected, Young has turned into somewhat of a phenomenon since our last big board.

Everyone is watching when Young is playing, putting a larger microscope on him than any other draft prospect.

What we have seen in that time is what makes him so special.

A Big 12 schedule filled with great college basketball teams has resulted in lines such as his 43 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists against then-No. 16 ranked TCU and 27 points and 10 assists against then-No.8 ranked Texas Tech.

His efficiency, as expected, has taken a slight dip, but it’s because of that aforementioned attention from opponents.

The most telling game for him was against then-No. 5 Kansas coming off his two worst performances in back-to-back losses. Coming into that Kansas game, he had 28 turnovers in his past three games and took 39 shots in an overtime loss to Oklahoma State the game prior.

Young realized he had to dial it back a bit and played his most composed game yet, scoring 26 points on just nine shots with nine assists and five turnovers to beat the Jayhawks.

The limitations we talked about last time are still there, and they showed most recently against NBA athleticism on Alabama, but the upside for him as an offensive player is simply too high to be outside of the top-3 discussion.

The 3-7 spots on the big board are very close at the moment, and I expect to solidify those evaluations for my board by April. I prefer Young right now, as his top-tier positives have the smoothest transition jumping to the NBA level.

2. Deandre Ayton, PF/C, Arizona, 19 years old, (–)

Ayton has had a dominant season in Tucson by showcasing what he’s all about offensively and physically while making strides as a defender. It’s all but cemented him as a top-2 prospect in this class.

He continues to be a monster for the Wildcats. His lowest scoring game in Pac-12 play outside of his 14 points against Oregon State was nine points against Stanford, but he had eight rebounds, three assists and six blocks.

In a high-level prospect, you want to see gradual growth, and Ayton is clearly getting better as a passer and a defender.

With his passing, it’s nothing constant outside of reading double teams effectively and quickly making teams pay for doing so, but it’s a great trait for him to possess because he’s going to see those in the NBA too.

His greatest improvement has been as an on-ball defender. What it essentially looks like is Ayton’s tracking software has been updated when honing in on block opportunities. He’s using his ridiculous quickness for his size to keep up with his man more, which means he gets more chances to block shots. It’s better off-ball too, but he still needs major work there.

He’s still snoozing off the ball at a consistent rate and we haven’t seen enough of him facing up and attacking the rim to warrant a No. 1 ranking in my eyes, but, man, he is one hell of a prospect.

1. Luka Doncic, F, Real Madrid, 18 years old (—)

For those waiting to see the magic wash off Doncic as the college basketball season gets closer to its apex, keep waiting.

17 PTS, 6 REBS & 5 AST for Luka Doncic in 24 MIN against Efes. Elite skill level at 6-8, 228 pounds. Still 18 years old. pic.twitter.com/QgmxOUHdky

— Mike Schmitz (@Mike_Schmitz) January 25, 2018

Instead of talking about what we’ve already talked about with Doncic, here are two eye-popping assists that show what he’s all about.

This is part of his pick-and-roll manipulation, as he doesn’t force a bump into the help defender, and instead aggressively pushes horizontally to create just enough space to get the bounce pass by the second help defender.

Luka Doncic transforming passing into art
pic.twitter.com/QBQSuKStOt

— Eurohoops.net (@Eurohoopsnet) January 25, 2018

How about going with a bounce pass to avoid the hand of that first help defender?

Check him out here getting doubled team and having the poise to recognize his roll man is covered. He looks towards the shooter on the wing for just enough time so he can whiz a missile into the roll man.

Luka Doncic with the LASER-ASSIST

pic.twitter.com/UrPg9t2Sd8

— Eurohoops.net (@Eurohoopsnet) November 24, 2017

Watch again, but this time looking at the defender trying to cover two guys. Around the eight-second mark, he shifts his weight and hops towards the shooter, and as he does this, the ball is fired out of Doncic’s hands.

Those two “just” examples show the genius in what really makes highlight plays like this happen, and why he’s still our No. 1.

Follow @KellanOlson