SI predicts Diamondbacks finish .500 in 2016

The Arizona Diamondbacks grabbed the national spotlight when they signed former Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher and Cy Young winner Zack Greinke to a 6-year, $206.5 million deal, and acquired pitcher Shelby Miller from the Atlanta Braves. Arizona needed to improve the front end of its rotation, and on paper, the team succeeded in a big way.

The improvements, coupled with the continued growth of Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock and David Peralta, were enough for fans to envision this team playing into past game 162, something they haven’t done since 2011.

However, Sport’s Illustrated’s Cliff Corcoran isn’t jumping on board just yet.

The baseball writer is predicting the Diamondbacks to finish 2016 in third place in the National League West with a record of 81-81. Taking into consideration the Dodgers’ NL West dominance of recent years and the San Francisco Giants adding pitchers Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija through free agency, the division will once again prove to be very tough for the up-and-coming D-backs.

Arizona had a promising season last year, finishing 79-83 — a 15-win improvement over 2014. The Diamondbacks finished second in the National League in total offense, behind only the Colorado Rockies. The offense was fueled by breakout seasons by Pollock and Peralta, and Goldschmidt provided another MVP-type caliber season.

On his way to his first All-Star appearance, Pollock set career-highs in batting average (.315), home runs (20), RBI (76), runs scored (111) and stolen bases (39).

Appearing in 61 more games in 2015 than 2014, Peralta became a focal point in the offense. The outfielder finished with a .312 batting average, smacked 17 home runs and drove in 78 RBIs.

Finishing second in the NL MVP voting to Washington Nationals’ outfielder Bryce Harper, Goldschmidt had a tremendous year in 2015. He was third in the NL in batting average (.321), fifth in home runs (33) and second in RBI (110).

Arizona’s offense carried a pitching rotation that featured Josh Collmenter as the team’s 2015 Opening Day starter, and Rubby De La Rosa leading the team in wins (14). Collmenter is now in the bullpen and De La Rosa is fighting for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. The Diamondbacks will slot Patrick Corbin in the three-hole, as the lefty continues his journey back from having Tommy John surgery in 2014. Corbin has been pegged as a breakout pitcher in 2016 after finishing last season with a 6-5 record and 3.02 ERA.

The Diamondbacks have added not one, but two significant arms to their rotation in 2015 NL Cy Young runner-up Zack Greinke and 25-year-old righty Shelby Miller, the latter of whom posted a 124 ERA+ in 205 1/3 innings for the Braves last year. Those two will combine with Patrick Corbin — who made a strong, 16-start return from Tommy John surgery last year — to form an excellent top three in Arizona’s rotation.

If the Diamondbacks can hit themselves to a 79-win season with a below-average starting rotation, upgrading the pitching like the team has done this offseason, you’d think a win increase of more than two games would be in order in 2016.

Arizona will miss outfielder Ender Inciarte, whom the team sent to Atlanta in the deal that brought Miller to the desert. Corcoran noted that putting added confidence in 25-year-old Yasmany Tomas might not be wise, but it shouldn’t hinder this team. The Diamondbacks signed Tomas to a $68.5 million deal in December 2014, so it’s time for the Cuban outfielder to start living up to that contract. While he struggled in his rookie season, hitting .273 with only nine home runs, Tomas should have much more opportunities his second go-around in 2016.

Corcoran added that an important X-factor for the team’s success in 2016 with be its defense.

According to park-adjusted defensive efficiency, the Diamondbacks were merely an average defensive team in 2015, ranking 15th in the majors with a nearly league-average rate of turning balls in play into outs. That’s surprising given that two of their outfielders, Pollock and Inciarte, and their four primary infielders—Goldschmidt, second baseman Chris Owings, shortstop Nick Ahmed and third baseman Jake Lamb—all rated above average individually, with Ahmed, Enciarte and Pollock all ranking among the best fielders in baseball at their respective positions. That gives you an idea of just how poor Arizona’s other fielders were, and how much damage Tomas was able to do in just 92 starts in the field.

Tomas is an obvious downgrade in the outfield from Inciarte, there’s no denying that. Inciarte is a versatile defender who can play more than one position, and increased his overall WAR from 1.7 in 2014 to 3.7 in 2015.

Being ranked No. 19 in the MLB in total strikeouts with less than stellar pitchers on the mound, signing Greinke, who was in the top 20 in total strikeouts with 200, will provide less balls in play for Arizona defenders. In comparison, De La Rosa led the Diamondbacks in strikeouts with 150 last season, and he is now fighting for the final rotation spot. If Arizona’s fifth starter in 2016 has roughly the same amount of strikeouts as the team’s 2015 pitcher who had the team’s most wins, the defense should not be a major concern.

With so much attention fixated on Tomas, it’s only fitting that the outfielder is Corcoran’s most overrated Diamondback. Tomas may be the most overrated strictly based on the type of contract he has and the expectations behind it, but he is rather the most important to the team’s success behind the three-headed trio of Goldschmidt, Pollock and Peralta. Not including pitchers, while the play of Tomas in 2016 may not make-or-break Arizona’s 2016 season, it will heavily influence it. So far in spring training, Tomas has shouldered the heightened expectations perfectly. He’s hitting .429 with three RBIs in 28 at-bats. The sample size is small though as the outfielder was dealing with knee issues early on.

Given the uncharacteristic offseason splurging by the Diamondbacks in their signing of Greinke, trading Inciarte and their overall No. 1 pick in shortstop Dansby Swanson, and the recent fiasco with Maricopa County regarding Chase Field, it goes without saying that 2016 will be an exciting year. A year that hopefully ends with Arizona playing well into October.