Football Outsiders: Cardinals sneaky good in third-and-long situations
Jul 21, 2016, 6:30 AM
(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
Passing the eye test is one thing. The Arizona Cardinals’ defense certainly did that in 2015.
But putting a number on their success, especially in one specific category, helps to understand how good they are compared to the rest of the NFL.
When it comes to finding a “sneaky strength” of Arizona’s defense last year, nothing stood out more from a statistical sense than the Cardinals’ ability to stop opponents on third-and-long.
Based on Football Outsider’s defense-adjusted value over average statistic, Bruce Arians’ team was the best in third-and-long situations, and it isn’t particularly close.
The Cardinals were far and away the best third-and-long defense with minus-97.6 percent DVOA, well ahead of second-ranked Houston and its minus-61.7 percent DVOA.
That means Arizona was 97.6 percent better than the average team in a given situation. The statistic is based on several situational variables, including location on the field, score differential, quarter, the quality of the opponent and their ability in a given situation.
The DVOA may be abstract, but it’s easy to understand why the second-best team in the NFL appeared far from matching Arizona’s third-and-long success.
From cornerback to defensive end, the Cardinals’ defense was well-rounded in 2015. Its ability to blitz at such a high frequency, and the defensive backs’ competency to lock up downfield targets, likely had to do with opponents struggling to convert in third-and-long situations against Arizona.