ARIZONA COYOTES

Examining the reasons behind the Coyotes’ early struggles

Dec 8, 2016, 8:00 AM | Updated: 4:26 pm

As Columbus Blue Jackets celebrate a goal by center Alexander Wennberg, Arizona Coyotes goalie Mike...

As Columbus Blue Jackets celebrate a goal by center Alexander Wennberg, Arizona Coyotes goalie Mike Smith sprays water on his head during the third period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Dec. 3, 2016, in Glendale, Ariz. The Blue Jackets defeated the Coyotes 3-2 in a shootout. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

GLENDALE, Ariz. — It is hard to argue the claim that the Coyotes have taken a step back this season. Through 25 games last year, they were 13-11-1, they had scored 67 goals and they had allowed 75. Through 25 games this season, they are 8-13-4, they have scored 57 goals and they have allowed 80.

Tuesday’s 4-0 loss in Chicago gave Arizona its second five-game losing streak (0-3-2) of the season (they also have a four-game losing streak) and the Coyotes sit 29th in the 30-team league standings, one point ahead of Colorado and four points behind 28th place Vancouver.

It doesn’t help that four of the five teams the Coyotes have played during this losing streak sit 12th (San Jose), fifth (Columbus twice) and second (Chicago) in the overall league standings, but Arizona has not been as competitive as last season and it is not playing with the puck as much this season due to turnovers, center play, defensive play and an inability to sustain a forecheck. If it weren’t for the superlative goaltending of Mike Smith, the picture would look grimmer.

“It’s been challenging, but that’s also part of the process,” general manager John Chayka said Wednesday. “If there weren’t challenges and it was all great, you wouldn’t appreciate it. A bit of pain and a bit of hurt is not a bad thing.

“The thing about our young group for me is that they’re learning. This is the core of the group that’s going be here a long time. All of these things that they’re going through, their first experiences and their second experiences, they’re going to learn from that and they’re going to be better as they move forward.”

The Coyotes’ youth movement began to take shape last season when they introduced rookies Max Domi, Anthony Duclair, Jordan Martinook and Louis Domingue into the lineup, but it was fully embraced this season with five to six more rookies (Jakob Chychrun, Anthony DeAngelo, Lawson Crouse, Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini and, for a stretch, Dylan Strome) infused into the roster, making this feel more like Year 1 of the new plan.

Given that dearth of experience, the logical expectation this season should have been what fans are seeing now: an inconsistent and mistake-prone team that struggles to win consistently. Perhaps the only thing that skewed fans’ notion — aside from four years of desperately waiting for another postseason berth — was the hockey operations department insisting it wanted to compete for a playoff spot this season.

“I think with the training and the development work you can do now, you can push your timeline to a pretty early stage in a player’s career but we went into this thing eyes wide open in terms of the youth on our roster,” Chayka said. “At the same time, if you’re in this industry and you’re not trying to make the playoffs and you’re not trying to win every game, I don’t know what you’re doing in it.

“We think if we can continue to progress and find some consistency in our game, there is parity across the league, so we think we can get on run and push for a playoff spot.”

History is not on the Coyotes’ side. Arizona currently trails Winnipeg by nine points for the final Western Conference wild card spot, although the Coyotes have four games in hand on the Jets. The only team since 2001 to rally from that large of a deficit (or greater) after Thanksgiving to make the playoffs was San Jose in 2006.

Here’s a look at some of the reasons behind the Coyotes’ struggles.

YOUTH

The Coyotes said they would remake the roster in order to compete for a playoff spot this season. Adding Alex Goligoski on defense and Jamie McGinn and Radim Vrbata up front was supposed to infuse enough additional offense. It hasn’t. Vrbata leads the team with eight goals and 17 points, but the Coyotes are 27th in the NHL in goals per game at 2.2. Again, that shouldn’t come as a surprise since the Coyotes regularly have nine players on their 23-man roster who are either in their first or second NHL season. That’s almost 40 percent of the roster.

If the Coyotes truly wanted to compete for a playoff spot, they needed to make a bigger splash in free agency or via the trade route than they did. Chayka tried repeatedly to add more help on the blue line (most notably for a top-four, right-handed defenseman) and he tried to get more help up front but the moves did not pan out.

As the roster is currently constructed, the Coyotes’ best hope is that the younger players will progress with the season and contribute more in February, March and April, but this, in all likelihood, is not a playoff team.

CENTER

The Coyotes chose to keep rookie centers Dylan Strome, Christian Dvorak and Laurent Dauphin on the opening-night roster. Strome is back in the OHL to work on his overall game; Dauphin is back in Tucson (AHL) to work on his offensive game and Dvorak is manning a regular shift but hasn’t overwhelmed. All three players are young so there is time to develop, but it is concerning that neither Dvorak nor Strome has shown the dynamic or offensive side to their game that the Coyotes desperately need from that position.

Take a look at Strome’s draft year and see all the players who are contributing. Strome has time, but concerns about his ability to reshape the center position are fair, and the same goes for Dvorak, who has two goals and seven points in 21 games. Chayka insists he sees significant progress in Dvorak’s game from the start of the season, but neither player is known for his skating ability. In a league increasingly stressing speed, that is important, even if thinking the game fast is just as important.

“Going into this season, we knew that our risk was up the middle,” Chayka said. “We were putting our risk in a player like Dylan Strome who has been a consistent producer at every level, and Christian Dvorak who had one of the better junior seasons you could imagine.

“Dylan came in and physically he just wasn’t there and that’s how it goes.”

The Coyotes issues at center forced coach Dave Tippett to move Martinook to center. He has lent some stability to that position, but he hasn’t solved the team’s lack of offensive creativity from that spot.

Brad Richardson’s broken leg was a huge blow to the Coyotes. At the same time, losing a player of Richardson’s caliber should not derail a season. The fact that it has had such a great impact is both a testament to how well Richardson was playing, and how challenged the position has been.

Martin Hanzal is having an average season in terms of offensive production (five goals, nine points in 20 games) and he is winning 54.4 percent of his faceoffs, but his possession numbers are also poor, overall and relative to his teammates. The Coyotes must think long and hard about whether to re-sign Hanzal, who can become an unrestricted free agent after this season.

DEFENSE

Goligoski was the Coyotes’ biggest offseason acquisition, a player for whom they acquired exclusive negotiating rights from the Stars for a 2016 fifth-round pick. Goligoski has 10 assists because he gets put in situations to impact offense, but he hasn’t played well enough overall. He’s made notable and consistent mistakes with the puck, in defensive-zone coverage and his possession numbers are among the worst on the team (41.93 CF%; 45.94 relative Corsi).

Oliver Ekman-Larsson is one of the more under-appreciated players in the NHL, but an honest analysis will show that Ekman-Larsson has not played like an elite defenseman this season. He is tied for 24th among NHL defensemen in points with 13 points and his possession numbers are average. The Coyotes need far more from their franchise player.

Connor Murphy and Michael Stone haven’t taken the step forward that the Coyotes had hoped after promising campaigns last year earned them new contracts. Rookies Jakob Chychrun and Anthony DeAngelo have shown flashes of real potential, but youth has also led to numerous mistakes in defensive coverage and DeAngelo is currently back with Tucson of the AHL to work on that noticeable shortcoming in his game. Kevin Connauton and Luke Schenn are depth players.

WINGS

Max Domi has four goals and 15 points through 25 games. He had eight goals and 21 points through 25 games last season so it’s hard to criticize his offense, even if he needs to do a better job managing the puck.

Anthony Duclair is an entirely different story. Put simply, the Coyotes need goals from Duclair. He had 20 in his rookie season; he has one in 24 games this year and he was benched on Monday in Columbus. Trade rumors have swirled around Duclair but given his struggles, Duclair’s trade value is questionable, even if the Coyotes were truly pursuing a move rather than simply engaging in the every-day discussions that typify a GM’s job.

Jamie McGinn is slightly off his goal-scoring pace of the past six seasons, but he could regain that easily, while Vrbata is on pace for 26 goals. Tobias Rieder and Martinook are having strong seasons (12 goals combined) but captain Shane Doan (three goals) is well off the pace he set last year when he scored a team-high 28 goals. At age 40, Doan has struggled to impact the game consistently. Lawson Crouse could be an effective bottom-six player for years but he has yet to show a significant offensive upside.

Brendan Perlini has shown enough in his two games since a recall from Tucson to warrant a further look. The Coyotes desperately need speed and offense. Perlini possesses both and his short-sample-size possession numbers are terrific.

“We have a plan and we’re sticking to it,” Chayka said. “The timing of the plan is the toughest thing. Players are human and humans are hard to predict. Some take longer than others and some come quicker.

“Can I sit here and say that in the next 10 games some of these young players are going to take off? It’s tough to predict, but I do know that over the long run these are high-end players and character people that will be winners in this league. We just have to stick with them.”

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Flames at Coyotes

When: 7 p.m., Thursday

Where: Gila River Arena, Glendale

TV: FOX Sports Arizona

Radio: Arizona Sports 98.7 FM

Records: Coyotes 8-13-4. Flames 14-13-2.

Injury report: Coyotes — C Brad Richardson (broken right tibia and fibula) is out indefinitely. Flames — D Ladislav Smid (neck) is out for the season.

Scouting the Flames: Calgary has won four straight and is 7-2-1 in its last 10. … LW Johnny Gaudreau has two goals and four points in two games since returning from a broken pinkie. … C Sean Monahan has three goals and seven points in his last five games. … Calgary’s power play is ranked 28th in the NHL at 13.5 percent and its penalty-killing unit is 26th at 78.3 percent but both units have been hot of late. … Former Coyotes G Chad Johnson is 9-2 since assuming the starting goaltending duties from Brian Elliott. Johnson is tied for sixth in the NHL with a .931 save percentage and he is eighth in goals against average at 2.04.

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