Signs point to Suns once again playing the waiting game in free agency

The Phoenix Suns might have danced with a necessary evil on draft night.

They traded a high-level scorer, T.J. Warren, the No. 6 overall pick, the 32nd overall pick and a future Milwaukee Bucks first-rounder for one year of starting power forward Dario Saric (plus his restricted free agency rights), one year of backup center Aron Baynes and two rookies with high floors and low ceilings.

Putting aside what rookies Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome can bring this year or in the future, it’s perceived as poor asset valuation.

But it also got Phoenix off Warren’s $10.8 million contract owed in 2019-20 that escalates over the following two years. It potentially saved Phoenix cash this year at backup center, where we can assume Baynes’ $5.4 million expiring contract will be less than whatever free agent Richaun Holmes gets on a new deal that would be for multiple years.

All that telegraphed that the Suns want a little bit of financial freedom beyond 2019-20 — it just came at the cost of talent. Assuming Phoenix does not take a home run cut and sign a big-name free agent such as Nets point guard D’Angelo Russell, the path out of the cellar remains a waiting game.

As it stands, there are only six certifiably good NBA players on the depth chart and 11 players that are currently under contract for next year.

PG: Tyler Johnson, De’Anthony Melton, Elie Okobo, Jalen Lecque

SG: Devin Booker, Ty Jerome

SF: Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson, Cam Johnson

PF: Dario Saric

C: Deandre Ayton, Aron Baynes

Melton is already a good defender, but his offense is lacking. Cam Johnson and Jerome must prove their defense is decent enough to contribute as rookies. Jackson cannot have some of the worst net ratings in the NBA.

Point is, Phoenix has a lot to do in free agency but arguably not enough cap space to add enough NBA-caliber bench players for an eight-man rotation. After extending an offer sheet to restricted free agent Kelly Oubre Jr., they have more than $13 million to spend and remain under the cap, all of which they can use before bringing back Oubre to go over it.

The direction of the Suns looks clear. Cash-strapped, they must somehow win enough games and build enough culture to spend in a 2020 free agency class that includes Class B stars like Caris LeVert and Draymond Green.

Booker, Ayton, Bridges, Jackson, Okobo, Cam Johnson, Jerome and Lecque are the only players under contract next summer. Phoenix could add Oubre and Saric to that list if it can sign the former and extend the latter this offseason. Should they sign a starting point guard in the coming weeks, there’s a decent enough core there.

But roster balance is clearly an issue right now, and that’s a problem if they want to do enough in 2019-20 to convince next summer’s free agents that things have changed.

Tyler Johnson can man point guard again, but his best role is as a third combo guard, swinging between point and Booker’s backup. The Suns’ point guard needs will be costly even if they want to get involved in the second tier of free agents.

Veteran Patrick Beverley (Bird) is seeking a contract around three years and $40 million, according to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. That would nearly eat up all the available cap space if the Suns cling to the cap hold keeping Oubre a restricted free agent.

Even sliding to perhaps the next-best option and signing Cory Joseph (Bird) or Tomas Satoransky (restricted) would eat up $8-10 million of the available cap space.

After that, what does Phoenix do at power forward? Players like Thaddeus Young and JaMychal Green are likely out of its price range barring a surprise trade of Jackson’s $7.2 million contract (By the way, it would be really surprising and risky for the Suns to stretch Tyler Johnson’s $19.2 million deal for any reason other than going after a huge free agent like Russell).

Then the Suns are running into the tier of forwards that includes Frank Kaminsky (reportedly unrestricted), Mike Scott (non-Bird), Maxi Kleber (restricted), Al-Farouq Aminu (Bird) and Jonas Jerebko (non-Bird).

Re-signing Oubre and tacking on a starting point guard bumps the Suns up to eight capable rotation players, good enough to attack the season off the jump but putting them in a vulnerable position if and when an injury hits. Cam Johnson, Jackson and Jerome, hopefully for them, would end up being contributors in that case.

Every single avenue to piecing together a competitive roster this summer leads to the same place. Phoenix can and should be spending a decent amount of money this offseason just to hit 30-35 wins. Barring a surprise signing, that’s the likely direction.

All those moves should be about culture. And unfortunately, all of them appear to be about waiting out yet another season, again trying to use this as a building-block year.

Suns fans can only hope that, during the next 365 days, another earthquake via firings or changes in direction doesn’t once again disturb the Suns’ cement foundation before it can dry and set.

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