The 5: Questions for Diamondbacks as winter meetings get started

Major League Baseball’s annual winter meetings begin early next week in Dallas, and the Arizona Diamondbacks enter among the quieter clubs this far into the offseason in terms of roster moves.

Arizona has had other items to tend to by hiring pitching coach Brian Kaplan and opening a new academy in the Dominican Republic.

As for the roster, the D-backs opted into the final year of third baseman Eugenio Suarez’s deal while Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, Paul Sewald, Josh Bell, Kevin Newman and Christian Walker all entered free agency. Walker declined a qualifying offer.

Arizona made some moves around the edges, such as claiming former Sun Devil pitcher Seth Martinez.

Significant moves have trickled in around the league, particularly with the pitching market, before the winter meetings.

Blake Snell is a Dodger, Frankie Montas a Met, Luis Severino an Athletic and Yusei Kikuchi an Angel to name a few. But there remains the strong possibility much of MLB is in a holding pattern waiting for one of the most unique superstars to enter free agency in MLB history: Juan Soto.

5 questions as Diamondbacks enter winter meetings

Will Juan Soto set the offseason in motion?

Much of this rumor season has revolved around the slugger who helped the Yankees win the American League pennant for the first time since 2009. Soto is a four-time All-Star, and his debut at 19 years old has created a fascinating free agency in which he enters the market at only 26 years old. His contract is expected to surpass $600 million over double-digit seasons.

The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Dodgers have been most connected to Soto, particularly the New York teams with the Mets looked at as slight favorites. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote Soto could sign before Monday with signs the end is near.

If the Yankees or Mets sign Soto before the winter meetings get going, would the other New York team pivot to Pete Alonso? How would that impact the market for Walker? A Soto deal getting done would open doors for more activity across the league, setting up a potentially vibrant December with baseball news after a slow drip offseason so far.

Will the Diamondbacks trade a pitcher?

The Diamondbacks have received trade interest for their starting pitchers since the very beginning of the offseason. Most of the smoke surrounds Jordan Montgomery, a trusted veteran left-hander for years before struggling with a 6.23 ERA for the D-backs in 2024. He opted into a $22.5 million player option after managing partner Ken Kendrick criticized his addition to the team.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the D-backs were open to trading him but “somewhat mixed” with his bounce-back potential.

There are benefits to getting a Montgomery deal done quickly should the club move in that direction. Clearing the contract — or at least a portion of it — gives the front office more flexibility while many players remain available. A return of someone capable of filling a role would also check a box and allow the team to move onto another need. On the other side, there is a possibility teams that miss out on free agents are more willing to trade later.

The pitching market may be of assistance here, as Montgomery’s contract fits in with the average annual salaries of many free agent pitchers like Severino ($22.3 million) and Kikuchi ($21 million). Although Montgomery had a rough 2024, he was the significantly more valuable pitcher than the aforementioned two from 2021-23 and of similar age.

Arizona has the luxury of working from a strength having six starters with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez, Ryne Nelson and Montgomery. At the same time, the club also had to push through an extreme number of pitching injuries last year, as 14 pitchers started games.

How can the Diamondbacks help the lineup remain potent?

The D-backs will frankly have a different lineup in 2025. Walker and Pederson are free agents, and Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro said there is no chance they both return.

Adding power and platoon options, mixing and matching and showing faith in players after slow starts all paid off this past year. The Diamondbacks scored more runs than anybody, the most runs the franchise has produced since 1999 when the league was in a very different place with scoring.

What are the chances the Diamondbacks retain Christian Walker and Joc Pederson this offseason? pic.twitter.com/Oj8cI9HmhG

— Arizona Sports (@AZSports) December 5, 2024

What will the lineup look like strategically compared to last year, especially if the D-backs cannot bring back their free agents? There are plenty of veterans expected to land shorter deals out there to fill spots, and the D-backs have been successful in adding value through trades over the past few years. The D-backs possess depth in the outfield and have received calls about Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy.

The base remains strong with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte at the top, but the Diamondbacks have a first base question for the first time since 2019. Has Pavin Smith done enough to warrant regular playing time?

How will the Diamondbacks tackle their bullpen?

The D-backs plan to address the bullpen this offseason, and the reliever market is largely unmoved.

Aroldis Chapman signed with the Red Sox for a bit of a hefty $10.75 million price, but Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman, Carlos Estevez, Kirby Yates, Paul Sewald, Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen are all free agents. There is also a trade market to explore as to whether the Brewers would part with Devin Williams, the Cardinals with Ryan Helsley or the Pirates with David Bednar.

Arizona has late-inning options on the roster via Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson. But none of these relievers have been in the closer’s role over an extended period, so whether the D-backs want someone with experience finishing games to plug in or another option to compete for the job will be something to monitor.

Just how high can the Diamondbacks’ payroll reach?

Last year, the Diamondbacks set a franchise record at $172.8 million, boosted by a late decision to sign Montgomery. Reaching the World Series in 2023 provided a boon of playoff revenue to invest into the roster. Arizona missed out on those funds with a final-week collapse in September, but they attracted attendance numbers not seen since 2008, and the payroll is expected to be competitive with last year.

Is there a stars aligning situation that would allow the club to push further ahead for a competitive advantage like they felt with Montgomery?

The Diamondbacks have a lot of money coming off the books for next year. Montgomery ($22.5 million), Eugenio Suarez ($15 million), Gallen ($13.8 million estimated in arbitration) and Kelly will all be free agents and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a $13 million opt-out. Does looking forward a year impact the decisions to spend now?

Bonus: Do the Diamondbacks have their typical pre-winter meetings trade coming?

General manager Mike Hazen has made a November trade in three straight offseasons and has gotten a lot done before the winter meetings. Early in his tenure, Arizona made two franchise-defining trades early in the offseason. In November 2016, the D-backs traded for Marte. In December 2018, Arizona sent franchise face Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis.

Last year, the club added Suarez with the Mariners looking to shed salary, a move that paid dividends in the second half of 2024.

Another bonus: Will the Diamondbacks lose a prospect in the Rule 5 Draft?

Kristian Robinson appears to be the most intriguing flyer another team could take with his power and speed combination, but the former top prospect played his first full season since 2019 last year in Double-A.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Wednesday at noon MST.

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