Suns’ massive regression sets make-or-break stakes for January

PHOENIX — In the last seven weeks of 10 weeks into the 2024-25 NBA season, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the worst teams in the league.

Since Nov. 13, Phoenix is 6-15, the 25th-best win percentage (.286). Across that span, the Suns are 12th in offense and 26th in defense, via Cleaning the Glass’ numbers that eliminate garbage time. A 9-2 start that the efficiency charts said was fine offense and average defense carried by clutch-time prowess has indeed regressed to the mean.

On the season overall, the Suns are ninth in offense and 24th in defense. In Cleaning the Glass’ win projections that take into account a team’s efficiency differential and the win total that typically follows, the Suns sit at 36.4, 12th in the Western Conference.

For those brave enough to still find optimism in this season, Phoenix has dealt with lots of injuries, is 13-4 when Devin Booker and Kevin Durant play and is only 3.5 games back of the sixth seed for an automatic playoff spot.

But this most recent stretch, one we are halfway through that is full of light competition and has already featured some opponent injury luck, provides zero indication this group can figure out how to play together in enough time to still contend. Because remember, that’s what we are supposed to be watching. A team that has a chance to win a championship.

Phoenix is 3-9 over its last dozen that was kicked off by a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans, who are 2-26 since beginning the year 3-3.

There’s still time to turn it around. The last dozen games of this fortunate chunk of the schedule includes three games against teams above .500 and five versus squads who have yet to win 10 games.

But, man. Even just part of the way Phoenix is losing recently is demoralizing.

What’s gone wrong with the Phoenix Suns’ defense lately?

The Golden State Warriors, who sit 24th in rim frequency, picked Phoenix apart with simple buckets. You wouldn’t believe it by watching below, but the Suns actually defended well on the night. It was just these constant hiccups off great Warriors movement that made everything look easy.

There’s so much “that’s too easy” that I had to split the clips into three different sections.

Here’s the first quarter.

And the second.

Before things tightened up in the second half (sound familiar?), there were still had too many of these, particularly off switches on bigs.

This came on a night when the Suns only took 11 shots at the rim themselves. Phoenix is taking 23.4% of its shots at the rim, dead last in the NBA and nearly five percent lower than the 30th-place finisher last year (which was last year’s Warriors!). That figure is on pace for the lowest in Cleaning the Glass’ database since the 2007-08 Portland Trail Blazers.

How can the Suns get more?

“I think the randomness, getting different combinations in the pick-and-roll, I think maybe some more cutting and slashing away from the ball, taking advantage of I think two to the ball and then a hard guy rotating if and when we get it to the guy in the pocket,” Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer said after practice on Thursday.

To Budenholzer’s point, watch back some of those Warriors buckets again after reading that quote. Or see below at some of the similar scores Memphis had inside.

 

Clearly if this season continues down this path, even if it gets marginally better, we owe Frank Vogel a giant apology. A “I forgot our anniversary” level of apology.

Going beyond how the lack of on-court execution, organization and vibes seemed to be on him, with the vibes being the only thing that has improved (and with time for those to still sour), what he achieved defensively with last year’s far worse off personnel should be retroactively commended.

It’s not like the Suns made a mistake firing him. It had to happen. But on the nights he’s feeling petty instead of upset for the guys on the team he formed relationships with going through another struggle, I’m sure he’s getting a laugh out of this.

The drop-off in the defense by default is making things more difficult on the offense. Facing set defenses more frequently will always do that.

And with the combination of recent injuries to key reserves that space the floor and Phoenix’s need for more overall defensive energy/personnel, it is playing more of Ryan Dunn and Josh Okogie. The thing is, it has to happen and is the right call. The effect on the offense, however, is problematic.

The Suns’ spacing has cratered, and with Phoenix’s movement decreasing as well, it has been at times ugly. The turnovers are starting to add up even more.

These examples are not meant to absolve Durant, but rather emphasize how much his turnover problems can get further amplified by this.

Look at the Warriors’ help defense on these. An easy distinguisher is how many feet are in the key. Long-time readers will remember how opponents for the 2021-23 Suns would be dead in the water if even one foot was touching paint because of how great their spacing was.

In the next game, Dunn and Okogie tried to cut more but the problems persisted. Focus more on where those two are here instead of the defenders.

 

While these two games have been without Jusuf Nurkic (suspension), Phoenix plays two centers in he and Mason Plumlee who consistently show reluctance in finishing at the rim. This is nothing new for Nurkic but Plumlee used to be one of the most agile and springy bigs in the NBA before age caught up to him.

Plumlee is actually shooting a very good 75% around the basket, much higher than Nurkic’s 65%, per Cleaning the Glass. That, however, has come via passing up plenty of opportunities.

Dunn, a good short roll player at Virginia the Suns should use more in that role, makes a terrific pass here that Plumlee has to finish in the dunker’s spot.

Here’s another with poor Tyus Jones eating a turnover because of it.

Watching other average-to-below average centers match up with Phoenix emphasizes how much better it would be if it had someone of that caliber and how much of a Suns weakness it has become. Golden State’s Trayce Jackson-Davis produced 16 points, 10 rebounds, two assists, a steal and four blocks in 23 minutes (!) he dominated the interior for at an undersized 6-foot-9. Memphis’ Jay Huff gives the Grizzlies a stretch 5 element and was in the right spot defensively, hustling his ass off along with everyone else.

All of that is massively weighing down the offense because the usual baffling giveaways have not left us in the new season.

These are just some of the Suns’ issues as a team that can’t stay healthy and is suffering in other parts of the floor. The aforementioned next 12 games across the month of January will tell us if there’s progress being made, enough to believe a deep playoff run is still possible, or things continue moving south and it’s time for this era of Suns basketball to end.

Coincidentally, the stretch of games concludes 12 days before the trade deadline.

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