Suns’ future at center begins with free agency of Len, Williams

Free agency is upon us. As far as the Phoenix Suns are concerned, monumental moves aren’t expected.

A complementary piece here or there will be considered, but most pressing in terms of roster makeup and team identity, general manager Ryan McDonough must decide how the team’s future looks at center.

Alex Len and Alan Williams will likely enter restricted free agency — the Suns can extend qualifying offers to Len and Williams to make them restricted and must do so by June 29 — on completely different trajectories. How should the Suns handle the duo in the next few weeks?

Kevin Zimmerman: We’re going to delve into a conversation about Alex Len and Alan Williams here in a second, but I think it’s important to get our thoughts on Tyson Chandler out of the way. While the end of free agency and the addition or lack of veteran help will hint at whether he opens up to a trade — as he said at exit interviews — I think the futures of Len and Williams in Phoenix might be more about the Suns’ identity.

You wrote a column about positionless basketball before the draft, and I think Dragan Bender and Marquese Chriss gives the Suns zero reason to bring back both free agent centers along with Chandler, even on reasonable deals. So, which one of them do you think they re-sign? Or do you disagree?

Kellan Olson: Your central point here is very strong considering, like you said, who you are talking to.

On top of my belief that Chriss and more specifically Bender should both be playing some center for this team, Chandler was one of the team’s three best overall players last year. He was great. If they lose him to a trade because he’s not satisfied with the moves, that’s a big, big loss for this team trying to win games next season.

The question, like it was when the team drafted him, is if they see Bender as a long-term five. We still don’t know, but in his rookie season, he played lots of small forward. That’s how it might go again next year if he doesn’t play center because of Chriss and Jared Dudley playing the four (Dudley played PF when Bender was on the floor with him and there was nearly always a center with them).

That’s the counter-argument for signing Len or another center to be the backup to Chandler every night.

With Williams, though, it’s not unreasonable to pitch him as a good signing if he’s on a reasonable salary. That’s easier to get when he’s a restricted free agent.

He’s in the perfect pocket talent-wise as a change of pace with Bender at backup center, getting 10-25 minutes a night depending on matchup situations. That makes him somewhere around the 10th-11th man on the roster, and that feels right for him.

I believe they will at least re-sign Williams and should. He proved he’s an NBA player last year. Go ahead and continue on the point of what he showed last year and compare it to how poor, poor Len did in comparison.

KZ: Do you think there’s a good chance of Len re-upping in Phoenix?

I can see it from the standpoint that the center market is over-saturated and nobody gives Len a big pay-day. In that case, maybe he gets a reasonable deal closer to $10 million than $15 million. On the other hand, he’s still young and might thrive in the right situation elsewhere — I can’t think of that situation, but maybe it’s out there.

On our podcast, I presented the bold claim that because of Len’s down stock, it wouldn’t surprise me if Williams ended up getting more money than Len. No, his ceiling isn’t the same, but he’s a smart basketball player, has enough floater game to make up for his lack of finishing ability and legitimately might be a top-10 rebounder in the league.

Seriously, there’s a reason Williams appeared on ESPN’s list of top free agents when Len didn’t.

What do you think ends up happening with both Len and Williams at the end of the day?

KO: There’s some part of me that believes the Suns bring back Len. Whether that’s McDonough knowing he still has the potential you’re talking about, not wanting to let go of a top-5 pick so soon or hearing Watson talk about how much post basketball is coming back. With that said, he was horrendous last year and has failed to recreate his form from the 2014-15 season, when he looked like someone ready to dominate second units while he waited for his chance to start.

The cap went down to $99 million and even with a terrible free agent center pool, Len’s far down the list and I don’t think anyone will be interested in him when he’s restricted. Best-case scenario, no one offers him a three-to-four year deal and the Suns can bring him back on a one-to-two year deal to give him one last go to show if he’s still the talent they thought he was when they drafted.

All it takes, though, is one team that had Len top-2 on their draft board in 2013 and he’s gone. To give a concrete prediction, I believe the team will bring him back even though I think they should not.

It would be better to just re-sign Williams with no additional centers added beyond that.

I feel much stronger about the odds of Sauce being back. I was trying harder than anyone to wait for the cracks to show in his case for real rotation minutes but all he did was continue to prove me wrong. He’s good, but despite that, teams won’t want to pay what it takes to get the Suns to not match since he’s an energy big at the end of the day.

Your final prediction?

KZ: I think I can be in the same boat as you believing Williams returns and hold my brave prediction that he will also make more money. One of those things might end up being incorrect.

Here’s my pitch for Williams: Even for a backup center, he can make a good chunk of change that could be eight figures. While he’s neither traditional or new-wave, he’s large-bodied enough to be useful against big frontlines and skilled enough offensively to not be a zero in the halfcourt offense.

In other words, I think he’s for real with a lesser upside compared to Len. To me, that could make him a good chunk of change. Len, to me, is a much bigger risk when it comes to giving one of them a second contract, but if it’s about being fiscally responsible, maybe Len ends up being a better option. At this point, who can say?

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