These aren’t the same Cardinals that last faced the Seahawks

TEMPE, Ariz. — Kliff Kingsbury admits this version of the Arizona Cardinals offense isn’t close to what he envisioned when he took the job back in January.

Nearly a full year later, the rookie NFL head coach has stood out for dolling out credit to his assistant coaches.

Offensive line coach Sean Kugler, tight ends coach Steve Heiden and running backs coach James Saxon have helped him adapt the pro game to the Air Raid principals he perfected as coach of Texas Tech.

He’s also been quick to adjust. It’s something that Kingsbury’s predecessor, Steve Wilks, failed to do during 2018 and failed to convince team president Michael Bidwill of when looking toward a potential second year in charge.

As Arizona prepares to face the Seattle Seahawks this Sunday in Week 16, the team couldn’t look more different from just 12 weeks back — even though it’s still coached by Kingsbury and for the most part has the same faces on the offensive side of the ball.

In Week 4, the Cardinals suffered one of their least competitive losses of the season, a 27-10 defeat to the Seahawks at home.

To that point in the year, Arizona looked very much like an Air Raid team.

It lined up in 10 personnel (four receivers) 64% of the time. No other team had done so more than 15% of the time through Week 4.

Since, the Cardinals have used 10 personnel — one running back, zero tight ends — 29% of the time, instead using more tight ends in their formations while etching their identity as a successful running team.

By rushing Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), Arizona is second in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders.

Here’s a look at the drastic package changes (of the three most common personnel groupings) comparing the first four games to the last 10, courtesy of SharpFootballStats.com.

Weeks 1-4
Personnel grouping	Frequency	Success rate
10	64%	39%
11	23%	44%
12	8%	38%

Weeks 5-15
Personnel grouping	Frequency	Success rate
10	29%	43%
11	43%	49%
12	16%	38%

It should be pointed out that receiver Christian Kirk suffered an ankle injury at the same point that Arizona went away from a 10-personnel dominant setup.

But the Cardinals also began to realize tight ends Maxx Williams and Charles Clay brought pop from protections to the running game. Williams leads Arizona in Pro Football Focus’ grading system, and he’s the only player who earned a multi-year contract extension midseason.

Kingsbury also made the personnel grouping change to help out his offensive line, giving them additional help to protect rookie quarterback Kyler Murray.

It’s there where Kingsbury prioritized. Protecting Murray with blockers and not getting too aggressive with the quarterback’s running abilities were more important to hammering his Texas Tech ways into his team.

But the head coach is leaving the door open to revert back to a more air-oriented offensive attack next season.

This week, Kingsbury was at his most frank when discussing how the offense went from receiver-heavy to, well, heavy.

“Really just allowed us to take some things off the quarterback where it’s not just on him every single snap,” Kingsbury said. “It’s a process. We want to build this thing around him, and there will be a time when we can handle that, I believe. We want to work through that though.

“I think that was the biggest deal: It made us adjust some things and play a little bit different styles, probably more efficient and effective for us right now.”

Looking ahead, Arizona already knows it will be in decent shape at running back. It could potentially re-sign free agent Kenyan Drake. David Johnson and Chase Edmonds provide a lot of insurance if Drake finds big money elsewhere.

Is Kingsbury surprised about the evolution toward a ground attack in the first year of his NFL career?

“If you look back to 2012, we led the SEC in rushing,” he said of his one-year stint at Texas A&M. “Just remember that. One really good year.

“Whatever it takes to score and win games, that’s the bottom line. I think right now, when we can stay on schedule and have a healthy mix, we’re playing at a pretty high level offensively.”

As the Cardinals plan for next season in the final two games of 2019, a few priorities stand out for the offense.

Murray obviously must grow more comfortable as an NFL quarterback. The offensive line, which has free agents at each tackle spot, must come back strong.

As importantly, general manager Steve Keim must find answers at receiver, where the lack of experience and size has left Murray dinking and dunking the ball in the passing game and handing off to his stable of backs.

If you think the most glaring characteristic of the Air Raid isn’t showing this year after Kingsbury submitted to a more pro-style personnel situation, you’d be wrong.

The Cardinals for the year have lined up in 10 personnel 42% of the time for a total of 220 snaps.

The rest of the NFL? Thirty-one teams have lined up in that grouping 408 snaps combined with two games to go.

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