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Bracketology: What are March Madness models saying about ASU?

Arizona State head coach Bobby Hurley draws up a play for his team during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against UCLA on Thursday, Feb. 6, 2020, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Darryl Webb)

Following Arizona State’s men’s basketball’s three-game win streak, there’s some optimism around Tempe.

Nationally, a few NCAA Tournament models are looking up for the Sun Devils in a way that could affect a potential March Madness bid.

ASU has won five of the last six games, which includes three quadrant-one victories.

Using ASU’s NCAA Team Sheet and other predictive services, take a look at the team’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament, by the numbers.


ASU’s odds of making the tournament went up by 2%, according to TeamRankings. It’s modest growth, but this model thinks it’s more likely than not that the Sun Devils go dancing.

These odds have rocketed this month. Three months ago, TeamRankings gave ASU a 17% chance of making the NCAA Tournament. That’s an increase of almost 240%.


ASU’s net ranking did not change from last week to this. It remains at No. 53 after taking down UCLA and USC. It has risen three spots since Jan. 28, which was the ranking following ASU’s win over Arizona.


The Sun Devils now have three quadrant-one wins. They beat Arizona, with the No. 11 net ranking at home, Washington, with the No. 61 net ranking on the road and Oregon State, with a net ranking of 66.

The home win over No. 47 USC was a quadrant-two victory.

3, part two

ASU has three more quadrant-one games to play. It will travel to face No. 29 Stanford this week, play No. 25 Oregon at home the following weekend and then gets a matchup in Los Angeles against USC.

ASU is currently 3-6 overall against quadrant-one teams.


The KenPom rating has ASU right on the cusp of the tournament. This ranking looks upon ASU more favorably than it did two weeks ago, when the team was listed at No. 78.


To continue improving, ASU will have to get wins over two teams that have combined for a 22-5 home record this season. Stanford is a quadrant-one opponent, but Cal’s sparkling 10-3 home record is marred by the ghastly 0-7 away record. The Bears are a quadrant-three team — so a win wouldn’t do much, but a loss could hurt.


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