Bracketology: Little change in ASU odds as Pac-12 Tourney nears
Mar 9, 2020, 8:57 AM
(AP Photo/Matt York)
Arizona State men’s basketball bounced back from three straight losses to defeat Washington State on Saturday and clinch a first-round bye in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament.
As the third seed, the Sun Devils will play the winner of No. 6 Colorado and No. 11 WSU.
Even if disaster strikes and ASU loses in its first game — Colorado has beaten the Sun Devils twice this season and ASU split the series against WSU — is the current 20-11 crew assured of its third NCAA Tournament appearance in a row?
“We haven’t had one (Quadrant) 3 or Quad 4 loss. We have a number of Quad 1 wins and Quad 2 wins,” head coach Bobby Hurley said after ASU beat WSU on Saturday.
“I cant say like 100%, but I would imagine we are (in). We’ve had a great year, we’ve been a great story, we have one of the best, most dynamic players in college basketball that the country should get a chance to see.”
Here’s what odd predictors are saying.
Borderline projections
With five wins over Quadrant 1 teams and a 4-3 record over Quad 2 teams, ASU can make an argument it belongs, but its inclusion is not a certainty for a handful of metrics.
After the 1-1 week that included the loss to Washington, ASU’s NET ranking fell three spots to No. 52.
Its KenPom ranking continued to slide as well. The Sun Devils are now right on the verge of dropping out as they sit at the No. 64 spot. This is a six-spot drop since last week.
Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology has them in the tournament, but a loss in their first game might give him pause. Lunardi lists ASU as a 10th seed, the same as last week but down one spot from the week prior.
BracketMatrix also has ASU as a No. 10 seed, a one-spot drop from last week.
More confident
If you want some optimism, start with NCAA reporter Andy Katz’s Power 36. He lists ASU as the No. 29 team in the country, the third-best ranking in the Pac-12 behind Oregon (11) and USC (25). “I still believe this crew can cause problems this month,” Katz writes.
CBS’ Jerry Palm boosted ASU back up to an eighth seed from the No. 9 spot it occupied last week. He projects a first-round matchup with Marquette.
Team Rankings kept the Sun Devils stagnant as a ninth seed and estimated it had an 83% chance to make the tournament.
ASU’s best shot of ensuring inclusion is an obvious one: win. With a first-round bye and a wide-open field without a powerhouse in the conference this year, the Sun Devils have a chance to go into Selection Sunday worrying only about seeding, not whether or not they’ll be chosen.
“I think that we’re in, but now we have to go and perform and try and win a championship,” Hurley said.
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