By the numbers: Troubling trends for ASU basketball through 7 games

Arizona State came into the 2020-21 men’s basketball season with bluster for the right reasons.

The Sun Devils had two returning players who could put up 20 points per game with ease. Head coach Bobby Hurley’s best recruiting class was incoming.

Seniors Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr., plus freshman Josh Christopher, remain the real deal. A few glimpses at freshman forward Marcus Bagley were enough to throw his NBA prospects into hyperdrive.

Seven games in, however, and the Sun Devils as a team have concerning trends.

A loss to the UTEP Miners on Wednesday continued those issues. Hurley pointed to a lack of connectivity on his team, which has ebbed and flowed around the individual performances of its leader, Martin.

The issues go well beyond a few off games from Martin or others.

The numbers show concerning trends, even if ASU had a similar start last year before gelling in Pac-12 play.

Rebound margin

The Sun Devils have not won the rebounding battle since their season-opening win against Rhode Island.

It’s not about games in which field goal totals or percentages swing the rebounds into the opponent’s favor, either. ASU’s 100-77 blowout against Houston Baptist (1-5), in which the Sun Devils shot 55%, saw the Huskies grab four more rebounds.

ASU ranks 306th out of 328 NCAA teams with a 44.2% total rebounding rate, per College-Sports-Reference.com.

Being outrebounded by 8.2 boards per game ranks 302nd in the nation as well.

The only Power Five team ranked below ASU in both of those statistics is fellow Pac-12 member Utah at 43.6%.

The eventual return of Bagley, who has missed the last three games due to a leg injury, will help. He leads the team, averaging 5.8 rebounds per game.

But it’s still concerning for ASU that much of the rebounding load has been carried by its guards.

Part of this was predictable with the lack of bigs in the past few recruiting classes and the poorly timed transfer of big man Romello White after the 2019-20 season.

Still, Hurley’s team needs more rebounding production from starting big Jalen Graham or rotation forwards Taeshon Cherry and Kimani Lawrence. That’s why Hurley on Wednesday mentioned turning more to backup center Chris Osten.

Passing and shot selection

Though the Sun Devils have a roster full of ball handlers who can break down opponents off the bounce, it hasn’t led to ball movement. In theory, there should be more ability from this team to create easy opportunities once help defense is drawn.

Arizona State ranks 299th in the nation with only 44.1% of their baskets coming off assists.

For reference, four teams in college basketball have rates above 70%, while 212 teams have at least half of their shots assisted.

Statistically, the biggest problem in how ASU is scoring in the mid-range area. The shot selection strays far from analytical perfection.

Here’s a snapshot of Arizona State’s top scorers when they shoot two-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com.

— Remy Martin (16.9 points per game): Twenty-seven percent of his shots are two-point jumpers, and he hits only 41% of those.

— Alonzo Verge Jr. (15.4 points): Verge takes two-point jumpers on 19% of his shots, and he is shooting 30% on those attempts.

— Josh Christopher (15.4 points): Christopher, on the other hand, is a very good mid-range shooter, hitting 51.4% on two-point jumpers that make up 45.5% of his overall attempts. Only 11% of those are assisted.

Both Martin and Verge have been assisted on zero — none — of all of their two-point jumpers all year long, according to Hoop-Math.com. That amounts to 34 by-the-analytics-book inefficient shots so far this year between just two players. None of this is unique to this year.

Christopher gets somewhat of a pass because he’s making them. Add up the lack of ball movement and three players frequently taking mid-range jumpers, it adds up to too many inefficient possessions.

What are the fixes?

The rebounding issues will come down to effort and the return of Bagley, because there’s not much the Sun Devils can do personnel-wise beyond shuffling in more of Osten.

The guards can turn those pull-ups into kick-outs or more effort in getting to the rim. From there, passing lanes for open three-point looks should increase.

Here is where we mention what Arizona State is good at: Its best players are elite at putting pressure on the rim.

While Graham is a lanky rim-runner, Martin and Christopher have been elite at scoring off the bounce and in the paint. Martin and Christopher are shooting above 80% at the rim, and a lot of that is self-created.

Teams know this. They are packing the paint, and it’s going to force ASU to hit strike from deep, which they did not against UTEP in going 1-of-18 from three.

Verge has been ASU’s only regular who’s not shot poorly from three-point range. The Sun Devils have shot 33% as a team.

The other ASU players could trend closer to average with more comfort playing with one another, and Bagley’s return (10-of-25 from three) should help immensely.

Like the rebounding struggles, the personnel is lacking from a shooting standpoint. The Sun Devils do not have much for big men. They do not have proven, efficient three-point shooters after Verge and Bagley (40%).

Again, there’s massive room to improve because the talent is as advertised, even if those talents are redundant. That’s where it’s on players and Hurley’s staff to find ways to form that connectivity that’s been lacking, to help the team’s strengths outweigh the obvious holes.

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