Matthew Stafford’s recent success against Cardinals, downslide in 2021

After a roller coaster of a 2021, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will very much enjoy the fact that he has something going for him ahead of his first playoff game in five years, a Wild Card matchup on Monday hosting the Arizona Cardinals.

In his last six games against Arizona, Stafford holds a record of 4-1-1. That lone loss came in Week 4 this season, a 37-20 rout for Arizona. Prior to his first season in Los Angeles, Stafford went 3-0-1 over his four final games against the Cardinals while quarterbacking the Detroit Lions.

Oddly enough, Stafford’s 10 total games against the Cardinals are the fourth-most he’s had against any NFL opponent, with the NFC North’s three other teams obviously taking the higher spots.

The 33-year-old’s splits for those matchups did not come with consistency, which reflects how this season has gone for him as a whole.

Stafford was an MVP candidate through the Rams’ first eight games. He had 22 touchdowns and only four interceptions.

In his last nine games, though? Nineteen touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions as a whole are his most prolific numbers in nearly a decade. Against Arizona over two games, by the way, it’s five scores and just one pick for Stafford.

Looking at the recent turnovers, those include at least two tosses to a guy in the wrong jersey for each of his last three games.

Analyzing his post-Week 9 dropoff, the troubling trend for Stafford on his interceptions has been on his initial read.

Here’s a quick pick-six against Baltimore in Week 17.

Matthew Stafford has five interceptions over the last three weeks 😬

The Ravens (+6) took this one the other way for six.

📽️: @Ravenspic.twitter.com/5gCN9fqA6J

— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) January 2, 2022

Another from Week 9.

Kevin Byard gets the pick six off another Stafford interception ❗️pic.twitter.com/tRYZVB4yxr

— Def Pen Sports (@DefPenSports) November 8, 2021

Stafford threw four touchdowns not for his team this year.

That’s one of the problems Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar spotlighted when looking at Stafford’s troubles, and it goes the other way, too.

Prior to Week 18, Stafford had 11 of his interceptions when in the pocket longer than 2.5 seconds, one of the worst marks in football. As far as experienced quarterbacks go, only the risky gunslinger Josh Allen was worse.

But there’s a risk/reward factor there as well, per Farrar.

Allen has thrown 20 touchdown passes this season on longer-developing plays; Stafford has thrown 18. There has been an uptick in efficiency on longer-developing plays for Stafford in the second half of the season as he’s thrown seven touchdown passes to just three of those picks since Week 10, but it’s still a problem.

With that in mind, deep balls have been an issue for Stafford. Which, oddly enough, were one of his strengths with Detroit last season.

This season, it’s a different story with one particular line item. Stafford has completed 28 of 62 deep passes in 2021 for 1,172 yards and seven touchdowns — very similar to 2020 there. The difference, and it’s all the difference, is in the five deep interceptions. That’s where you get the drop in deep passer rating to 95.8.

Farrar goes on to highlight miscommunication and chemistry with pass-catchers as another sore spot before arriving at his conclusion, which is important to note.

Creating more “settled situations” would be good. Stafford is playing both too quickly and too slowly in the passing game as it’s currently constructed, but when he has schemed-open receivers, he has also shown the ability to use his arm to overcome certain diagnostic issues. Settling Stafford into the timing of the down might not happen this season, so it’s then up to McVay to create as many obvious targets for Stafford as he possibly can.

To translate that into Monday’s matchup, it sounds like Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph is potentially the key guy in this entire game. Joseph’s ability to essentially muck things up and make offenses off-kilter is part of what has him being talked about as a head coaching candidate this offseason.

The Cardinals’ defense doing it early is what will count. Stafford has easily been the best quarterback in the fourth quarter this season.

He led the league with a 126.4 passer rating and 71.6 completion percentage, per Football Database. In his 17 fourth quarters, Stafford has 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

So, to put a bow on it, the Cardinals making Stafford uncomfortable and continuing to rattle that cage that has been shaking for him the last two months before he gets to his happy place in the final frame will be of the utmost importance on Monday. If we’re looking at a one-score game in those last 15 minutes, the recent history does not bode well for Arizona.

Follow @KellanOlson