What changes for Phoenix Suns without Chris Paul, who needs to step up

In more ways than one, the Phoenix Suns are about to show us how good of a team they really are.

Point guard Chris Paul will be re-evaluated in six-to-eight weeks for an avulsion fracture in his right thumb. Six weeks would mean he’s returning with five regular season games to go. Eight weeks would mean he’s returning right when the first round of the postseason starts. Anything more would mean missing playoff games, and it’s Chris Paul, so that’s probably not happening.

Replacing Paul is impossible, not only because of how great of a player he is but also because there has never been another point guard like him in the history of basketball. There is an adjustment period to both playing with him and then again without him.

The Suns have done this a total of four times since Paul came to the Valley in November of 2020 and none of them came this season. There was one regular season game he missed last season for a sore hamstring, the season finale for rest and the opening two games of the Western Conference Finals due to COVID-19.

They’ll meet that threshold in a week once play resumes after the All-Star break and it comes during a funky portion of the schedule.

Phoenix will practice in Oklahoma City on Wednesday before playing the first game of a back-to-back against the Thunder and then fly back to Phoenix for a game Friday versus New Orleans.

On Sunday, it’s the first of two upcoming featured games on ABC with a matinee 1:30 p.m. tip-off, this one featuring the Utah Jazz.

From there, it’ll be a much needed two games in five days at home until a second three games in four days stretch, this time on the road. That first game is the other 1:30 p.m. ABC tip-off, this one in Milwaukee, before a Florida back-to-back in Miami and Orlando.

Paul accounts for 39.5% of the team’s assists, and his floor general acumen is obviously where Phoenix will miss him the most. But there’s also the other side of the coin, where Paul has only 16.6% of his field goals assisted, far and away the best self-creation number on the team.

Who does his absence affect the most? That’s a tough one, and we’re going to learn as the games come along.

We should start with who replaces him in the lineup. That’ll assuredly be Cam Payne once he returns from a right wrist sprain, an injury that’s held a day-to-day prognosis for a few weeks now.

In the meantime? Well, the big question is if head coach Monty Williams turns to Point Book. Williams has been rightfully tentative in the past to deploy Devin Booker as the primary initiator of the offense, a duty that demands more of Booker’s energy to be expended, even though it is when the offense can be at its best without Paul.

With the addition of Torrey Craig at the deadline, the improved play of Cam Johnson and the inconsistent play of Elfrid Payton, getting Johnson in the starting lineup and still having Craig plus the dependable Ish Wainright off the bench as wing depth are more good reasons.

If Payne isn’t ready out of the break, that might be the move. Anything else, though, does have to go back to Williams’ core point, especially before the postseason.

The central philosophy behind these 19-24 games should be to not wear down any of the core pieces while trying new stuff to add more layers for the playoffs and giving others a chance to get better with more opportunities. At least while that 6.5-game lead on the Golden State Warriors with a remaining strength of schedule of 25th remains as cozy as it is at the moment.

Deandre Ayton has only played 130 minutes without Paul this season. I’m sure he heard the talk surrounding the production of Jalen Smith and Bismack Biyombo, a running joke of how anyone could get 12 points as Paul’s pick-and-roll partner. He’s got the most to prove of anyone during this stretch, that he’s a borderline top five center regardless of if Paul’s his point guard or not.

Booker surprisingly is the slightest of smidges behind Ayton for the percentage of his assisted baskets coming just from Paul, 55.6% to Ayton’s 55.7%. This is not as surprising when you think about how Booker is utilized in the Suns’ offense. Paul is the guy to deliver Booker the ball when Booker goes through off-ball motion, one of the more underrated aspects of Booker’s game.

But Booker like anyone in this offense will occasionally get some buckets because of Paul’s two-man games.

A few weeks ago I took a look at how Mikal Bridges has been finding more of a prominent role in the Suns’ offense and how important it was, words I will re-direct you to now that hold even more weight while Paul heals up.

That formula for Bridges of catch-and-shoot 3s, transition, cuts, attacking closeouts, designed actions off the ball and some slip screens can be applied to Cam Johnson too. At this stage of his career, Johnson’s still got a ways to go before reaching his twin’s level as a midrange threat, but Johnson’s a great finisher shooting 74% at the rim, per Cleaning the Glass.

Johnson’s taken a huge leap as an offensive contributor, another road I’ve already walked down if you want to take another stroll, and Johnson can build off that even more.

When looking at the on- and off-court net ratings with Paul, Jae Crowder’s net rating drops from 11.9 to -0.5 in the 140 minutes he hasn’t played with Paul.

Paul’s own individual on/off court ratings see the team’s offensive rating sit at 115.9 when he’s in and 104.9 when he’s on the bench. For comparison, that’s going from the league’s top offense to 27th.

The defense, however, sports a 105.4 defensive rating when Paul plays (the team’s actual defensive rating, tied for third in the league) to a maximum-security prison of 100.7 without Paul that would healthily lead the league.

Individual on/off numbers like that are wonky and shouldn’t represent a player’s impact on either end, but to me, that says Crowder’s knockdown rate as a shooter and leading of the defense becomes even more important for Paul’s absence.

Payton noticeably had an elevated pep in his step after Aaron Holiday was acquired. He’s the purest point guard on the roster but that doesn’t absolve him from getting his minutes taken away by the likes of the already impressing Holiday or the eventually returning Payne and Landry Shamet (right ankle sprain).

Speaking of Shamet, perhaps the Suns’ giddy-up in pace when Paul rests (a midlevel 99.85 to a warping 104.13) can snap him out of his, to this point, season-long funk.

Payne was spectacular in those two WCF games Paul missed, including the performance of his life in Game 2 that was overshadowed by the Valley-Oop. He does not need to be even close to that for these two months but the confidence that he can reach that level on the biggest stage plus all these extra minutes should help him get back to his form from last season.

The Suns lose their point guard but they don’t lose their leader, and in the process, gain a borderline assistant coach. Paul is as involved as anyone on the sidelines and that’s only going to become more of the case as he rehabs his hand.

Everything comes back to Booker. He’s already shut up his doubters numerous times but not allowing the Suns to lose much of their mojo during this stretch would put those naysayers down for the count. I believe he’s a top 10 player in this league after what he accomplished in his first postseason, and if he plays like one through April, he’s going to have some new hardware.

All statistics via NBA.com/stats

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