ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Analytics site delves into D-backs 1B Christian Walker’s weird offensive year

Aug 5, 2022, 9:17 AM

Christian Walker’s long ball has worked this season. The Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman’s defense, by defensive runs saved, is among the best not only at his position but all of them, according to the The Fielding Bible and Sports Information Solutions.

His 15 defensive runs saved at first base is nine more than the next-best first baseman, by the numbers on Sports Info Solutions (SIS).

But from an offensive perspective, it’s been a down year. SIS writer Mark Simon dove into the why of Walker’s 25 home runs and .201 average so far. Part of it is just about how good opponents have played defense against him.

They’ve been aided by aggressive shifting, but bad luck also appears to be in play.

Opponents have 14 defensive runs saved with Walker at the plate. He has 19 fewer runs than expected, and he’s expected to have a .254 average based on the numbers available to SIS.

One element of Walker’s numbers not being where they could be is in how teams are defensing him. Walker, a right-handed hitter, has had more at-bats come against defensive shifts than ever before.

And those shifts have crushed his batting average – he’s 3-for-40 when hitting a ground ball or a short line drive against a fully shifted defense (three infielders on the pull side). As such, his ground ball numbers are nowhere near his career norms.

SIS further tags 11 plays expected to be a base hit that were categorized by the analytics service as “good fielding plays” by opponents.

Another curious thing: Walker’s homer numbers might be higher — it’s expected he’d be at 31 right now — if he and his teammates had more success at home, Simon adds.

Chase Field has seen 93 homers hit in Phoenix this season, but Diamondbacks away games have produced 137, making for the worst ratio in the majors, per SIS.

Anyway, a lot of bad luck appears to be dinging Walker, who is having a pretty darn good season all things considered.

He can at least say he’s making up for it with a stellar defensive season.

What separates Walker from his positional peers is his range, which accounts for all 15 of his Runs Saved, specifically the skill he has at handling a ball hit to his right.

He has converted 67 of 123 plays on balls hit in that direction in which he had a >0% chance of recording the out. He is the only first baseman at 50% or higher in that stat and is more than 10 percentage points better than anyone else with at least 50 such opportunities.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Catcher Carson Kelly #18 of the Arizona Diamondbacks prepares to take the field before the MLB game...
Tyler Drake

D-backs’ Carson Kelly dealing with forearm fracture, no timeline for return

The Arizona Diamondbacks will have to navigate the beginning of the regular season without starting catcher Carson Kelly.
1 day ago
Munetaka Murakami #55 of Team Japan celebrates after hitting a two-run double to defeat Team Mexico...
Associated Press

Japan walks off Mexico to set up World Baseball Classic final vs. USA

Shohei Ohtani sparked a ninth-inning rally as Japan walked off Mexico 6-5 to advance to the World Baseball Classic final against Team USA.
2 days ago
Tommy Henry #47 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches during the first inning of the game against the...
Arizona Sports

LHP Henry optioned as D-backs key in on final starting candidates

The Diamondbacks optioned Tommy Henry to Triple-A on Monday, whittling down their options to cement the backend of their starting rotation.
2 days ago
Starting pitcher Merrill Kelly #29 of Team USA throws a warm-up pitch during the first inning of th...
Alex Weiner

D-backs’ Merrill Kelly set up to start World Baseball Classic final for Team USA

Team USA "looks like" it will turn to Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly in the World Baseball Classic final on Tuesday. 
2 days ago
Paul Goldschmidt #46 of Team USA celebrates with Moookie Betts #3 after hitting a two-run home run ...
Associated Press

Turner, Goldschmidt lead Team USA to WBC final with win vs. Cuba

Defending champion United States romped over Cuba 14-2 on Sunday night to reach its second straight World Baseball Classic final.
3 days ago
David Peralta #6 and Eduardo Escobar #5 of the Arizona Diamondbacks celebrate after scoring on a si...
Haboob Blog

Former D-backs OF David Peralta rekindles Eduardo Escobar’s cat fear with Team Venezuela

David Peralta had some fun with Eduardo Escobar's fear of cats when they were teammates with the Diamondbacks.
2 days ago
Analytics site delves into D-backs 1B Christian Walker’s weird offensive year