EMPIRE OF THE SUNS

Suns close to locking in homecourt to start playoffs. Here’s who they could play

Apr 3, 2023, 9:01 AM

Los Angeles Lakers' Anthony Davis (3) tries to get around Phoenix Suns' Deandre Ayton during the fi...

Los Angeles Lakers' Anthony Davis (3) tries to get around Phoenix Suns' Deandre Ayton during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Phoenix, Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Darryl Webb)

(AP Photo/Darryl Webb)

A five-game winning streak has the Phoenix Suns feeling good about their playoff positioning considering all the ups and downs that 2022-23 brought.

The Suns (43-35) as of Monday sit in fourth place in the Western Conference with a 2.5-game lead on the No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers and No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors, who are each 41-38 with three games to go.

Holding a two-team tiebreaker over both those teams, one win by Phoenix or loss by either will give the Suns the advantage to finish above those two squads by straight-up record as well.

With four games to play, Phoenix sits four games back of the third-seeded Sacramento Kings, so the magic number is one Kings win or Suns loss to make it mathematically impossible for Phoenix to reach the No. 3 slot.

According to Basketball-Reference simulations, the Suns have a 97.5% shot of finishing in the No. 4 seed. There are sub-2% odds of landing in the fifth or sixth seeds and without homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Phoenix has already avoided a play-in game possibility.

So with that seeding nearly settled, who might the Suns play if they are the No. 4 seed or in the unlikely scenario of falling to No. 5? There are five teams who could match up with the Suns at this point as the fourth or fifth seed: the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Los Angeles Lakers or, in a very unlikely scenario, the Minnesota Timberwolves.

We used the Basketball-Reference simulations — teams sitting players out could alter the accuracy of those simulation results — to paint a picture of who the Suns could see in the first round.

We’ll get into those teams’ tiebreakers with one another later this week, if need be.


Phoenix Suns playoff opponent and tiebreaker tracker

No. 5 seed – Los Angeles Clippers (41-38)

Chances of finishing as the No. 5 seed: 38.2%

Games left: vs. Lakers (Wednesday), vs. Trail Blazers (Saturday), at Suns (Sunday)

Who has the tiebreaker? Suns — LOCKED

First tiebreaker – Suns’ record vs. them: 2-1 with one game left (season finale on Sunday)

Second tiebreaker – Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division: Not applicable unless the Suns catch the Kings

Third tiebreaker – Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division: Phoenix at 9-5 in the Pacific Division could be caught but not surpassed by the 7-7 Clippers with each team having two intra-division games left.

Fourth tiebreaker – Conference won-lost percentage: The Suns at 28-20 have a lead on the Clippers’ 24-25 record and can’t be caught because the Clippers only have three total games left.


No. 6 seed – Golden State Warriors (41-38)

Chances of finishing as the No. 5 seed: 17.6%

Games left: vs. Thunder (Tuesday), at Kings (Friday), at Trail Blazers (Sunday)

Who has the tiebreaker? Suns — LOCKED

First tiebreaker – Suns’ record vs. them: 3-1 with no games left


No. 7 seed – Los Angeles Lakers (40-38)

Chances of finishing as the No. 5 seed: 16.9%

Games left: at Jazz (Tuesday), at Clippers (Wednesday), vs. Suns (Friday), vs. Jazz (Sunday)

Who has the tiebreaker? Suns – LOCKED

First tiebreaker – Suns’ record vs. them: 2-1 with one game left

Second tiebreaker – Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division: Likely not applicable

Third tiebreaker – Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division: The Suns at 9-5 will finish with a better division record than the 5-9 Lakers, as each team only has two Pacific Division games remaining on their schedules.


No. 8 seed – New Orleans Pelicans (40-38)

Chances of finishing as the No. 5 seed: 24.5%

Games left: vs. Kings (Tuesday), vs. Grizzlies (Wednesday), vs. Knicks (Friday), at Timberwolves (Sunday)

Who has the tiebreaker? Pelicans

First tiebreaker – Suns’ record vs. them: 2-2 with no games left

Second tiebreaker – Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division: Likely not applicable

Third tiebreaker – Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division: Not applicable

Fourth tiebreaker – Conference won-lost percentage: The Suns at 28-20 (.583) have a tiny advantage on the Pelicans’ 28-21 (.571) record. All four of the Suns’ game left are against Western Conference teams, while New Orleans has three of its four versus the West.


No. 9 seed – Minnesota Timberwolves (39-40)

Chances of finishing as the No. 5 seed: 1.3%

Games left: at Nets (Tuesday), at Spurs (Saturday), vs. Pelicans (Sunday)

Who has the tiebreaker? Suns — LOCKED

First tiebreaker – Suns’ record vs. them: 3-1

Comments

Comment guidelines: No name-calling, personal attacks, profanity, or insults. Please keep the conversation civil and help us moderate comments by reporting abuse.
comments powered by Disqus

Empire of the Suns

Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets is guarded by Kevin Durant #35 of the Phoenix Suns during th...

Kellan Olson

Suns respond to season’s low point with thorough win over Nuggets

The guessing game of which Suns team shows up on which night persists. The best current version did on Wednesday in a win over the Nuggets.

10 hours ago

Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns argues a call with official Pat Fraser n the first half as Jere...

Kellan Olson

Suns stumble through latest inexcusable effort, lose to shorthanded Spurs

The Phoenix Suns followed up Saturday's win over the San Antonio Spurs with Monday's offering being more of what we've come to expect.

3 days ago

Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns drives in front of Keldon Johnson #3 of the San Antonio Spurs i...

Kellan Olson

Phoenix Suns find better energy for clinical win over Spurs

The Phoenix Suns were overdue for a win like Saturday's 131-106 final over the San Antonio Spurs, taking care of business early.

5 days ago

Jusuf Nurkic #20 of the Phoenix Suns passes over Kyle Lowry #7 of the Philadelphia 76ers during the...

Kellan Olson

Suns work through typical turnover problems to defeat 76ers

The Phoenix Suns dealt with some of their usual issues while managing a comfortable win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

7 days ago

Isaiah Thomas #4 of the Charlotte Hornets looks on prior to the game against the Miami Heat at FTX ...

Kellan Olson

Isaiah Thomas returns to NBA, Suns after injuries derailed his career in its prime

Isaiah Thomas' NBA journey is a unique one. Here's how he thinks he can help the 2023-24 Phoenix Suns in a return to the league.

8 days ago

Phoenix Suns head coach Frank Vogel looks on during the second quarter against the Boston Celtics  ...

Kellan Olson

Suns in serious jeopardy of play-in tournament fate entering last month of season

You wouldn't have guessed it by watching them over the last two games but the Phoenix Suns are in a precarious position.

9 days ago

Suns close to locking in homecourt to start playoffs. Here’s who they could play