NHL Draft Lottery primer: Coyotes have slim odds to land No. 1 pick

May 7, 2023, 7:17 AM

Connor Bedard NHL Draft lottery preview...

Forward Connor Bedard #98 of the Regina Pats skates for Team Red during the 2023 Kubota CHL Top Prospects Game Practice at the Langley Events Centre on January 25, 2023 in Langley, British Columbia. (Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)

(Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)

In February, as the Arizona Coyotes rode a points streak, general manager Bill Armstrong laughed off his best player, forward Clayton Keller, admitting that his boss probably wasn’t too happy with the team’s run of success.

“There was a joke between him and I coming off the ice … and he was laughing,” Armstrong told Arizona Sports’ Bickley & Marotta. “I think what he probably meant underneath that was: ‘We’re not going according to plan right now. We’re having a little bit of fun.’

Admitted by Armstrong or not, there was reason to worry about success that landed the rebuilding — and relatively surprising — Coyotes with the sixth-fewest points in the NHL rather than the fewest.

Arizona went 28-40-14 this season to finish with 70 points.

A single ping-pong ball could have a ripple effect on Monday at 5 p.m., when the NHL Draft Lottery orders the selections.

High-scoring forward Connor Bedard is the top prize as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, but University of Michigan star Adam Fantilli would be quite a return for whichever team gets the No. 2 pick. The tantalizing talent of Bedard and Fantilli was an undercurrent throughout a season when the bottom of the standings was almost as interesting as what was going on at the top.

Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson also are expected to go in the top five.

Arizona has a 7.5% shot of landing the No. 1 draft pick and a 7.7% shot at No. 2.

The Coyotes are most likely to select seventh (41.4%) or sixth (34.1%) but can’t fall further than eighth (9.1%).

Land one of those top spots in the May 8 lottery, and a rebuilding team could decide to accelerate its timeline through free agency. The franchise that takes a chance on Michkov, who has a more uncertain future because of his contract with his Russian team, could position itself for another top pick in 2024.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

2023 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AVG
25.5 18.8 55.7 2.3
13.5 14.1 30.7 41.7 3.0
11.5 11.2 7.8 39.7 29.8 3.7
9.5 9.5 0.3 15.4 44.6 20.8 4.4
8.5 8.6 0.3 24.5 44.0 14.2 5.1
7.5 7.7 0.2 34.1 41.4 9.1 5.9
6.5 6.7 0.2 44.4 36.5 5.6 6.7
6.0 6.2 0.2 54.4 30.0 3.2 7.6
5.0 5.2 0.2 64.4 23.5 1.7 8.5
3.5 3.7 0.1 73.3 18.4 0.9 9.6
3.0 3.2 0.1 79.9 13.4 0.5 10.5
5.1 0.1 0.1 85.7 8.9 0.2 11.6
4.2 >0.0 >0.0 90.7 5.1 >0.0 12.6
3.2 >0.0 >0.0 94.7 2.1 >0.0 13.7
1.1 >0.0 97.9 1.1 14.9
1.1 98.9 15.9

Arizona Coyotes

NHL Global Series - Arizona Coyotes v Los Angeles Kings...

Arizona Sports

Coyotes conclude Australia series with Kings, Josh Doan scores hat trick in split-squad action

Josh Doan -- son of Shane Doan -- scored a hat trick for the Coyotes against the St. Louis Blues in preseason action.

6 days ago

Logan Cooley, #3 pick by the Arizona Coyotes, poses for a portrait during the 2022 Upper Deck NHL D...

Arizona Sports

Cooley scores spin-o-rama goal as Coyotes beat Kings in first NHL preseason game in Australia

Coyotes rookie Logan Cooley scored a nifty, highlight-reel goal and Arizona beat the Los Angeles Kings, 5-3, in the NHL's first preseason game played in the Southern Hemisphere.

7 days ago

The Arizona Coyotes beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3 at Mullett Arena in Tempe, Ariz., on Dec. 29, ...

Arizona Sports

Arizona Coyotes extend partnership with Arizona Sports

The Arizona Coyotes have announced a one-year partnership extension with Bonneville Phoenix to continue broadcasting the team's games.

9 days ago

Jan Jenik...

Arizona Sports

Arizona Coyotes sign forward Jan Jenik to 2-way contract

The Arizona Coyotes announced Wednesday that they signed forward Jan Jenik to a one-year, two-way contract.

10 days ago

Logan Cooley walks toward the stage after being selected third overall by the Arizona Coyotes durin...

Aaron Schmidt

Logan Cooley wants to ‘thrive in NHL,’ make impact with Coyotes

Rookie sensation Logan Cooley is excited to not only make an impact with the Arizona Coyotes, but the NHL too.

11 days ago

General manager Bill Armstrong of the Arizona Coyotes during Round One of the 2022 Upper Deck NHL D...

Aaron Schmidt

New Coyotes signings ready to make impact

Under GM Bill Armstrong, the Arizona Coyotes have been in a slow rebuild. However, this offseason's signings could make a noticeable impact.

14 days ago

NHL Draft Lottery primer: Coyotes have slim odds to land No. 1 pick