NHL Draft Lottery primer: Coyotes have slim odds to land No. 1 pick

May 7, 2023, 7:17 AM

Connor Bedard NHL Draft lottery preview...

Forward Connor Bedard #98 of the Regina Pats skates for Team Red during the 2023 Kubota CHL Top Prospects Game Practice at the Langley Events Centre on January 25, 2023 in Langley, British Columbia. (Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)

(Photo by Dennis Pajot/Getty Images)

In February, as the Arizona Coyotes rode a points streak, general manager Bill Armstrong laughed off his best player, forward Clayton Keller, admitting that his boss probably wasn’t too happy with the team’s run of success.

“There was a joke between him and I coming off the ice … and he was laughing,” Armstrong told Arizona Sports’ Bickley & Marotta. “I think what he probably meant underneath that was: ‘We’re not going according to plan right now. We’re having a little bit of fun.’

Admitted by Armstrong or not, there was reason to worry about success that landed the rebuilding — and relatively surprising — Coyotes with the sixth-fewest points in the NHL rather than the fewest.

Arizona went 28-40-14 this season to finish with 70 points.

A single ping-pong ball could have a ripple effect on Monday at 5 p.m., when the NHL Draft Lottery orders the selections.

High-scoring forward Connor Bedard is the top prize as the consensus No. 1 overall prospect, but University of Michigan star Adam Fantilli would be quite a return for whichever team gets the No. 2 pick. The tantalizing talent of Bedard and Fantilli was an undercurrent throughout a season when the bottom of the standings was almost as interesting as what was going on at the top.

Matvei Michkov and Leo Carlsson also are expected to go in the top five.

Arizona has a 7.5% shot of landing the No. 1 draft pick and a 7.7% shot at No. 2.

The Coyotes are most likely to select seventh (41.4%) or sixth (34.1%) but can’t fall further than eighth (9.1%).

Land one of those top spots in the May 8 lottery, and a rebuilding team could decide to accelerate its timeline through free agency. The franchise that takes a chance on Michkov, who has a more uncertain future because of his contract with his Russian team, could position itself for another top pick in 2024.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.

2023 NHL Draft Lottery Odds

TEAM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 AVG
25.5 18.8 55.7 2.3
13.5 14.1 30.7 41.7 3.0
11.5 11.2 7.8 39.7 29.8 3.7
9.5 9.5 0.3 15.4 44.6 20.8 4.4
8.5 8.6 0.3 24.5 44.0 14.2 5.1
7.5 7.7 0.2 34.1 41.4 9.1 5.9
6.5 6.7 0.2 44.4 36.5 5.6 6.7
6.0 6.2 0.2 54.4 30.0 3.2 7.6
5.0 5.2 0.2 64.4 23.5 1.7 8.5
3.5 3.7 0.1 73.3 18.4 0.9 9.6
3.0 3.2 0.1 79.9 13.4 0.5 10.5
5.1 0.1 0.1 85.7 8.9 0.2 11.6
4.2 >0.0 >0.0 90.7 5.1 >0.0 12.6
3.2 >0.0 >0.0 94.7 2.1 >0.0 13.7
1.1 >0.0 97.9 1.1 14.9
1.1 98.9 15.9

Arizona Coyotes

Lawson Crouse of Canada, Milan Lucic of Canada and Peyton Krebs of Canada Team Canada celebrates af...

Associated Press

Lawson Crouse scores, Andre Tourigny-coached Canada defeats Germany to win hockey worlds

Arizona Coyotes' Lawson Crouse scored for Canada in a 5-2 victory over Germany in the final of the ice hockey world championship on Sunday.

2 days ago

Mesa Mayor John Giles, Tempe mayor Corey Woods...

Arizona Sports

Mesa mayor ‘encouraging’ Coyotes to look at private sites for new arena

Could the Arizona Coyotes find a new arena home in Mesa and find a way to avoid a public vote like the squashed Tempe plans required?

8 days ago

Logan Cooley #92 of the Minnesota Golden Gophers warms up before a game against the Quinnipiac Bobc...

Wills Rice

Coyotes prospect Logan Cooley to stay 1 more year in college

Arizona Coyotes highly regarded center prospect Logan Cooley announced he is staying in college for one more year.

10 days ago

Clayton Keller, Arizona Coyotes...

Arizona Sports

Arizona Coyotes reportedly inquire about Mesa’s Fiesta Mall site in arena land search

Mesa's old Fiesta Mall footprint is among the land the Arizona Coyotes have inquired about, CBS5's and 3TV's Dennis Welch reported Thursday.

12 days ago

Mullett Arena, Arizona Coyotes, tempe...

Arizona Sports

Coyotes to play at Mullett Arena in 2023-24, seeking new Valley site

The Arizona Coyotes expect to play at Mullett Arena as planned in the 2023-24 season amid uncertainty about their future, the team confirmed.

13 days ago

Arizona Coyotes Tempe arena...

Jake Anderson

Hockey world reacts to Tempe voters’ rejection of Coyotes’ arena plan

One of the Arizona Coyotes' captains and a face of the franchise Clayton Keller made his reaction felt with one simple emoji.

13 days ago

NHL Draft Lottery primer: Coyotes have slim odds to land No. 1 pick