Western Conference power rankings, Part 2: Where are the Suns?

After covering the bottom-half of the Western Conference and how the offseason changed the picture, it’s time to dig in on the real class out of these 15 teams. It’s Part 2 of our Western Conference power rankings.

Tier 4 — How are we not in an automatic playoff spot

7. Memphis Grizzlies

This should be a 50-win team again like it has been in the past. We’ve been deprived of Ja Morant for so long that Anthony Edwards took his place in the superstar hierarchy and we forget Morant is just as fun to watch. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. got to expand their offensive roles during the mess of last season while Memphis got to discover potential rotation finds like Vince Williams Jr. and G.G. Jackson.

Oh yeah, Marcus Smart is on this team! He’s great too! And Brandon Clarke! Then there’s rookie Zach Edey, who slips into the starting center role and should be a plus player in a limited role of 20-25 minutes a night immediately.

But there’s something not quite right here.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has had an odd career. We all know he is a very good player. He also can’t rebound and fouls a lot, which relegates him to the 4 where he is shooting 32.6% from 3 the last four seasons. Bane is a large variable too, someone with All-Star upside entering Year 5 after missing significant chunks of the last two seasons due to injury.

Edey will surprise you with how well he runs the floor and moves defensively in his drop coverage zones. The scoring touch around the rim is as advertised and a two-man game with Morant will be money from the jump. Edey is also not Steven Adams, a master at what he did over the years in all the little nuances that make great big men great. Replacing all that with a rookie is tough sledding.

Williams is absolutely ready to be a playoff-caliber wing. G.G. Jackson was a terrific story and can really score, while the other stuff remains to be seen. Memphis is lucky it hit on Bane because everyone else it has drafted since to play off Morant has been underwhelming. Maybe Jake LaRavia defies that trend in his third season?

All that before getting to Morant, a story that speaks for itself. There’s just the ask of needing to see it to believe it. The same was asked in this space a year ago of Dallas and Minnesota.

Oftentimes the tiebreaker is coaching. Taylor Jenkins is great and has a connection with his guys. With that, we’ll give Memphis the benefit of the doubt.

6. Sacramento Kings

The Kings were a delightful story two years ago, nearly upsetting the Golden State Warriors in the first round and putting Sacramento back on the map.

Then, last year happened. They were slightly worse, got mostly bad contributions from the supporting cast around their two stars and that was enough to miss the playoffs.

Sacramento took a responsive swing by acquiring DeMar DeRozan, the most underrated player of his generation. DeRozan’s career has unfortunately withered away since he was traded by Toronto six years ago. There’s another version of his time where he’s made seven or eight All-NBA teams by now instead of just three. He’s a phenomenally great offensive player and gets a chance on a good team here to show everyone what he’s about.

The Kings will love his injection of half-court scoring and creation off of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk. DeRozan and Fox in crunch time is as deadly of a pairing as any.

The defensive fit is not ideal. Kevin Huerter had a weird season and presumably moves to the bench so Keon Ellis, the lone bright spot out of last year’s role player exploration crew, can get his defense involved more prominently. It’s a huge year for Keegan Murray to go from, “Hey, he’s not bad!” to a legitimately great complementary wing player. Trey Lyles has been pretty reliable for Sacramento and he all of a sudden becomes a lot more needed with Harrison Barnes’ departure.

The challenge for Mike Brown is getting the most out of Fox, Monk and electric factory rookie Devin Carter while still letting DeRozan and Sabonis do what they do. If Ellis was 6-foot-8 that’d be awesome but he’s the size of a point guard just like that trio. This is a small team. If Brown figures that out, this is a top-3 offense again and a squad firmly in the top-six. If not, it’s play-in time again.

I’m betting on them figuring it out and DeRozan pushing them over the top.

Tier 3 — Trust issues (but I still trust you for some reason)

5. Phoenix Suns

Phoenix gets bumped up to this tier because it should be a very, very good team in the regular season. None of those other teams offer the same assurance they will finish top-six.

Mike Budenholzer deserves all the hype for his ability to rack up victories and while “we still won 49 games” turned into an offseason meme it’s easy to see how that number gets to the mid-50s. If the Suns are a below-average team in the fourth quarter, that’s a few on its own. Add in a full season of Royce O’Neale, Bradley Beal being healthy to start the year and Tyus Jones’ implementation notching down the turnovers while notching up the offensive organization for a few more. If Bol Bol or Ryan Dunn can add something, this is suddenly a deep team too.

And then imagine if this team looks like it enjoys basketball again! Oh boy!

The problems have more to do with projecting for the postseason but aren’t any bigger than the next two teams.

With Jones, Phoenix is tiny. Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City are the MonStars in comparison. Dallas offers its own size issues too when you remember Luka Doncic is 6-foot-8 and 240 pounds. You can’t get to the Western Conference Finals before facing one of those four squads. The Suns majorly lack on-ball juice to defend the big-time weapons on any team, so that plus rebounding concerns is a recipe for a very bad defensive team.

Offensively, the Suns still have to show they can form a cohesive rhythm around Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. Jones will help, as will Budenholzer. That doesn’t mean they alone can completely fix it. It’s on those three and now those three have to shoot even more 3s after they didn’t listen to the coaching staff last season. A low-key concern here is removing Grayson Allen from the starting lineup. You know, the expert launcher of triples and the unsung connective piece who busted his ass last year more than anyone on the team. Finding Beal his touches gets even more difficult with Jones in there for Allen as well.

4. Denver Nuggets

Disclaimer: I understand how irrational it would appear to put these two teams in the same range. But let me explain!

Blahblahblah, the Nuggets were cheap in letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown go. Blahblahblah, no one can reasonably trust their young players to replace those guys (just like last year).

What’s more interesting here is the remaining core beyond the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic.

Jamal Murray is a pretty good NBA point guard who transforms into a superstar for the postseason. But he didn’t hatch this last go-around, shooting 40% and looking bothered by his latest injury. Two-and-a-half months later, Murray was still not moving well at the Olympics for Team Canada, bad enough for speculation to begin if he’s lost his burst entirely. The lack of explosiveness and space creation was quite alarming. While it’s not what defines his game, every guard requires some level of that, even the slower ones. Is he still that guy, pal?

In his last three full seasons, Michael Porter Jr. has had a notable bump in his scoring averages after the All-Star break. It seemed like that breakout was coming, Porter morphing into a 25-point-per-game guy and the third All-Star of this group. It just hasn’t happened yet and he’s 26 years old now. Either this is who he is, a great complementary piece to stars, or an elite enough talent to be mentioned right alongside Jokic and Murray.

Remember thinking that to a lesser degree with Aaron Gordon? He wound up getting to Denver and accepting a lesser role to become one of the most valuable role players in all of basketball.

The real question is if any of those three guys can be better next season in a way to supplant the lack of depth given how this is now a more top-heavy roster. Jokic doesn’t have any more new heights to reach. That’s the three-time MVP, brother. Murray is going in the wrong direction while Porter and Gordon have understandably stagnated. This did not matter when the Nuggets were armed with a balanced, lethal top of the rotation. It matters now.

To be clear, Denver should still win a whole lot of games. It’s just that the ice will crack as soon as a somewhat significant injury comes, and we’re talking about Murray and Porter. The Nuggets will now remain a step behind the next three teams come playoff time unless Christian Braun, Julian Strawther or Peyton Watson emerges as more than just a reliable rotation player. Braun knows how to impact games in an all-around way, Strawther can really shoot and Watson can really defend. Keep an eye on how that trio does.

Tier 2 — The third elite team

3. Dallas Mavericks

Crafting an argument for regression is difficult. The foundation of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving is stronger than it has any right to be. P.J. Washington’s seamless transition into an agitator who takes defense seriously while making every energy play he can was one of the pleasant surprises of last season. A center rotation of Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford is as good as any.

Naji Marshall will ease the impact of losing Derrick Jones Jr. with a slightly different skill set. He’s been quietly good behind some not-as-quietly really good wings in New Orleans the past three seasons and Dallas noticed. But he’s going to have to shoot it. Jones did enough and while Marshall is coming off a 38.7% knockdown rate from 3, his career numbers are 31.3% on 2.4 attempts per game. Jones, not a volume shooter, squeaked out 34.3% on 3.1 a night. Marshall is a better connector and that will help a lot.

The overarching question is if Dallas needs a great version of Klay Thompson to win the West. Thompson can score and shoot off the bench in bunches, as he did at the tail-end of the regular season when he fully immersed himself into a reserve role. And to the previous point on Marshall, Thompson will really help heighten the decision-making by the guys catching the kick-outs from Doncic and Irving. But his days as a serviceable defender are behind him and it’s not like there’s much shot creation left in the tank, either.

It doesn’t feel like the Mavericks require all that. Unlike Phoenix, Dallas won’t be in a position where it has no choice but to close with Thompson and play three perimeter players who bring red flags defensively. He will be in the Sixth Man of the Year running.

Two names to monitor are Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Quentin Grimes, with either’s trusted inclusion into the rotation giving the Mavericks enough depth to really compete.

Prosper is a 6-foot-8, 230-pound wing with a 7-foot-1 wingspan who was a first-round pick last year. He wasn’t ready for NBA minutes right away. Dallas would be perfectly set on the wing if it could sprinkle him in with Marshall and Washington. It surprised us with Lively last year. Maybe the Mavericks can do it again.

Dallas got back Grimes from Detroit when it salary dumped Tim Hardaway Jr. to Detroit, a move that surprised a lot of people. Grimes was legitimately good for the New York Knicks two years ago and the key player coming to the Pistons when it moved Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. Perhaps Detroit knows something we don’t on Grimes but bad teams tend to repeatedly do stupid things and you can’t help but get a whiff of that here for letting go of a sturdy defender and good shooter at guard.

These guys can win the West again. The foundation is just less concrete than the two top dogs.

Tier 1 — Complete and excellent basketball teams

2. Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota is really damn good. And young. We know Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid aren’t done getting better yet. On top of that, it quietly had the best NBA Draft night.

We spent months in the Valley speculating what an unprotected 2031 first-round pick could fetch and the T-Wolves turned it into the No. 8 pick and Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham, a bucket collector with lots of sauce to his game. Then they got Illinois’ Terrence Shannon Jr. in the late first round, one of the best fits for a contender in the entire draft (and he absolutely looked the part in Vegas). Both those guys add tons of juice to areas on the second unit that were lacking in explosiveness and big-play ability to the degree of Reid.

But this is more of a win-now situation than you’d think at first glance.

Mike Conley is crucial to what makes this team work and is 37 years old. We watched him control portions of that first-round series against Phoenix when Edwards was struggling to make the right reads in half-court looks. Rudy Gobert just turned 32 and is two years away from unrestricted free agency, just like Reid. And prized reserve guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker will go from making $4.3 million this year to a whole hell of a lot more from whoever he signs with next summer.

This team is about to get a whole lot more expensive and is already on pace to pay the second-highest luxury tax bill in the league. Did I mention they are going through ownership drama?

This is not to say Minnesota is about to make some crazy trade because of this but the clock is ticking already and the pressure of knowing that can affect teams sometimes, so it’s worth a mention. The key is again those two rookies because everyone else is absolute nails. If Dillingham and Shannon are good right away, the T-Wolves will threaten for 60-plus wins. They think Dillingham is and should feel just as certain Shannon is. If not, the signing of 37-year-old Joe Ingles starts to get a little too important to their liking.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City is the most complete team in the NBA.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander headlines as a certified star, the closest thing we’ve had to Ken Griffey Jr. since The Kid in terms of how cool, effortless and smooth an athlete makes greatness look. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were better than expected last year and will make multiple All-Star teams. The league’s best trio of perimeter defenders is arguably Alex Caruso, Luguentz Dort and Cason Wallace. All six of those guys shoot it well, and that’s before getting to the sharpshooter on the team Isaiah Joe.

The Thunder overpaid massively for Isaiah Hartenstein in a *shrug* “Well, we’ve got the money, might as well use it” move to fill their only real need of size. Hartenstein defined himself in New York as a rugged, reliable player around the basket but actually was known as a versatile playmaking big coming out of the draft. Don’t be surprised if his passing pops and that he even starts knocking down some 3s, too.

He and Holmgren are the best rim-protecting duo around, supported by that aforementioned hydra on the perimeter. This team is going to be a monster defensively. An absolute monster.

Aaron Wiggins and Kenrich Williams are solid enough to round out the wing depth. Don’t forget about Jaylin Williams as well, a luxury of a third big. All three of them hit triples, too. While opponents will feel comfortable leaving some of the Thunder’s shooters open, namely Dort and Wiggins, they go 11 deep without an inefficient one popping up outside of Hartenstein (for now).

All that is stopping OKC is the young guns adapting to the postseason. There were a handful of moments in the second round when it was Gilgeous-Alexander’s time to step up and take over a game in the second half. The results were mixed. Jalen Williams was OK but never anything above that. Ditto for Holmgren.

Maybe this is a year early. Then again, that’s how it felt picking them to finish top-five last season and then they nearly won the West. As the Boston Celtics showed with their five-out style of play, basketball is trending in the direction of versatile rosters like this one becoming the standard. Oklahoma City has been ahead of the game for years and it’s getting rewarded for it.

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