More like the Mid 12: CFP rankings should make Big 12 nervous if ASU can’t win out

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark in July said his conference’s football schedule in November would be branded as the “race for the championship.”

He was correct to expect parity. Nine of 16 teams still have a shot to win the conference heading into the final regular season week.

Yormark massively whiffed in presuming the Big 12’s power in numbers would project to multiple College Football Playoff berths and high individual CFP rankings.

Let’s face it: The league is viewed as the Mid 12.

But the lack of elite teams in the conference has been a boon for Arizona State to flip its program. It sits atop the Big 12 and ranks 16th in the College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday night. The Sun Devils’ path to the Big 12 title game goes almost hand-in-hand with a win against Arizona.

Winning the Big 12 title game after that would push ASU into the 12-team CFP bracket, but that’s where the Big 12 has missed the branding mark.

ASU is currently projected as the last team and No. 12 seed in the bracket, and that’s bad news for the rest of the league. Looking a few steps down the road before the Sun Devils visit the Wildcats in a must-win scenario, here’s what you should know:

Big 12 winner could miss CFP bye to start 12-team playoff

It was assumed each of the Power Four conferences would get one of four first-round byes in the first expanded playoff, but that’s not a certainty.

From ESPN’s Heather Dinich:

The rules of the 12-team CFP guarantees playoff bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions — period. That does not mean it’s a guarantee for the Power 4 conference champions. In theory, all five conference champions could be from the Group of 5. The reality is that the Big 12 champion should be in — it would be a stunning, controversial decision for it to be left out. But the league isn’t doing itself any favors with No. 16 ASU carrying the banner — just a step above No. 17 Tulane. If the Big 12 champion has three losses — and two-loss Tulane runs the table and finishes as a two-loss American Athletic Conference champion — it will at least open the door for a debate as to which conference champion would finish higher.

Dinich points out that Iowa State (18th) and BYU (19th) are still top-20 teams in the CFP rankings, helping the Big 12’s case.

For ASU, the situation isn’t as dire as it would be for anyone else in the conference because it only has two losses. Every other Big 12 contender has three losses or more.

If the Sun Devils win two more games, they’re into the CFP.

“Whether or not (the Sun Devils) get a bye I think is the question,” Fiesta Bowl CEO and executive director Erik Moses told Arizona Sports’ Wolf & Luke on Wednesday.

Should the Big 12 be concerned about not getting a team in the College Football Playoff? What about getting a bye?

Fiesta Bowl executive director Erik Moses thinks "it's potentially troublesome" for the league. pic.twitter.com/Q35R8EC5gP

— Arizona Sports (@AZSports) November 27, 2024

But a chance to earn a bye comes with more than a higher-profile game. If they receive a bye and earn a No. 4 seed, the Sun Devils would be playing down the road at State Farm Stadium for the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve for their playoff game.

As a 12 seed as currently projected, they would start off in a true road game.

Yormark told Yahoo Sports he wasn’t worried about the Big 12 earning a bye, but that was before the latest rankings came out.

“Based on where we sit today, I see no rationale for the Big 12’s champion not getting a first-round bye,” Yormark told Yahoo Sports. “The winner of our championship should receive a bye. I have a lot of trust in the selection committee and I’m sure they’ll see it that way. Just look at the data. The data doesn’t lie.

“From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, all four of our schools at the top of the standings are ranked ahead of Boise State.”

Problem is, the CFP committee isn’t prioritizing strength of schedule. As ESPN’s David Hale writes, it’s more concerned about the quality of losses.

Arizona State lost to Cincinnati (5-6) and Texas Tech (7-4).

There’s a doomsday scenario for the rest of the Big 12

Is there a possibility no Big 12 team gets into the bracket at all?

There sure is if you consider that there are nine teams still in the running to make and then win the conference title.

Should ASU win out to remain a two-loss team, it should be exempt from a doomsday scenario where no Big 12 team gets into the bracket. However, the three teams behind the Sun Devils (Colorado, Iowa State and BYU) could have reason to worry.

“It’s potentially troublesome,” Moses said. “You’ve got (the Mountain West’s Boise State) sitting at 11 and ASU at 16 with Tulane right behind them at 17 representing the American Athletic Conference. It’s troublesome. I think ASU needs to win out and be very convincing in their win in the Big 12 Championship in order to ensure that the Big 12 gets to where it’s supposed to be.

“I don’t want to take anything away from Boise, I don’t want to take anything from Tulane. But the conference bias seems to be rearing its ugly head here in these rankings. And it’s a little troublesome.”

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