The stakes surrounding Cardinals-Seahawks couldn’t be higher

Detrimental. That’s a light way to describe what a loss to the Seattle Seahawks would do to the Arizona Cardinals’ divisional title hopes this week.

The term “must-win game” tends to get overused a lot, but for Arizona against the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks this week, the season comes down to this.

The Upshot’s 2024 NFL playoff simulator in the New York Times gives Arizona a 34% chance at winning the division ahead of Week 14’s tilt.

That number plummets to 8% with a loss this week. Even in the best-case scenario that the Cardinals go 4-0 the rest of the way, their odds still sit at 36% if they don’t get it done at home.

On paper, a loss to the Seahawks puts Arizona a full two games back in the NFC West with four weeks to play.

And Seattle owns a head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0) over Arizona.

An Arizona loss would also put the Cardinals in a hole divisional record-wise at 2-2. Both the Seahawks (3-2 with a win) and Rams (2-1) would have the advantage there, too.

The wiggle room is just about gone after two losses in two weeks.

But with a win, the Cardinals would take 57% odds to win the NFC West, per Upshot’s simulations.

Arizona still has work to do. It remains firmly in the driver’s seat with three very winnable games — yes, the San Francisco 49ers are included here — and one last big division-implicating tilt against the Rams in Week 17.

Cardinals would still have a sliver of hope in NFC West if they fall to Seahawks

If Arizona does end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard on Sunday, its fate lies in the hands of Seattle’s opponents the rest of the way.

But given how the Seahawks’ schedule shakes out, hope isn’t completely lost.

After Arizona, Seattle has back-to-back home games against a pair of NFC North problems in the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and Green Bay Packers (9-3).

They then visit the Chicago Bears (4-8) before a season finale against the Los Angeles Rams (6-6).

That final four-game stretch plus the Arizona game makes for the ninth toughest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL (.583) compared to Arizona’s standing at No. 27 (.393), per Tankathon.

It’s a big reason why FTN Fantasy still has the Cardinals (55.5%) holding better odds of winning the division than the Seahawks (20.5%).

It’s not ideal to have to rely on the help of other teams in December. But for the Cardinals, it’s a better situation than what’s going on in some of the other divisions around the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills (10-2) already clinched the AFC East 13 weeks in. It feels like it’s only a matter of time before the already postseason-bound Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) and Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) do the same in the AFC West and NFC East, respectively.

Of course, projections and SOS are all for naught if Arizona can’t deliver on its end, especially with three last-place teams in New England, Carolina and San Francisco upcoming.

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