ESPN’s Schoenfield says lack of strikeouts from starters could doom Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks are still on the outside looking in the postseason, and if they do get in, one flaw sticks out above the rest.

D-backs starting pitching has been just about league-average this season, ranking 16th in ERA. However, other metrics suggest that they’re pretty lucky to be that high.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield says that both the Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, who are vying for the final National League Wild Card spot, are currently facing the same issue: their starting pitchers don’t strike anybody out.

Since Aug. 1, the Diamondbacks starters rank 21st in the league in strikeout percentage, and over the entire season, they rank 29th in strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) at 6.59. The only team below them in that metric is the lowly Colorado Rockies.

The team also ranks 28th in expected ERA, while only being 10th in batting average on balls in play (BABIP). This suggests their pitching has been extremely lucky his season.

Eduardo Rodriguez has been the Diamondbacks’ ace this season, posting an impressive 2.62 ERA, but he pitches to contact and doesn’t offer a high strikeout rate at 6.81 K/9.

Eduardo Rodriguez has had an amazing season despite a below-average K rate, but the batted ball metrics suggest he has been a little bit lucky and has relied on a high strand rate. Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt had some big moments in Arizona’s 2023 World Series run, but they rank 124th and 120th, respectively, on that list of 132 pitchers in strikeout rate.

Rodriguez has done a lot of heavy lifting for the Diamondbacks starters in the ERA department, with Kelly (5.00) and Zac Gallen (6.22 and getting demoted to the bullpen) having disappointing seasons.

Pfaadt has been better as of late after a slow start, and getting Michael Soroka and Corbin Burnes off of the injured list will undoubtedly give them a boost if they have any hope of catching the Padres.

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