ESPN: Arizona Diamondbacks’ playoff odds plummet ahead of All-Star break
The Diamondbacks' playoff odds dropped to 14.5% after a tough midseason stretch, per ESPN, making their postseason push an uphill battle.
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The midseason stretch has not been kind to the Arizona Diamondbacks, and a recent look at their postseason projections reveals just how much ground the Diamondbacks have lost.
According to an ESPN evaluation analyzing the first-half performance and updated playoff odds for all 30 Major League Baseball teams, the Diamondbacks’ path to October has grown increasingly steep as the first half of the season came to a close.
ESPN projects the Diamondbacks to win 80.3 games, which puts their playoff probability at just 14.5%. In ESPN’s identical exercise from 28 days ago, the Diamondbacks’ playoff odds sat at 43.8%.
The Diamondbacks enter Wednesday with a 45-46 record following a 4-1 loss to the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night, the same record they had through 91 games in each of the past two seasons, though the defeat dropped the D-backs to a dead heat with the Padres for second place in the National League West.
Both clubs sit a distant 14 games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers (60-33), and with the division title practically out of reach, Arizona’s only realistic route to the postseason is through the wild card.
However, that hill is getting harder to climb. The Diamondbacks currently sit 4.5 games behind the Miami Marlins for the third and final NL wild-card spot, with the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Washington Nationals all sandwiched in between.
The sliding playoff odds reflect a mediocre stretch of baseball for Torey Lovullo’s squad. Arizona has struggled to find consistency and remain above .500, posting a 14-19 record since the start of June.
The upcoming schedule offers little relief for the D-backs as they look to turn things around before and immediately after the upcoming All-Star break. Arizona finishes out its series against the Padres on Thursday before heading to Los Angeles for a daunting three-game weekend set against the juggernaut Dodgers.
Opportunities loom large for Diamondbacks post All-Star break
Following the break, the road back to .500 and into the playoff picture goes directly through the very teams they are chasing. The D-backs will host the Cardinals for three games (and then welcome the Athletics to Phoenix) before embarking on a vital road trip, which begins with stops at the Nationals and Pirates.
If the Diamondbacks hope to replicate their magical 2023 postseason run, they will need to find another gear quickly. Otherwise, a promising 2026 campaign risks slipping away before August even arrives, and they could be forced to become sellers at the trade deadline again.
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Comments
7 Comments
If TL keeps running out 3-4 players per game who are hitting under .200 ESPN will be correct.
Why is this a surprise to the individuals at Arizona Sports? I have written a few comments in great details that it will take a miracle for the Dbacks to garner a wild card playoff spot.
Without going into the details, IF the Dbacks are 48-48 at the All-Stars break, the Dbacks will need to win ~63% of their remaining 66 games to have ensure a near guarantee of being a wild card team. The problem is that no team managed by TL during his 10 seasons have won 63% of their games in a period of 66 games.
IF the Dbacks are 46-50 at the All-Stars break, the Dbacks will need to win 65.15% of the remaining 66 games to ensure a near guarantee to be a wild card playoff team.
Paven shouldnt be on the team, Kepler shouldnt be on the team, Gallen shouldnt be on the team, Tawa shouldnt be on the team. Lourdes shouldnt be playing over young guys this teams needs to develope. McCarthy and Blaze (batting .300 each) should have not be traded.
Hazen and Torrey need to go. I have long defended them. But too many awful decisions and performing players to justify keeping either of them. The Front Office/owners invested multiple years now. And this team has flopped.