If the Diamondbacks push for a Wild Card spot, the tiebreakers could be chaotic
In a tightly contested Wild Card race, who makes the playoffs if the Diamondbacks end the season tied with one or more teams?
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The Arizona Diamondbacks entered Monday two games back of the New York Mets for the third and final National League Wild Card spot following an eight-game losing streak for New York.
The Mets’ collapse has opened the door for the D-backs, Giants, Reds and Cardinals to all have a chance at the postseason. The Padres hold the second Wild Card four games ahead of the Mets, but Arizona will have a chance against them during the last series of the year.
The playoff odds remain slim for the D-backs, 5.2% according to FanGraphs. But baseball is a sport of chaos, and the Detroit Tigers made the playoffs last year with only 5% odds on Sep. 7, so it wouldn’t hurt to do some due diligence.
When the playoffs expanded in 2022, extra regular season games to determine ties were eliminated. MLB now has a formula to break ties between two, three and even four teams. This system resulted in the Diamondbacks missing the postseason last year despite finishing tied with the Mets and Braves for the final two spots.
Note: All records listed in this article are prior to play on Monday, Sep. 15.
Scenario: Diamondbacks tie with 1 other team
In the event of a two-team tie, head-to-head records would determine who would make the playoffs (or seeding in the event of a tie for the fifth and sixth seeds).
Currently, the D-backs hold the following records:
vs. Padres: 5-5 (3 games left to play)
vs. Mets: 3-3
vs. Reds: 2-4
vs. Giants: 5-5 (3 games left to play)
vs. Cardinals: 3-3
At this point in time, the only locked tiebreaker for the D-backs is with the Reds, which they lose.
Following the head-to-head records, ties are resolved by first looking at the teams’ intradivision (within their division) records and then their interdivision (within their league but not their division) records. Since Arizona ends the regular season against a division opponent, these records won’t be locked until the end of the year.
With an intradivision record of 23-20, the D-backs would currently win the tiebreaker against the Cardinals (20-20) and Mets (23-23).
Arizona’s tiebreaker with the Giants will be determined by who wins their series this week. The tiebreaker with the Padres will be determined by who wins the series at the end of the year.
Scenario: Diamondbacks tie with 2 other teams
Adding more teams to the mix makes the scenarios much more complicated, especially with every team still having at least one series against another contender remaining this season.
If one team in a three-way tie has a winning record against both other teams, they win the tiebreaker. Otherwise, the cumulative winning percentages for each team against the other two are compared.
The three-team tiebreakers prior to play on Monday are listed below. In the event of a three-way tie for the fifth seed, the sixth seed would be decided by the two-team tiebreakers.
Records against the other two teams in the tiebreaker are listed in parenthesis.
Locked three-team tiebreakers
D-backs (5-7), Mets (5-7) and Reds (8-4): Reds
D-backs (6-6), Mets (8-5) and Cardinals (5-8): Mets
D-backs (7-9), Padres (7-9) and Reds (8-4): Reds
Three-team tiebreakers with head-to-head games to determine winner still to be played
D-backs (8-8), Mets (3-6) and Padres (8-5): Padres
D-backs (8-8), Mets (7-5) and Giants (7-9): Mets
D-backs (10-10), Padres (15-8) and Giants (8-15): Padres
D-backs (8-8), Padres (9-8) and Cardinals (6-7): Padres
D-backs (7-9), Reds (7-5) and Giants (8-8): Reds
D-backs (5-7), Reds (8-8) and Cardinals (9-7): Cardinals
D-backs (8-8), Giants (6-7) and Cardinals (5-4): Cardinals
Scenario: Diamondbacks tie with 3 other teams
It is incredibly unlikely but still mathematically possible that the D-backs and three other teams all end the regular season tied. In that case, the calculation is the same as before, but with another team involved. Currently, there are no four-way ties that would result in the D-backs winning the tiebreaker.
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Comments
1 Comments
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Would ya look at that
Tie breaker articles are being posted now! Lol
Ownership and The FO already said this season was over, yet here we are having gone 21-13 since the sell off..
**Again, I’m not against getting returns on players who aren’t expected to remain.. That’s only logical.. Though I am definitely frustrated in how the powers that be, neglected getting the BullPen the help it so badly needs and needed!
We traded 6 Vets for like 12 Players.. And yet we couldn’t make a move for an average reliever?
There’s no way the Kendrick, Hall and Hazen didn’t notice how the lack of relief arms is crushing our hopes.. For 3 consecutive seasons we’ve been tops in scoring and D.. And our starters have remarkably been giving the BP leads on the regular.. Healthy ones at that!
Hazen- someone has to own this debacle.. And I definitely do not believe it should fall on TL or our core.. The FO failed this club by not getting it the support it’s earned!