Which D-backs starting pitcher is poised for the biggest 2020 season?

A recent ranking of MLB’s starting pitchers might inspire the question: Who is currently the best starting pitcher on the Arizona Diamondbacks?

If you assumed that Madison Bumgarner would be the top-ranked Diamondback, you were wrong. In a ranking from The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, the top D-backs starter was Zac Gallen, which is, at the very least, backed up by their respective ERAs in 2019. Gallen has only 15 MLB starts, though, so sample size ought to be considered there.

The ranking only included the top 175 starting pitchers across Major League Baseball. You can read more about Sarris’ methodology at the link above, but it’s essentially a combination of projections (which are based on past performance), command metrics (measuring a pitcher’s accuracy) and stuff (the qualities of a pitcher’s pitches, like speed, break, etc.).

Keep in mind, also, that since part of this is about projection, this is about the here and now; this is not a measurement of who will have the best career or who already has accomplished the most in their career. For example, Mike Clevinger was ahead of Clayton Kershaw on Sarris’ ranking.

Gallen was ranked No. 33, nestled between Trevor Bauer at No. 32 and Atlanta’s Mike Soroka. He also beat out Hyun-Jin Ryu, who just finished second in the NL Cy Young voting. It helped that Gallen was on the high side for command; his 110.1 metric was better than Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and others.

Bumgarner was the next-highest-rated D-backs starter, at No. 43. Luke Weaver was two spots behind at No. 45, Robbie Ray was No. 51, Merrill Kelly was No. 114 and Mike Leake was No. 116. Younger D-backs starting arms, like Alex Young, Taylor Clarke and Jon Duplantier, were not ranked.

Gallen’s 2.81 ERA in 2019, his rookie season, was impressive. It further validates the Diamondbacks’ decision to trade their No. 1 prospect, Jazz Chisholm, to get Gallen at the deadline. Weaver had a 2.94 ERA in his first season with the D-backs, though an elbow injury and missing most of the season may be hurting his projection for 2020.

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