Roundtable: How far can the Suns go in the 2nd year of their Big 3 era?

The Phoenix Suns couldn’t have done much worse to make us believe the Big 3 can work last season. They fired head coach Frank Vogel and gave Mike Budenholzer an upgraded roster compared to his predecessor.

Maybe the 2023-24 season was a necessary stepping stone to roster churn and end up with more talent around Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. On paper, it’s hard to argue the Suns haven’t gotten better.

But some results beyond 49 wins have to come this year.

What type of results must we see? We asked our Arizona Sports hosts and arizonasports.com editors a two-part question: Where are you setting the bar of expectations for the 2024-25 Suns in the regular season? Separately, how far do you think they’re capable of going in the postseason?

Setting the Suns’ expectations for the regular season and playoffs

Dave Burns, co-host of Burns & Gambo: Maybe we’re just spoiled with the Suns’ recent success. There’s no real rational reason to be disappointed in a season of 49 wins with a top-six seed. But I think they can do better. Do we assume good health? That’s always a tricky proposition with this squad but let’s say they’re mostly healthy for the season. Put me down for 52 wins. Budenholzer’s teams usually put a premium on regular-season success and I think it’s reasonable to think that they’ll be a better basketball team from the jump this year compared to last.

As far as how “capable” they are in the postseason, I think they’re capable of winning it all, but their defense and overall size prevent me from saying they will with any certainty. I do think a trip to the Western Conference Finals is achievable and — (once again) assuming health — reasonable.

Kellan Olson, Empire of the Suns podcast and Arizona Sports at Night co-host: The way to phrase it is that in the regular season, the Suns must avoid any dramatics in the last week. They haven’t been able to do that the last two seasons, and getting above 50 wins will achieve a secure top-six position. Budenholzer is the man for the job. He has had a 50-win pace in six of his 10 seasons and has reached 60 twice.

Outside of significant injuries to the Big 3, the Suns have the roster to get that done. The offense slightly improving from last year would threaten a top-five placement, and the safe bet is they grow more than that. Vogel’s lone accomplishment last year was proving you could build a slightly competent defense with this roster, and Budenholzer has quietly had great defensive teams alongside his much-more-discussed offensive prowess.

The unknown is how much winning and looking like they enjoy basketball again will boost the Suns closer to their ceiling ahead of the postseason, because massive roadblocks await there. All the top teams in the West have the type of size that should give Phoenix problems. They also have coaches with great track records in the playoffs, where Budenholzer’s long-tenured history of failure with adjustments could put the Suns at another disadvantage.

Point being, those issues will be there no matter what, so it is imperative that the Suns make big-time strides and completely establish an identity by March. If they do, they can win the whole thing. OKC is still quite young and will earn trust once it delivers in the playoffs. Minnesota has to figure out the Julius Randle fit — odds are that takes more than just a few months. Denver’s got non-negotiables attached to the core three players around Nikola Jokic now that its depth has crumbled. Dallas might be the safest bet of the four, and then you remember the ultra-volatile ingredients of Kyrie Irving and Jason Kidd remain.

John Gambadoro, co-host of Burns & Gambo: At the very least, making the Western Conference Finals this year means the Suns will not see a repeat of last year when they bowed out early in the playoffs. This team is too talented, and now with a true point guard, we should see fewer fourth-quarter collapses and a team that gets back to winning the crunch time minutes. I can see an NBA Finals appearance for this squad.

Luke Lapinski, co-host of Wolf & Luke: The bar has to be set at them at least going farther than they did last season. Technically I guess you could say that just means winning one playoff game since they got swept in April, but this team pushed all its chips to the middle of the table to try to win a title, so I’m going to say it at least has to make it past the first round.

As far as what the ceiling is, I still think any team with Booker and Durant is capable of winning the conference, especially since they’ve made significant attempts to improve this offseason: hiring Budenholzer, adding point guards who don’t turn the ball over and drafting a potential defensive stopper in Ryan Dunn.

Bringing back the main core to preserve that continuity that the front office emphasized is important, too. I’m not saying they’re going to win the whole thing, but that’s still the goal and I do believe the ceiling is higher now than it was six months ago. The question is whether or not that’s enough to actually take the Suns deep in a loaded Western Conference.

Vince Marotta, co-host of Bickley & Marotta: I’m admittedly optimistic about the Suns’ prospects at this time of the year (at least I have been since 2020), but this feels different. After a flat 2023-24 season, the Suns moved on from Vogel and brought in a rested Budenholzer to take the reins. I love what I saw from the team over the five-game preseason in buying into Bud’s philosophy of modernizing the offense with more three-point shots. It was talked about last year, but any attention paid to that issue was very temporary.

With increased connectivity between the staff and the players, and the addition of roster upgrades (Tyus Jones, Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee), I believe this team has a chance to win the whole thing.

Mitch Vareldzis, co-host of Arizona Sports at Night: They won 49 games last year so let’s put the bar at 50 wins. I’m not asking for much in that regard, but I am also trying to be cognizant of a Western Conference that will see some teams regress and some teams improve greatly. I can only project two teams to be true basement dwellers this season (Portland and Utah) while the other 13 teams I am waiting to see what happens, Suns included.

The Suns have the benefit of a coach better suited for this roster, the support of an owner flexing his wallet while others are slashing costs and a chance to get off on the right foot by fielding a fully healthy roster from day one rather than in December.

So if they get to 50+ wins and do not embarrass themselves in an eventual postseason run, then I will consider it a success. I do, however, understand the many of you who say anything less than a Finals victory is a failure of a season.

I think this team is good enough to make the Western Conference Finals, but I think it will be a tough challenge against teams like Oklahoma City, Minnesota and Dallas.

Kevin Zimmerman, Empire of the Sunspodcast co-host and arizonasports.com lead editor: Phoenix’s 49 wins in a disjointed way shouldn’t be overlooked. The Western Conference remains tough from a parity sense, but it appears more open and without dominant top teams with the Nuggets and T-Wolves diluting the talent of their rosters due to cap issues.

The Suns need to chase a 52-win mark, which is a pretty dang reasonable goal but also the mark of a very good team. From there, we cannot treat this team anything less than what Mat Ishbia openly talks about. They should be among the top four teams in the conference, if not the NBA. Anything short of a Western Conference Finals appearance is going to place responsibility for failure solely on the Suns’ best players.

Alex Weiner, arizonasports.com editor: The bar for this season’s Suns team should be 52 wins and a top-four seed in the Western Conference. Through all the fourth-quarter frustration and injuries last year, they still won 49 games. Budenholzer’s Bucks were a top-three scoring team in four of his five seasons in charge. The Suns should have a deeper offensive arsenal with Tyus Jones joining the lineup alongside Booker, Durant and Beal, while sharpshooter Grayson Allen moves to a key bench role.

The West is really deep this year, but the Suns should be capable of making a Finals run with the combination of their scoring, depth and a head coach with a great reputation for offense.

Related

Dillon Brooks to sign extension with Suns, becoming long-term pieceNFL OL Andrus Peat, brother of Koa, announces retirementSuns reveal 2026 preseason scheduleHas LeBron James set himself up to pass Michael Jordan with move to 76ers? Has he already?Suns’ new starting lineup will run into immediate problemsDillon Brooks credits viral meme to oddly timed LeBron James fan interaction