Western Conference Power Rankings, Part 3: How many real contenders?

Welcome back to another NBA season! In about six weeks!

In order to recap the offseason and gauge where the Phoenix Suns land in the Western Conference, it’s time for the honored tradition of content creation: power rankings!

The series will be divided into three parts, covering five teams each, and splits the conference into five different tiers.

To wrap things up, we will extend off the Lakers’ inclusion in Tier 2 to cover the other so-called “contenders” before going over the only two true ones in a conference that suddenly might be inferior to its eastern counterpart.

Tier 2 (continued): Fake contenders

5. Denver Nuggets

This is the second time in four years the Nuggets have made their team drastically worse for tax and/or apron reasons. At what point does that start to weigh on the psyche of the team and its superstar?

Trading Peyton Watson was unforgivable for many reasons. He’s their best draft pick of the decade. He’s their best on-ball defender. He’s their most athletic player. He’s shown serious upside as a scorer, and that was in his first year getting to have the ball a fair bit at only 23 years old.

All of a sudden, even speaking as someone who is a DeMar DeRozan apologist, Denver’s fifth-best player is coming-off-an-incredibly-alarming-regression-year Christian Braun, followed by DeRozan, good two-way find Spencer Jones and then probably Marvin Bagley?

Denver should not have so much of the bench’s effectiveness riding on Alpha Diallo, a EuroLeague signing.

Diallo was born and raised in the states and graduated from Providence in 2020 before immediately heading overseas, recently starring in the French league, where he primarily stood out as a perimeter defender. We see this every now and then, a great player in Europe taking a big pay cut to get either another or first crack in the league. It rarely works out if the player wasn’t drafted. For diehard Suns fans, think Sonny Weems over 10 years ago. Lonnie Walker IV, a long-time favorite of mine, is a variation of another stab Denver is taking with this. He has been overseas the last three years and is on a non-guaranteed deal.

Even if Braun gets back on track, we know Aaron Gordon (out for 77 games the last two years) and Cam Johnson (out for 53 games the last two years) will miss time. Having Watson plug in those gaps was invaluable. It’s asking a ton out of DeRozan to do that, considering his playstyle is much more methodical. He needs to play that way given how he’s now in the swan song portion of his career.

The Nuggets acquired an unprotected Cleveland 2031 first-rounder in the Watson deal, an asset the Nuggets could and should use to get one more piece. The issue is that as of writing, they are still over the second apron, so the presumption has been Denver will dump Zeke Nnaji to duck under. Nnaji, however, only makes $7.5 million, so achieving both goals in the same deal would be really difficult. The harsh reality is Denver would be best served doing that with either Gordon ($32 million) or Johnson ($23 million) in a 2-for-1 using the pick as the sweetener.

Jamal Murray maintaining his form from the ever-rare career season in Year 10 is the ultimate swing here. If he dips back down out of All-NBA range, now we would need to see Jokic’s best season and great injury luck for the Nuggets to hold their status in the reliable and concrete threats for 45-plus wins tier we have created here.

Out of respect, especially to Jokic, as well as Murray and all the time the two have had together, putting Denver any lower than fifth would be too reactionary. The Nuggets have won at least 46 games for nine straight seasons. Still, their floor now suddenly has some depth to it. It would not be shocking to see them in the play-in.

4. Houston Rockets

Houston came off a stinky first-round loss that seemed to add up to either the coach getting fired or a major shakeup within the roster.

Neither happened!

As someone who does not want to come across as one of the many trying to dunk on Kevin Durant at any opportunity, I can’t help but point out that many elements of what the Rockets went through last season reeked of his time in Phoenix. His inconsistent role within the offense, soulless team outings where it looks like no one on the floor cares, a lack of organization late in games and more.

I was high on the fit, believing that the Rockets’ established culture would allow Durant to fit in instead of having to set the example. That has not been the case.

Most damaging of all, neither Alperen Sengun or Amen Thompson took a big jump. They stagnated, lingering around borderline All-Star status, and Thompson regressed after massive hype toward the end of the 2024-25 season had him looking like a future top-20 guy last season. Reed Sheppard showed his pros and cons through a coach who factored in the cons, Tari Eason quietly had just an OK season and Jabari Smith Jr. kind of just is what he is now, a perfectly serviceable starting forward that you probably don’t want on the floor to close games.

The “addition” here is a healthy Fred VanVleet, which Houston clearly believes is a cure-all to its woes. Ditto for Steven Adams. Once he was out for the year, the Rockets’ reliability on offensive rebounding to avoid being mediocre on offense was undeniable.

Marcus Smart was a nice signing as an off-ball irritant but that was the only real new arrival to the rotation.

This squad is going nowhere unless one of its young players steps up and they relocate their cohesion before Durant got there. There is also a pretty safe floor in the top-6.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

Honestly, I’ve got the heebie-jeebies for all of these teams. But the difference with Minnesota is a true ceiling, so let’s ride with them!

This experiment all starts and ends with LaMelo Ball’s health. He played 105 games in three years before Charlotte was extremely delicate with him last season, putting him on 28 minutes a game and playing him north of 35 just five times all year.

That’s actually fine in his new destination. Ayo Dosunmu is the best third guard in basketball. He does everything well, contributing inside the gaps better than most while also being able to elevate his game when given the opportunity. Dosunmu himself would push back on how well he did that last season through a midseason adjustment on a team that at times lacked cohesion, but a full year in Minnesota with a new point guard is going to set Dosunmu up for a career year. He will benefit massively from Ball, whether that’s on the floor with him as the T-Wolves’ premier transition threat and off-ball scorer/shooter or without Ball when Dosnumu will get more playing time.

Anthony Edwards continues to round out every part of his offensive game.

Ant wouldn’t have been able to function as well with LaMelo even two years ago, and that goes for both guys. Now, they will thrive. Watch how Ball sets up and plays for his teammates, as well as the on/off court numbers, where you’ll see he’s up there with the Tyrese Haliburtons of the world as a vintage point guard that operates with a primary responsibility of making his teammates better. Don’t get too lost in the stupid jumpers, where, by the way, Ball and Edwards form the best one-two tandem of pull-up 3-point shooters. They will be jacking them up, and with good reason. It’s going to put a ton of strain on the extra steps the defense has to cover.

The Ball and Julius Randle trades were made with an obvious belief in Jaden McDaniels finally taking a permanent step forward as a legitimately reliable offensive option. We see flutters of it, and they do keep getting stronger by the year. A lot of this is on him permanently being who he was against Denver in the playoffs (18-7-3 averages). That’s because the Timberwolves can’t rely on a fairly unproven bench, or Jonathan Kuminga, a good value swing at under $7 million a year that still hasn’t proven he can be a net positive on a winner in two pretty good situations.

The wing group beyond that is full of even more question marks. While I will continue to be a Terrence Shannon Jr. truther, an explosive talent that has to be allowed to work through the type of mistakes Chris Finch would sit him for, there’s not much stock to put in him until that marriage is healthy. Second-round pick Isaiah Evans really shoots it and brings a bit of size on the perimeter. Jaylen Clark can really guard and gets flashes to show it like Shannon. Cody Williams went from disastrous top-10 flop as a rookie to showing brief signs of life in Year 2, giving Finch his fourth young unproven wing, an archetype he rarely backs with consistent minutes.

It should be said that Rudy Gobert just turned 34 years old, and this is the age range when 7-footers usually hit a severe decline. How ready second-year big Joan Beringer is, both to replace Naz Reid and then potentially cushion the fall of Gobert, becomes important. Is new signing Trey Lyles still a thing? That would help if he was.

Injured guard Donte DiVincenzo will eventually fill the gaps that will feel present through the feeling-out phase of Ball and Edwards together, a gap in the rotation that will allow Finch to try out Shannon and others to figure out who rounds out the rest of this team until March and April. Reid and Randle played heavy minutes at times so Finch could avoid playing his younger wings, but now Finch won’t really have a choice. He needs to strike gold on one of those four.

There is a lot to doubt, from Ball’s health to the consistency of the wings to Gobert’s age and the limited depth behind him. But the biggest benefit the T-Wolves have is the allure of the unknown. We know what the Lakers, Nuggets and Rockets will look like. While we can have our guesses with Minnesota, we for the most part have no idea how it’ll go. The gap between the floor and ceiling is bigger than anyone in this conference, instantly making them the most fascinating team to watch in the West this year.

Tier 1: Real contenders

2. San Antonio Spurs

Should we be worried about these guys? Maybe just a little bit?

The discourse regarding how many laps Mike Brown ran around Mitch Johnson in the Finals wasn’t loud enough. On top of that, the primary way we associate the Spurs with that series was the late-game collapses. That’s on Johnson!

I still think he’s a fine head coach, but he’s going to need to be more to figure out how to juggle this backcourt. Dylan Harper was blunt after the Finals in saying the bench role isn’t really one he’s in favor of, and that was as a rookie. Now in Year 2 with oodles of hype as the next great young guard in the league, is he still cool with that? I had to restructure my mortgage after the hit my De’Aaron Fox stock took. It’s not even like he’s bad. He’s just not Harper or Stephon Castle. Does Fox sign off on becoming a reserve? If he does, this whole thing makes a whole lot more sense.

This team is still so damn good, even if those hurdles come. Castle was tremendous all year, turning into my favorite non-star to watch on league pass. And he’s about to become one. Harper might beat him to it. Not many rookies could have reached the heights he did.

It was a huge postseason for Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie. They both delivered in droves and should be looked at as the standard for a tertiary pair of wings. I loved the Tobias Harris signing. Being overpaid had him catch flack his whole career. He just shouldn’t be one of your first three options offensively. Outside of that, he’s a well-rounded offensive player who competes on defense and is an all-time vibes guy in the locker room who brings true leadership. He and Harrison Barnes doing that stuff and whatever gap-filling is necessary on the floor pending how ready Carter Bryant is in Year 2 (I’m excited!) is a luxury no other team has.

Victor Wembanyama is going to be better. Pending health, last season should be the last out of the next few when he is not the Most Valuable Player. That image of him posing in front of the Spurs bench in Oklahoma City was our true “next face of the league” transition. It is now him.

If his incredibly unique body leads to shortcomings, the Spurs planned for that by wisely doubling down on bigs in the draft. Tarris Reed is a brick (expletive)house that mauls the interior while supposedly refining a 3-point shot. Jayden Quaintance would have been a top-10 pick with clean medicals and if he was coming off the year he had at Arizona State instead of a messy stint at Kentucky. Quaintance has All-Defense upside and can really move at his size on offense. Luke Kornet’s existence means the Spurs can take it slow with both.

If not for those two areas of concern we started with, I’d have this group as the top dogs. The Spurs, after proving they’ve got OKC’s number, were the better team for large stretches of the Finals. They lost because they couldn’t finish, so they ultimately were not better. Earning those stripes with their three most important players being under 23 years old with major growth still possible is a tremendous amount of momentum. I can’t wait to see if I’m right or wrong on this.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

When looking at the tax-related departures of Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, the question with OKC becomes if it will be worse because of it.

That should be the other way around, though. This team is probably better.

Dort’s exit opens up more versatility for Mark Daigneault to play with when it comes to his lineups. He ran into the awkward level of loyalty that comes with a player like Dort, a culture driver through and through that obviously wasn’t one of their five best or most reliable players anymore, but Dort had to keep getting key minutes.

Now, Daigneault can cruise through other options like Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Jared McCain or Cason Wallace. A full season of Wallace in a bigger role, McCain in town and Mitchell settling in post-breakout will have their backcourt more diverse offensively without much drop off defensively. Rookie Bennett Stirtz brings even more playmaking juice, and crucially, another dribble-pull-up threat on 3s as an unathletic lead guard OKC will be able to cover for on the other end.

It should all be fine as long Jalen Williams is. Lineup constructions quickly fall apart if he cannot be relied upon for his shooting and on-ball defense, an ironic twist considering he is a marquee secondary ball-handler that the Thunder can actually cover for in that regard. Williams sat for only 24 total games in his first three seasons before sitting for 59 last year, not including 10 more in the postseason. Before that, he was undergoing another jump into a borderline top-10 overall player.

If Williams is healthy and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets back to business, all OKC needs to remain the overall title favorites is one small development jump in the frontcourt.

Thomas Sorber was my guy for the Suns at No. 10 in the 2025 NBA Draft, and it’ll be interesting to see if he’s the first big off the bench after missing all of last year due to knee surgery. His combination of skill, toughness and length is a square peg in the square hole of the Thunder’s identity, but he was right on the edge of his physical profile not being enough to thrive in the NBA, so he can’t afford to lose much pop after his injury. The reliable piece will probably be Jaylin Williams, who had a really nice fourth season and stepped up big in a few playoff moments against San Antonio while Chet Holmgren disintegrated over the course of two weeks.

Rookie Aday Mara is the wild card, a fluid athlete for a 7-foot-3 dude armed with elite passing vision and rim protection potential. I’ll always tell you guys to “keep an eye on his minutes throughout the season” for a few borderline rotation guys early in the year, and Mara might be my No. 1. If OKC thinks he’s ready and is giving him run, we are back to our regularly scheduled domination.

How Holmgren recovers from an absolute, as the kids say, mogging, is the top storyline.

After his rivalry with Wembanyama resulted in him completely disappearing in the Western Conference Finals and not even performing as a top-10 overall player in the series, Holmgren has to return to All-NBA form for this team to remain a juggernaut. He doesn’t necessarily have to get better, even though he clearly can be and the Thunder would like to see that, but DPOY-caliber performances with trustworthy secondary scoring still has to be consistent. And look, he should be. But sports are weird, layered in mental gymnastics we aren’t even aware of most of the time, so let’s see if Holmgren can land that standing back-tuck. It could decide if the Thunder’s window is still a full cool breeze or is losing gusto more quickly than we realize.

It gets talked about enough but I’ll close by hammering it down once more that SGA is pacing to be the best guard of his generation and one of the 10 best ever. There have been nine players in NBA history that have averaged at least 30 points per game while posting a true shooting percentage of 62% or better, per Stathead. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of them, one of two that has done it more than twice and the four times he has done it covers the last four consecutive seasons. Hall of Famer Adrian Dantley also did that, and SGA is about to best him by doing it a fifth time.

He nearly led the Thunder past those Spurs while essentially without his two co-stars. Do not get lost on that inside of whatever silly debates exist about him, or if someone foolishly attributes him blame for OKC coming up short. This is still his show.