Suns on the verge of locking in play-in seeding
The Phoenix Suns have a very outside chance to land a playoff spot but likely will land in the NBA Play-In Tournament.
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The Phoenix Suns have lost eight of their last 11 games. The tumble — even as Dillon Brooks and Mark Williams each returned from injury — has about settled their postseason fate.
In the seventh seed at present, Phoenix finds itself 4.5 games behind the Minnesota Timberwolves, with only 11 combined games left between the two teams.
The magic number is two: Two combined Suns losses or T-Wolves wins means Phoenix will not avoid the NBA Play-In Tournament by leaping Minnesota to win the No. 6 seed. The probabilities Phoenix can overtake Minnesota: 0.2%, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
The Suns are 2.5 games ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers and 3.0 up on the Los Angeles Clippers.
All in all, the Suns have a probability of greater than 94% that they will stick in the top play-in seed at No. 7, giving them hosting duties for the opening day of the tournament.
There is a 5% chance the Suns fall to the No. 8 seed with the Clippers or Blazers catching them: Los Angeles has 4.5% odds and Portland just 0.7%. There is a 0.2% chance both teams catch Phoenix and relegate them to the No. 9 seed, which would require the Suns to win two play-in tournament games to reach a playoff series.
If the Suns enter the play-in tournament as the No. 7 seed as projected at the end of the regular season, they could remain in the seventh seed for the playoffs with a win in the 7-8 play-in game. With a loss in that opening play-in game, Phoenix could enter the playoffs as the eighth seed by winning a second play-in game against the winner of the 9-10 seed game.
NBA standings: The Suns and the play-in picture
6. Minnesota Timberwolves (46-30) — 14.5 games behind 1st
7. Phoenix Suns (42-35) — 19.0 games behind 1st
8. Portland Trail Blazers (40-38) — 21.5 games behind 1st
9. Los Angeles Clippers (39-38) — 22.0 games behind 1st
10. Golden State Warriors (36-41) — 25.0 games behind 1st
Phoenix Suns remaining schedule
at Chicago (29-47) – Sunday, April 5
vs. Houston (47-29) – Tuesday, April 7
vs. Dallas (24-52) – Wednesday, April 8
at Los Angeles Lakers (50-27) – Friday, April 10
at Oklahoma City (61-16) – Sunday, April 12
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Comments
8 Comments
The Blazers currently have the 8th seed over the Clippers. But yes, having home court advantage against your opponent kinda helps the home team.
“You're only as good as your recent games”
According to who? Certainly not Bill Parcells, who famously said: "You are what your record says you are.”
The standings don’t reset every 11 games, and bad stretches don’t define teams. This team is 8-9 over the last month, and only two of those losses were against bad teams (the Bulls and Bucks).
The 2023-24 Timberwolves won 56 games and were the 3rd seed in the West. They went 3-3 in their last 6 games, and two of those losses came against the Suns.
The Suns ended that season on a 3-game winning streak (7-3 in their last 10) and then got swept by those same Timberwolves in the first round of the Playoffs.
Momentum is nice, but it’s not definitive.
Why does this matter? Breathing room to get beat at home by the Clippers?