Big 12 power rankings: Can anyone catch Texas Tech, BYU to prevent title rematch?

The Big 12 seems to produce annual unpredictability, but the conference may be on a collision course for a rematch of last year’s title game between Texas Tech and BYU.

Ranked at Nos. 12 and 14 in the AP Poll, respectively, Texas Tech has become the most resource-rich program in the conference, while BYU is a masterclass in continuity after a second-straight season where the program had at least 11 wins.

They’re the conference’s only teams in the top 20 of the preseason poll, while No. 23 Houston is its only other ranked team. Three others (Arizona, TCU and Oklahoma State) received votes.

The Big 12 didn’t receive any favors when it comes to its international perception with TCU’s lackluster showing in Dublin, Ireland during a 15-10 loss to North Carolina in Week 0.

The first full week of action has only a few chances to shift that.

Baylor heading into SEC country to face Auburn is the conference’s highest-profile game of the week, with the biggest test among likely title contenders coming when Houston hosts Oregon State.

Most others will focus on taking care of business against lesser competition while getting their new-look groups to click into place.

Big 12 power rankings entering Week 1 of college football

Tier 1: Favorites

1. Texas Tech

Week 1: vs. Abilene Christian at 4 p.m. (all times MST) Saturday (FS1)

We all know the story at quarterback at this point: the Red Raiders are going with a backup plan in Will Hammond following the Brendan Sorsby saga. They’ve also recently added veteran quarterback Thomas Castellanos to provide extra competition.

But it’s important to remember that the two best games Hammond had in relief of Behren Morton last season were the two toughest games he played in: road matchups at Arizona State and Utah. He’s capable of showing up in big moments.

Even despite losing some high-profile NFL draft picks like EDGE David Bailey, Texas Tech has the 12th-most returning production in the nation and the most in the Big 12, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. It also leads the Big 12 with 27 NFL prospects on the Shriners Children’s East-West Bowl 1000 preseason list that includes input from scouts.

2. BYU

Week 1: vs. Utah Tech at 5 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)

Most people won’t give the Cougars as long a look for the top spot as they deserve, as their quarterback stability with sophomore Bear Bachmeier coming off a surprise freshman season as a starter goes a long way. He has 2025 Big 12 leading rusher L.J. Martin back with him, along with a lot of the same outstanding offensive line.

The Cougars are tied for the third-most NFL prospects among Big 12 teams (11, seven on the defensive side) on the East-West Bowl 1000.

Tier 2: Likely contenders

3. Houston

Week 1: vs. Oregon State at 9 a.m. Saturday (ESPN)

Quarterback stability is big with our next two teams as well, as Houston’s Conner Weigman had the second-best passer rating (147.1) last season among the conference’s returning quarterbacks.

Two of his top weapons, running back Dean Connors and 2025 Big 12 receptions leader tight end Tanner Koziol, moved onto the NFL, so it will take a quick reload job to keep up the success after head coach Willie Fritz took the Cougars from four to 10 wins in Year 2.

4. Arizona

Week 1: vs. Northern Arizona at 6:30 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)

Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita was one tenth of a point higher than Weigman in passer rating for the conference’s top spot among those who returned this season. Wide receiver Tre Spivey, who led the team with seven touchdown receptions in 2025, will likely be his top option.

The Wildcats’ situation is similar to Houston’s in that a second-year head coach saw a big jump in wins after four wins in their debut. Like Houston having to replace offensive weapons who are now in the NFL, Arizona must weather the departures of four NFL draft picks in the secondary.

Tier 3: If things break right…

5. Arizona State

Week 1: vs. Morgan State at 7 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+, 98.7 and the Arizona Sports app)

ASU will go as starting quarterback Cutter Boley goes this season. You could say that about most teams and their signal-callers, but the talent around Boley suggests another effective quarterback whispering job by head coach Kenny Dillingham and offensive Marcus Arroyo could be enough to propel the team into conference title contention.

The schedule is brutally tough, so the season could quickly unravel if he and the rest of the offense can’t click quickly enough.

6. Oklahoma State

Week 1: at Tulsa at 12:45 p.m. Saturday (ESPNU)

You could easily argue this is too low for the Cowboys, who moved on from Mike Gundy after 21 seasons at the helm.

They added in a big way, as former North Texas coach Eric Morris brought quarterback Drew Mestemaker (2025 FBS passing yards leader), running back Caleb Hawkins (2025 FBS rushing and scrimmage touchdowns leader) and wide receiver Wyatt Young (2025 American Conference receiving yards and touchdowns leader).

It was a historic year for North Texas that saw the Mean Green finish in the top 20 of the AP Poll for the first time since 1959. Morris brought more transfers than just from the North Texas squad, too, for the second-best transfer class in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech. Oklahoma State could become a scary opponent in a hurry.

7. Utah

Week 1: vs. Idaho at 6 p.m. Thursday (ESPNU)

The Utes are placing a bet on continuity following Kyle Whittingham’s departure to Michigan, but there may not be as much continuity as it would seem on the surface.

Quarterback and Valley product Devon Dampier stuck around, but his offensive coordinator that previously joined him on the New Mexico-to-Utah jump did not. Then-defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley was promoted to the top job, but some of the top defensive pieces, like EDGE John Henry Daley, also left for Michigan. The Utes also have to replace multiple offensive linemen who are now in the NFL.

Tier 4: Outside looking in

8. UCF

Week 1: vs. Bethune-Cookman at 4 p.m. Thursday (ESPN+)

Head coach Scott Frost led the Knights to a 13-0 record in 2017, but he hasn’t won more than five games in a season since then. Now entering the second season of his second stint in Orlando, he’s hoping transfer quarterback Alonza Barnett III can make a smooth jump up to the Power Four after leading James Madison to the College Football Playoff last year.

9. Kansas State

Week 1: vs. Nicholls at 4 p.m. Saturday (ESPN+)

Kansas State and head coach Chris Klieman parted ways after a six-win season, their first with fewer than eight wins since 2020. They pivoted to former Wildcats quarterback Collin Klein, who was the Texas A&M offensive coordinator the last two years after previously serving on staff at his alma mater (2014-15, 2017-23).

Klein may be able to unlock quarterback Avery Johnson, one of the higher-upside signal-callers in the Big 12. However, Johnson hasn’t provided the same team success that his predecessor, now-Pittsburgh Steelers QB Will Howard, did.

10. Baylor

Week 1: at Auburn at 12:30 p.m. Saturday (ABC)

Head coach Dave Aranda may be on one of the hotter seats in the conference, having gone 22-28 in four seasons since a 12-2 campaign in his second year. Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway, whose father Derek starred as a running back at Baylor (1997-2001), gives the Bears a lot of upside.

11. TCU (0-1)

Week 1: Bye week coming off Ireland game

The Horned Frogs were reportedly very high on what Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig was bringing to replace now-Indiana quarterback Josh Hoover, but it was a very disappointing Power Four debut (20 of 32 for 175 passing yards and a 36.9 QB rating).

Tier 5: Danger zone

12. Kansas

Week 1: vs. Long Island University at 5 p.m. Friday (ESPNU)

The Jalon Daniels era is over in Lawrence, as his run as the starting quarterback for the better part of this decade so far has run its course. The Jayhawks named young dual-threat quarterback Isaiah Marshall the starter over Cole Ballard, who had much more game experience over a three-year span.

13. Cincinnati

Week 1: vs. Boston College at 12:30 p.m. Saturday (FOX)

The Bearcats, who have steadily increased by two wins in each year under Scott Satterfield, did a lot of work to put talent around Georgia Southern transfer quarterback JC French IV. Their top four transfer portal additions were all wide receivers, though only Oklahoma transfer JV Gibson (199 yards in 2025) came from an FBS program.

14. West Virginia

Week 1: vs. Coastal Carolina at 9 a.m. Saturday (TNT)

Speaking of Oklahoma transfers, all signs point to former Sooners quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. getting the starting nod at West Virginia. In his lone start last season, Hawkins was responsible for four touchdowns in a 44-0 win over Kent State.

Time will tell whether head coach Rich Rodriguez can see a similar jump in wins to the six-win leap during his first West Virginia stint in Year 2 about a quarter century ago.

15. Colorado

Week 1: at Georgia Tech at 5 p.m. Thursday (ESPN)

The Buffaloes brought in 43 transfers, tied for their most in a single offseason since Deion Sanders’ first season (53). That was after losing a few key pieces, such as wide receiver Omarion Miller (ASU) and offensive tackle Jordan Seaton (LSU).

Sophomore quarterback Julian Lewis didn’t throw an interception over his 94 attempts (four appearances), but he also hasn’t yet shown the upside that his five-star status out of high school would suggest.

16. Iowa State

Week 1: vs. Southeast Missouri State at 10 a.m. Saturday (ESPN+)

The departure of head coach Matt Campbell to Penn State could leave a lasting mark on the Cyclones.

Only one Big 12 team (Oklahoma State) took in more transfer additions than Iowa State’s 48, but none were ranked as four-star prospects. Among the four other teams to net only three-star prospects, none had more than 34 additions.

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