What’s the sweet spot for Carson Beck starts in 2026?
There's no real debate over whether or not 2026 third-round pick Carson Beck will start for the Cardinals. It's more about when he will.
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There’s no real debate over whether 2026 third-round pick Carson Beck will start for the Arizona Cardinals.
Given where Arizona stands quarterback-wise and the expectation of another losing season in 2026, Beck’s path to starting was put in motion as soon as his name was called.
There should be no ifs about it. This is very much a “when” situation.
Not throwing Beck out there as a rookie would be negligent for a team needing to know whether it already has a franchise option on the roster before a potentially loaded 2027 draft class rolls around.
His rookie sample size can’t be just a few games, either. There needs to be plenty of tape to glean from.
Getting too far ahead can be detrimental, too. A good way to shake a rookie quarterback’s confidence is to throw him to the wolves before he’s truly ready.
It really comes down to finding that sweet spot.
Ideally, I would have liked to see a home start coming off the bye. But with Arizona’s bye coming in Week 14, that thinking is firmly out the window.
Instead, let’s pinpoint Week 8 at the Dallas Cowboys, based on a few different factors.
For one, Dallas marks one of Arizona’s only reprieves from expected playoff teams through the first seven weeks of the season. And even then, they’re still projected right around nine wins this year.
That’s a much better landing spot than rolling Beck against the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams or Denver Broncos, though.
And while Beck would immediately face teams like the Seahawks, Rams and Kansas City Chiefs after Dallas, he would get a late-season stretch of winnable games against New York (Jets), New Orleans and Las Vegas where he can build his confidence and flash what he’s learned under LaFleur. Two of those games are at home, too.
Rolling out Beck from Dallas on would also mean a decent sample size of 10 games for the Cardinals to work off of. What Beck shows on tape is going to greatly impact how Arizona navigates the position in 2027.
If he doesn’t show enough, Arizona will likely head back to the quarterback well in next year’s draft, albeit higher up the draft board. But if Beck proves he can be the guy, that puts the Cardinals in a prime position to upgrade other spots on the roster. Pass rusher or right tackle, anyone?
And unlike this past draft which had limited signal-calling talent, dangling out a top five pick — which the Cardinals are projected to have — on the trade market could result in a quarterback-needy team taking the bait in a big way.
Then there’s the team morale perspective.
Going the rookie quarterback route too early could potentially send a message to players that Arizona is already looking to the future.
Players want to contribute now. They aren’t looking at the long-term impact of landing high draft picks like a lot of fans do. And they for sure aren’t signing up to openly lose.
And after seeing tight end Trey McBride and wide receiver Michael Wilson take massive steps forward working with quarterback Jacoby Brissett last year, just how on board would they be with a rookie quarterback finding his NFL bearings at the expense of their production?
Unless Beck really steals the show this training camp, or Brissett’s contract talks with the team stall out and he ends up elsewhere, seeing the veteran start Week 1 feels much more realistic.
“Ultimately, you’re going to play the best player that you think is going to give you the best chance to win. Period,” head coach Mike LaFleur said ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. “If all things are equal, then yes, you’d rather have that veteran kind of show that guy.
“But again, if we all believe as an organization that the young guy is going to give you the best chance during that 60-minute game to win, then you’re going to throw them out there.”
However it shakes out, be ready to see Beck lead the offense at some point or another.
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Comments
8 Comments
Starting Beck is absolutely not a "when", at least not before actual playoff elimination.
Let's say the Cards beat the Giants and Lions (both winnable with the Lions in AZ), upset SF and/or Seattle (who they lost to by 1 and 3 pts respectively early last season), and upset Denver at home (who I think is overrated), putting them about 4-3 and potentially a game or two out of first place.
There's no way Beck starts week 8 at that point, and the schedule gets remarkably easier on paper after that.
Likely? I wouldn't say that. Impossible? Not in the least.
Do you evaluate Brissett by stats or wins and loses?
Seasons have to be played, not predicted. We don't know how prevalent injuries will be on any team. Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition, and no one expected the 08 Cardinals or the 23 Diamondbacks. But this logic works in reverse as well, though expectations are so low here that it will be hard for the Cardinals to go below them. But there is talent there if the Cards stay relatively healthy. But Cardinals fans are understandably wary of being hopeful.