A financial perspective if the Cardinals draft Jeremiyah Love

The idea of the Arizona Cardinals drafting Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick has caused a commotion.

Love could be the first back drafted in the top five since 2018. The NFL has devalued running backs, not because the consensus evaluations of Love are poor at all.

He is, after all, the No. 2 overall prospect on ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest big board.

Because we know the NFL’s rookie salary scales, we know how much Love would be paid if he were drafted by Arizona. And in terms of the economics, it does not add up.

2026 NFL Draft’s third pick contract at rookie scale

• 2026: $9.2 million
• 2027: $11.5 million
• 2028: $13.8 million
• 2029: $16.1 million
• Average: $12.5 million average annual value ($50.1 million total over four years with a fifth-year option)

That scale would place Love among the highest-paid running backs in the game.

The average annual value would come in at seventh-most expensive for running backs in the NFL, reasonable to expect you have a top-10 running back with such a high pick.

NFL running back salaries in top annual average value

1. Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley: $20.6 million
2. San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey: $19 million
3. Baltimore’s Derrick Henry: $15 million
4. Kansas City’s Kenneth Walker III: $14.4 million
5. New York’s Breece Hall: $14.3 million
6. Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor: $14 million
7. New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara: $12.3 million
8. New Orleans’ Travis Etienne: $12 million
9. Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs: $12 million
10. Buffalo’s James Cook: $11.5 million

Looking at next year only, do you get top-10 rushing production if you don’t have a top-10 offensive line creating windows for Love?

ESPN’s Benjamin Solak put it in this perspective: A wide receiver drafted third overall would be paid as the 30th-best at his position league-wide. An edge rusher drafted third would be 32nd.

“If you hit on those players, then you’re getting above-market talent … at far below market rates. Whereas if you do hit on Love and the offensive line comes together such that you have a good running game, you’re still paying market rate for it,” Solak said.

“Jeremiyah Love to the Cardinals or to the Titans (at No. 4) is far from a terrible pick, but it is, from a long-term team-building perspective, not the optimal play. Not by a long shot.”

Please do not take Jeremiyah Love at 3 overall pic.twitter.com/9TY8bxWdCO

— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 20, 2026

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