Team USA-France Olympic basketball preview: Stage set for gold medal thriller

When used inside the context of international basketball, the phrase “the world has caught up” to the United States is infuriatingly inaccurate.

If the Americans play in a high-level contest, like Thursday’s thrilling semifinals finish against Serbia, that phrase enters the discourse. That is not catching up. That is just being good enough to be competitive. Catching up would be playing Team USA 50-50 and defeating them a handful of times over a short period of time instead of once or twice a decade in Olympic play. We’re not there yet. Maybe we are in the future. But we’re not there yet.

That tees up Saturday’s gold medal matchup with France, because what the Serbians showed is that if Team USA plays an average to below-average brand of basketball, it will lose. The gap is not large enough anymore to scoot by on lengthy incompetent stretches of games. Thursday required an unbelievable fourth quarter to eek out a victory.

Saturday will require consistency and poise in a rematch of the 2021 Olympic final in Tokyo.

Head coach Steve Kerr closed the semifinals with a lineup of Stephen Curry, Devin Booker, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Joel Embiid. This was effectively the starting lineup with Durant swapped in for Jrue Holiday, and given Durant’s calf injury had him start the Olympics on the bench, we can presume this was the planned five and the one we’ll see on Saturday.

The secret sauce in the comeback was rebounding and running. Serbia finally cooled off from 3 and the United States crashed the glass with real desperation that it extended to getting going in transition.

Team USA’s halfcourt reliance on off-ball motions for Curry, and Embiid’s individual scoring was too heavy on Thursday, which is why keeping the game out of that space as much as possible will benefit the Americans.

Kerr attempted to get away with a deep rotation but he went one game too long. The closing five, plus Holiday, Anthony Edwards and Anthony Davis should be the eight. Edwards had a rough go on Thursday in the few minutes he was initiating the offense, proving incapable of the decision-making process, but his emphatic on-ball defense and scoring in other areas should be given another chance. France will play three bigs, so we’ll probably see Bam Adebayo too, a fair call to make given he’s been good like Davis.

James has been pretty incredible as a jumbo playmaking floor general. With Durant out there, that should bring some big-time relief to the offense and the duo should balance it back out. Durant has maintained his intent to score despite the superstar squad, a key part of the adjustment guys naturally lose when they’re trying to be unselfish. That was Booker in the semifinal, passing up a few decent looks. Let it fly, Book.

There is not a continuity advantage here for the French side that you might expect.

France returns seven players from the 2021 matchups while it is five for the Americans. Both teams play completely differently from the Tokyo matchup. Evan Fournier no longer leads the French attack, which is instead prioritized around Victor Wembanyama, while James is the head of the American snake.

Wembanyama has not had the star-making tournament it looked like the night sky was aligning toward. He has largely struggled to establish himself as a scorer, shooter and playmaker, instead putting points on the board where he can inside the gaps while defending supremely well.

The Frenchman is shooting 37.5% from the field and 27.6% from 3 with only four free throw attempts per game, a surprising mark considering how much larger he is and how aggressive he has been trying to score.

It’s easy to forget Wembanyama is only 20 years old when we have been so quick to anoint him with future greatness.

While playing Team USA allows opponents to play free and feel like there’s no pressure on them, that does not apply when an Olympic gold medal is on the line. And it sure as hell does not apply when you are playing that game in the country across the front of your jersey.

Speaking of that, the crowd will be a huge advantage for France. Think of it as a boost for them instead of something that will rattle Team USA. Maybe it can shake up one American or two. But LeBron James? Stephen Curry? Kevin Durant? Nah.

When Germany dominated France in pool play, it was primarily because it took the crowd out of the game right away. A more competitive semifinals surprisingly saw a confident German side tighten up.

The message in USA’s pregame locker room will be to get out to a fast start and hijack the crowd’s enthusiasm. The opening 10 minutes will play a giant role in the whole game.

This is a really, really good French squad. It nearly lost to the massive underdogs Japan in pool play, a suggestion that the group wasn’t jelling and it wouldn’t be France’s year. But a fantastic effort in a physical war against Germany in the semifinals was all of France’s potential coming through.

Diehards of the NBA Draft process might know this: Do not use a lack of name recognition across France’s roster as a way to minimize the amount of NBA-quality talent.

Isaia Cordinier, Mathias Lessort and Guerschon Yabusele are all former selections with NBA athleticism and ability who are having fantastic tournaments. Cordinier can shoot and handle with great speed, Lessort is an undersized power big who cleans up around the basket while Yabusele is a high-end combination of strength and agility. All three of their agents are probably having conversations with NBA front offices right now.

In the opposite vein of Team USA not trying to upset anyone with the aforementioned deep rotations, France has shockingly moved Rudy Gobert to a bench role. The postgame of a quarterfinals win after this first occurred led to some confusion. Gobert and his teammates referred to surgery he had on his finger as a reason for the move, while the coach didn’t go that far and also noted the matchup aspects played into his decision.

However the injury is or isn’t playing into this, Gobert is hardly playing at all so France can maximize spacing with Wembanyama at the 5 while also still finding Lessort minutes he has earned. Gobert has played four and five minutes in the last two games, respectively. Team USA has too much shooting, especially if Durant starts, for Gobert to see much of the floor.

Fournier has moved to the bench in favor of Cordinier but is still capable of absolutely torching a FIBA game at any moment. He was unreal in 2021 and is the premium shot-maker on this squad. Fellow NBA veteran Nic Batum will be nails and impact the game everywhere, as he has for over a decade. Frank Ntilikina was a more high-profile prospect who recently made the transition to playing overseas and brings his pesky defense. France will also mix in Andrew Albicy and Matthew Strazel at guard, as well as 37-year-old Nando de Colo, who also spent time in the NBA.

When Albicy, de Colo, Fournier and Strazel are on the floor, Team USA has to maximize the advantages of hunting those mismatches. There is a real lack of either size or speed from those guards, and the USA attacking them is what having a superstar roster is all about. France can’t hide those guys anywhere. Certainly, the cerebral James will be eyeing that.

Lessort, Wembanyama and Yabusele are going to be physical on the offensive glass. Once again, eliminating those second chances and sparking the transition game is the name of the game for Team USA.

Lastly, Olympic final Kevin Durant is the final boss of all basketball. In three gold medal games, he is averaging 29.6 points per game. Toss in the 28 points against Turkey in the 2010 FIBA World Championships, too, if you want. Expect to see him at his best.

What time is the USA-France Olympic basketball gold medal game?

Saturday, 12:30 p.m. MST

TV: NBC, Peacock, NBCOlympics.com

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