Diamondbacks-Padres preview: Probable starters, D-backs magic number and clinching scenarios

After a sucker-punch of a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday and dropping two-of-three against the San Francisco Giants this week, the Arizona Diamondbacks are hanging on by a thread in the NL postseason race.

Arizona currently holds the third NL Wild Card spot, leading the Atlanta Braves by just one game. The New York Mets hold the second spot, but only two of the three will see October.

With the Mets and Braves getting the final two games of their series postponed to Monday, it’s possible the Diamondbacks won’t know their fate until Monday night.

“We’re going wait and see what happens on Monday, but this team is miraculous, the way they bounce back and get together, believe in one another,” Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall told Arizona Sports’ Bickley & Marotta on Thursday. “These guys are looking like themselves and we need them down the stretch to be themselves.”

Until then, the Diamondbacks now shift all their attention to the San Diego Padres, a team that’s already clinched an NL Wild Card spot.

The Padres were challenging the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West title, but the Padres dropped two-of-three to the Dodgers in their series that concluded on Thursday, granting the Dodgers their 11th division title in 12 years.

A magic number for the Diamondbacks to clinch a postseason spot is three, meaning if the Diamondbacks sweep the Padres this weekend, they’re in.

But the Padres will pose no easy task for Arizona, as the Diamondbacks look to reach the postseason in back-to-back seasons since 2001-02.

“We hope that everybody is coming in here playing for something because that’s when our team steps up,” Hall said. “But we’re a better team than we were last year and the record reflects that.”

Diamondbacks-Padres probable starters

Friday: Arizona RHP Merrill Kelly (5-0, 3.71) vs. San Diego RHP Yu Darvish (6-3, 3.18)

Saturday: Arizona TBD vs. San Diego TBD

Sunday: Arizona TBD vs. San Diego TBD

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly will take the mound in the series opener on Friday, opposing Padres right-hander Yu Darvish.

Kelly has experienced leg cramping three times this season, most recently in his last start against the Brewers. When healthy, Kelly has posted a 3.71 ERA in 12 starts this season. Darvish, who’s dealt with injuries of his own in 2024, has recorded a 3.18 ERA in 15 starts this season.

The probables for Saturday and Sunday have yet to be announced. Manager Torey Lovullo said Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez could start those games but nothing has been finalized yet.

“There’s a lot that goes into that. We got see how we match up with the Padres and we got to win baseball games,” Lovullo said. “If the series goes in a very positive way, we may make some adjustments to set up for the postseason.

“There’s a lot of contingency based on the next two days. Your starting point could be in line and  (we) make some adjustments. It could be Kelly, E-Rod, Pfaadt but we haven’t made that firm. Where it goes from today on is very fluid.”

Lovullo said on Arizona Sports Burns & Gambo Friday that Ryne Nelson, who was activated off the injured list Thursday, will likely be used as a reliever for this weekend’s series.

“He’s got a certain pitch count that we spit out and we feel comfortable putting him in that range,” Lovullo. “Not quite enough for him be to be a starter yet. We know if the season advances beyond these next three days, and we’re very hopeful for that and energized for that, that we might shuffle it a little bit and put him back in the starting rotation.

“For right now, we most likely will see him coming out of the bullpen but I want to use every bullet I can. I want to use every one of his quality pitches that I possibly can. I remember not so long ago, 16 days ago, he was one our best pitchers and one of the best pitchers in the National League, so I want to use that to the best of our availability.”

Lovullo did not rule out using Zac Gallen in some capacity if needed for this weekend’s series. Gallen last pitched on Wednesday, throwing six innings with one run on two hits and striking out 11 batters in the D-backs 8-2 win vs. the San Francisco Giants.

“I know Zac. I know if it comes to the last day, he’s going to be like ‘let me get in and throw some fireballs at these guys,'” Lovullo said. “I know how he is and know how he’s wired. If we get down into that position, it’s going to be all hands on deck and that’s where are at.

“That’s our mentality. We are all in, fighting this together and we all want to go out and do just a little bit more for one another. Not going outside of our comfort zone but to just to be there and present and engaged for one another, and I know Zac fits into that mold for sure.

How to watch Diamondbacks-Padres

All three games will be televised on DBACKS.TV through channel 34 on Cox.

The whole series will be available on the Arizona Sports app,98.7 and ArizonaSports.com.

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