Ryan Dunn on pace for 1-of-a-kind rookie turnaround for Suns

PHOENIX — It’s only been a month, but it feels like if you are waiting for Phoenix Suns rookie Ryan Dunn to turn into a pumpkin, you are going to be stuck waiting.

Dunn was the story of the team’s preseason, having as much of a breakout in exhibition play as one could. It has carried over to the regular season, when, through five games, Dunn is averaging 9.4 points while shooting 44% from 3-point range.

That is a jaw-dropping development for those that scouted Dunn in college. Draft experts like The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie are declaring they have “never” seen a prospect grow this quickly before.

If he keeps this up, Dunn at the very least looks like an All-Rookie lock, and perhaps more (which we’ll get to in a minute).

So how’d we get here?

Dunn was selected by Phoenix 28th overall in the 2024 NBA Draft, a selection a handful of teams would have even deemed too high because of the massive concerns on his offensive game. It’s a little too simplified to call a draft prospect a “zero” on offense, but because of his brilliant defensive profile, Dunn was under a major microscope on that end.

That identification revealed a player that reached double-digit scoring in 13 of his 65 collegiate games at Virginia. He attempted 51 total 3s and only made a dozen for a conversion rate of 23.5%. The tape was even worse, showing someone who was incredibly tentative to shoot. Off the bounce, he was indecisive and lacked gusto to consistently get his own shot at the rim, where 35 assists and 42 turnovers over his time highlighted major improvement needed if he were to become a slasher to compensate for his jumper.

Opponents were flat out leaving Dunn alone in the corner. As shooters with confidence issues often do, Dunn would dance between either staying there and preparing for the open 3-poniter he would take or instead reject that opportunity to cut into open space instead. This led to many disjointed moments for him, whether it was him not shooting when open or compromising the spacing with his decision-making. Virginia mainly used him as a screener, where using Dunn as a play finisher was the best solution.

If all of that was the large flashing red flag akin to a sign you’d see on the Vegas strip, the underlying gulp came from a 52-for-99 (52.5%) number at the free-throw line.

Free-throw percentage can often be a reliable tool for whether or not an iffy shooting prospect can improve. If you were like a kid that got lost in a museum during a field trip, that 52.5% was like the adult that found you and reunited you with the rest of the class, guiding you back down the logical conclusion that Dunn was never going to be able to shoot.

Devin Booker would have just kept wandering to find the T-Rex.

“He only shot one attempt per game,” Booker said. “I think college is a tough assessment to judge a shooter. I usually look at form and mechanics, and everything looks there. So it’s not surprising me.”

That was the key here. Dunn’s jumper was never “broken.” The glaring issue, by far, was confidence. He agreed with the assessment that the largest mechanical tweak so far has been keeping his base consistent, the part of a jumper the best will tell you is the most important.

Former Suns wing Ish Wainright, another player that had an inconsistent jumper, used to tell stories of how, when he would park himself in the corner in front of the team bench, all of his teammates and coaches were in his ear about shooting if the ball comes his way on that possession.

Phoenix has been giving Dunn similar encouragement and all the veterans have raved about how both he and Oso Ighodaro not only listen but ask lots of questions too.

“I think it’s just understanding the fact that you’re gonna miss some but you gotta keep taking ’em,” Dunn said. “Earlier in my years, I probably would have stopped shooting or tried to get to the rim. For now, it’s just continuing to shoot the ball anytime, make or miss.”

So what’s the big difference? Having Booker and Kevin Durant telling you to shoot? Is it being in the league now?

“Kind of the league, kind of the team — their model is getting 3s up,” Dunn said. “I think that’s the biggest thing. … Obviously, Devin and Kevin telling us to shoot and everybody else as well.”

The turnaround is remarkable, and the craziest part of this is that Dunn’s not necessarily being left wide open by NBA teams like he was in college. Over half of his makes this year have come when he’s got a defender either near or in his orbit. He’s drilled one off the bounce with space and even shown some relocation skills too.

The impressive thing about Ryan Dunn and the 3s is that these are not just wide-open looks.

He’s shooting with confidence when defenders are either in or near his orbit. He’s even stepping into them with a dribble and also relocating off the ball. It’s a remarkable evolution. pic.twitter.com/f6fNRUNIEq

— Kellan Olson (@KellanOlson) November 1, 2024

Clearly, at some point in the scouting process, the Suns were able to pinpoint some potential. It is worth noting their general manager is James Jones, a guy who would know a thing or two about jump shots.

“We had him in for workouts and we watched him shoot and I think that was a real area to dig in on,” Suns head coach Mike Budenholzer said. “When you get these guys going through the draft process (and) you get them in your gym, there’s certain things you maybe want to give extra attention to, so watching him shoot. As a group — the front office, the coaches — all of us talked about his mechanics and his shot. Overall, we were encouraged. Were there some things we thought we could help him with and help him grow and develop? Yeah, but the basics, we were encouraged.”

Phoenix trusted that through an NBA Combine that Dunn did not shoot well at and the work did not show itself at summer league, either.

“It was disappointing at the combine, it was disappointing at summer league, it was disappointing at college but it was just trying to get the work in,” Dunn said.

The inconsistencies will come. Dunn is not going to shoot 44% for the season. There is a dip approaching. But for him to even have the ability to spark a game offensively in this manner is unforeseen, and you could even go as far as saying it was unforeseen for the projection of his entire career.

Dunn has knocked down at least three 3-pointers in three of his five games. He only made more than one at Virginia once.

He scored 16 points in Thursday’s win, which would have tied for the second-most points he produced in a collegiate game. You wouldn’t believe it but Dunn said his defensive pedigree didn’t start till college and he was more of an offensive-minded player in high school. The depths his defensive play stooped to were to the point where other teams were targeting him.

Before we go, it should not go unmentioned that if Phoenix indeed knocked this one out of the park, it did so in a draft that everyone had absolutely no idea on. A week-and-a-half in, none of the lottery selection are included as some of the top-performing rookies. That should change over time, but the Dunn selection has a chance to be the best value selection in the whole draft. And if Dunn keeps this going with legitimate rotation minutes, he will get some love in the Rookie of the Year conversation.

The key is, keep shooting. So far, Dunn is doing that. Thursday included two misses to begin his night before not hesitating on his next three opportunities and he buried all three.

“I know how it is rookie year, it’s a long season,” Booker said. “Not being discouraged if he misses a few (because) we need him shooting those shots.”

Follow @KellanOlson