ASU will make Big 12 Championship with a win vs. Arizona, except for 1 tiebreaker scenario

The Big 12 curiously held off clarifying tiebreaker scenarios to media members requesting assistance ahead of Arizona State’s meeting with BYU on Saturday. The reason?

It was complicated as all heck then, and we know because it is still crazy complex after a week of games. The summation: ASU’s track to the Big 12 Championship Game is pretty clear-cut: beat the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson on Saturday.

FanDuel Sportsbook currently has the Sun Devils as the odds favorite at +135 to win the title game as of Monday, mostly because they have the best shot of making it in the first place.

Yet, the Sun Devils are among the nine teams still in contention to make the game and win the conference.

ASU is atop the league with a 6-2 conference record. BYU, Iowa State and Colorado all have that same record, while five more teams are just a game back of that at 5-3. That group is Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia.

Any of those 5-3 teams, for a shot at a title game, must win and see at least three of the teams entering the regular season finale at 6-2 take a loss.

The Big 12 sent out a press release Sunday with official tiebreakers that laid out one very, very specific scenario where Arizona State could beat the Wildcats and still miss out on the title game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

If Houston beats BYU, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor drops Kansas and Cincinnati defeats TCU, then the Sun Devils will be left out for Colorado against Iowa State — if CU and ISU also win.

How unlikely is that in betting odds terms? Adding an ASU win to make that a seven-game parlay would give you +7739 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Big 12 Football Championship Game tiebreakers for 7-2 teams after Saturday

Two-team tie

• The two tied teams at 7-2 will be the Championship game participants.

Three-team tie

• Colorado loss: Arizona State vs. Iowa State
• Arizona State loss: Iowa State vs. BYU
• Iowa State loss: Arizona State vs. BYU
• BYU loss:
  • If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then
    • If Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU: Colorado vs. Iowa State
    • Otherwise: Colorado vs. Arizona State
  • If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech: Arizona State vs. Iowa State

Four-team tie

• Arizona State vs. Iowa State

Teams who are 5-3 entering the week must win and see at least three of the four 6-2 teams take a loss.

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What is the Big 12 schedule for all the title game contenders?

Friday

Oklahoma State at No. 23 Colorado – 10 a.m. (ABC)

Saturday

Kansas at Baylor – 10 a.m. (ESPN2)

West Virginia at Texas Tech – 10 a.m. (FS1)

No. 14 Arizona State at Arizona – 1:30 p.m. (FOX)

TCU at Cincinnati – 4 p.m. (ESPN+)

Kansas State at No. 17 Iowa State – 5:30 p.m. (FOX)

Houston at No. 19 BYU – 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)

All times MST Arizona time.

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Big 12 Championship odds

*Via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Monday, Nov. 25

Arizona State +135
Iowa State +260
BYU +320
Colorado +650
Baylor +12000
Kansas State +12000
Texas Tech +15000
TCU +15000
West Virginia +40000

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