Get ready to learn Texas, buddy: ASU fans should be rooting for Clemson again
Dec 20, 2024, 11:34 AM
The Arizona State Sun Devils would like chaos while they’re on bye to begin the first 12-team College Football Playoff journey.
In the New Year’s Day Peach Bowl, ASU football will play the winner of No. 5 seed Texas against No. 12 seed Clemson, who clash in a first-round game Saturday.
By CFP ranking rather than seed, there is a larger gap between the favorites and underdog of Arizona State’s potential opponents: No. 3 against No. 16. The Longhorns are favored by double-digits, according to the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sun Devil fans already got behind the Tigers two weeks ago as they upset SMU in the ACC title game, which opened the door for ASU to earn this bye.
In case you need more convincing to watch Texas-Clemson with a strong rooting interest in the Tigers, here’s why they are easily the more favorable on-paper matchup for ASU.
Why should ASU football fans root for Clemson over Texas?
— Texas (11-2) is No. 1 in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ranking with the best odds — and easiest path — to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor metric. That analytic model says the Longhorns have a 40.1% shot at sweeping the next three games and reaching the title game, which is nearly 9% higher than Georgia’s 31.2% chance!
— While Clemson has some happy-to-be-here energy as the only three-loss squad in a 12-team field, the Longhorns have piled up the wins in their first SEC season. Two dings to their momentum came against Georgia, and that’s good motivation for UT to remain locked in as the CFP begins. The carrot at the end of the stick is that beating the Tigers and then ASU would place the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl in Arlington, Texas, for a home-state flavor in the semifinals.
— Arizona State is led by running back Cam Skattebo. If there is one team capable of stopping him, it’d probably be the Longhorns. Texas leads the nation in fewest yards per play allowed (4.0) and is third in fewest total opponent yards allowed per game (249.5). The Longhorns have a top-12 run defense by allowing 3.1 yards per play. For context, ASU is tied for 35th by allowing 3.8 yards per carry to opponents, while Clemson sits tied for 91st at 4.6.
— Per game, Texas allows 106.4 rushing yards (13th), while the Tigers allow 150.5 rushing yards (73rd).
— Who’s behind the success of stopping the run? The Longhorns have what ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly calls the nation’s best linebacker group led by Anthony Hill Jr., who has 90 tackles, 7.5 sacks and four forced fumbles this year.
— Some more quick numbers: Texas has allowed an individual rusher to surpass 60 yards just nine times over 13 games. It’s only seven performances if you don’t include opposing quarterbacks and six players if you consider Georgia’s Trevor Etienne accounted for two of those performances.
— The Tigers, on the other hand, have made due forcing turnovers. Its pass defense is its strength, and it ranks 14th by allowing a completion percentage of just 55.5%.
– Still, it’s a boom-or-bust defense for the Tigers with a No. 8 ranking in the percentage of opponent plays that go for zero or negative yards. When opponents do execute, Clemson ranks 105th in yards allowed per successful play (13.1 yards), according to Connelly. Whispers: The Sun Devils have been averaging 7.8 yards per play overall in their last three games against decent-to-solid opponents. That ranks second in the entire country over that span. ASU’s offense is indeed red-hot if you believe it carries over after a few weeks off.
— Now to the offense comparisons between the Longhorns and Tigers. Both have top-20 passing offenses, and it’s a bit of a toss-up over who is a worse matchup for Arizona State. If you’re accounting for recency bias, Texas’ offense looked clunky behind quarterback Quinn Ewers in the SEC title game against Georgia. For the season, the Longhorns are still No. 4 in Connelly’s offensive S&P ratings.
— If there’s any reason to doubt Texas, it’s this: Ewers was benched by Arch Manning in mid-October before earning the job back. He hasn’t returned to the starting job with as much confidence. Talk around the quarterback is about whether he will leave for the NFL or transfer after this year despite the position UT finds itself in. In short, it would not surprise anyone if Manning — a dual-threat option from the famous quarterback family — jumped into action in the CFP if the offense keeps scuffling.
— Clemson is 12th in offensive S&P this season but, as Connelly points out, has averaged just 19.2 points per game against five teams ranging from 11th to 37th in defensive S&P. ASU’s defensive S&P, for what it’s worth, is 39th.
The Sun Devils can hope the Tigers pull off the upset or at least create more quarterback controversy for the Longhorns.
But the likelihood is that the Sun Devils will be getting ready to learn Texas, buddy.
What time is Clemson vs. Texas in the CFP?
Time: 2 p.m. MST, Saturday
TV: ABC
Streaming: Watch ESPN, Fubo
