Roundtable: 98.7 FM’s D-backs season preview and predictions

It’s Opening Day, and the expectations have spiked for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

A year ago, nobody knew what would come of manager Torey Lovullo’s and GM Mike Hazen’s first season on the job, but the D-backs’ run to the NLDS set the bar high heading into 2018.

With that, we asked radio hosts and producers at 98.7 FM Arizona’s Sports Station to give one last analysis of the offseason and their predictions for the year ahead.

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How many games will the D-backs win this season?

Dave Burns (co-host of Burns & Gambo): I think the D-backs will win 86 games this year, a step back from a year ago in large part because of the departure of J.D. Martinez and the uncertainty of the bullpen. If the pen can be as good as it was a year ago, I could easily see them surpassing 86 wins, but I’m just not sure how the new back-end relievers, Boxberger and Hirano, will do.

Vince Marotta (co-host of Bickley & Marotta): I think the D-backs will win 90 games this season. The loss of J.D. Martinez will be felt, but let’s remember that Arizona played .570 baseball last year before making the trade in July. With another year of their effective rotation intact, the D-backs should be formidable in 2018.

John Gambadoro (co-host of Burns & Gambo): 83

Jordan Byrd (producer of Burns & Gambo, host of Arizona’s Sports Saturday): It’s unrealistic to think the D-backs can reach their same win total of a season ago. Most notably, the loss of Martinez will make this team take a dip in the win column, but not by much. Eighty-six wins.

Luke Lapinski (host of The Rundown): 89

Doug Franz (co-host of Doug & Wolf):  88

Ron Wolfley (co-host of Doug & Wolf): 90

Paul Calvisi (anchor): 86

Mike Jurecki (co-host of The Blitz with B-Train and Jurecki): Eighty-eight games. They’ll be a better team than they were last year but the division has been restored.

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What place will the D-backs finish in the NL West? Is that in the playoffs?

Dave Burns: They’ll finish second in the NL West but their 86 wins will be good enough for the second Wild Card spot.

Vince Marotta: That’s a second-place finish in the NL West, behind the Dodgers and good for one of the National League Wild Card spots.

John Gambadoro: Third place. No playoffs.

Jordan Byrd: Even if the Dodgers underperform, there’s no doubt that they are the class of the NL West division. That being said, it’s a three-team race for second place between the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Giants. I think the D-backs will have enough to finish ahead of the rest of that group and take the runner-up spot to LA in the division. That will be good enough to get the Snakes into the postseason, but only as the second Wild Card team.

Luke Lapinski: Second, and yes that gets them in a Wild Card spot.

Doug Franz: Third. No.

Ron Wolfley: Second.

Paul Calvisi: Third place.

Mike Jurecki: Third in the NL West behind the Dodgers and Rockies, missing the postseason. They’ll be in contention until the end of August.

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Who is an under-the-radar player you have high hopes for in 2018?

Dave Burns: Selfishly, Boxberger, because I drafted him to be one of my closers on my fantasy team. But nobody cares about that. Boxberger is certainly one of the players for me because he’s being asked to fill a very important role — a role that he was given over one of the most popular pro athletes in town. That could be a tough gig. The moment he struggles, some fans might be calling for a switch. My hope is that he’s great at it so it allows Archie to do what he does so well. That can be a lot of pressure. I’d put Godley on this list too. I’m quietly hoping he turns into a solid No. 3 behind Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray.

Vince Marotta: Jarrod Dyson. He was brought in to be a fourth outfielder ideally but will have to start the season as an everyday player thanks to the injury to Steven Souza Jr. If Dyson does what he does — play defense and steal bases — he can be a key contributor for Arizona this season. His championship experience with the Royals won’t hurt either.

John Gambadoro: Ketel Marte

Jordan Byrd: Recent events have forced him into the spotlight as now he has the honor of being the replacement to the replacement of Martinez. For most of spring training, Dyson was being looked at as added depth and someone who could be dangerous on the bases. But now with the injury to Souza, Dyson will be the primary right fielder, and Mike Hazen’s offseason roster construction gets tested right out of the gate. Souza was being looked at as someone who could ease the loss of Martinez. Now the hope is Dyson can do the same.

Luke Lapinski: Not really under the radar locally, but I think Zach Godley makes a name for himself nationally this season.

Doug Franz: I think Zack Godley will fall just short of an All-Star bid.

Ron Wolfley: Zack Godley. He pitched very well when given the opportunity to produce. I think last year’s experience will only make him better and that kind of “better” might make him the best No. 5 starter in the NL.

Paul Calvisi: Ketel Marte. Breakout year coming in 3, 2, 1 … #BlastOff

Mike Jurecki: Ketel Marte, who signed a contract extension right before the season and will be the franchise second baseman for a long time. He was vital when he was called up last year, flashed his glove and has a great deal of pop in his bat.

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Who are the D-backs relying upon the most that you have concern over?

Dave Burns: Probably Yoshihisa Hirano. How will his stuff translate and how long does it take him to adjust to the mound, the ball, the hitters etc.? I’m concerned about A.J. Pollock’s ability to stay healthy. I’m concerned about Jake Lamb hitting in the second half of the season and his sometimes shaky defense at third.

Vince Marotta: A.J. Pollock. I’m pulling harder for him than anyone on the roster this season, but after two injury-affected seasons that have limited him to 124 games since the beginning of the 2016 season, I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have a lot of concern. The D-backs don’t have a collection of natural outfielders on their roster, so Pollock needs to be the rock out there patrolling center field.

John Gambadoro: Zack Greinke.

Jordan Byrd: He’s one of the highest paid players in all of baseball, and as difficult it can be to live up to those expectations, Greinke left us all wanting to see more out of him during last year’s postseason. If you are going to have this much money tied up in one player then he has to be able to carry the team at times. It appears the D-backs dodged a bullet with Greinke’s groin injury and he always seems to take a while to warm up in spring, but the D-backs will need Greinke at his best if they are to return to the playoffs.

Luke Lapinski: Brad Boxberger, just because of the unknown. And the fact that 41 of his 44 career saves all came in 2015. I think he can be successful in that closer’s role though, and having Bradley or Hirano to turn to if needed certainly takes some pressure off. But until we see him working his way through the ninth in meaningful regular season games, there’s still some concern.

Doug Franz: A.J. Pollock.

Ron Wolfley:  A.J. Pollock. He has a hard time staying healthy and the difference in this team when he is healthy is night and day. Jarrod Dyson can play every day in center field but changes the dynamic of the Diamondbacks’ lineup considerably.

Paul Calvisi: Catchers Jeff Mathis and Alex Avila. The D-backs will miss Chris Iannetta.

Mike Jurecki: Defense, and the back end of the rotation. They signed Boxberger and Hirano, and Bradley should be the setup guy where he can give you four to six outs over two innings. The closer is important but the seventh and eighth innings are just as imperative. Manager Torey Lovullo announced on Tuesday that Boxberger will start the season as the closer.

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What grade would you give the D-backs for their offseason?

Dave Burns: I’d give them a B+. It’s the highest payroll they’ve ever had. The Souza acquisition was money right up until he got hurt. I like that they tried to add hard throwers in the pen.

Vince Marotta: On paper, I’d give it a C just because they didn’t do too much. Then again, they didn’t have to. Bouncing back from the loss of Iannetta to sign Avila was a good move and I’m curious to see what a crafty veteran like Hirano can bring to the D-backs’ bullpen. Just staying in the Martinez hunt until late February made the offseason a little more entertaining than it would have been otherwise in a normal year for free agency.

John Gambadoro: B

Jordan Byrd: The Diamondbacks’ reaction to the loss of Martinez was swift and direct. The additions of Souza and Dyson added a safety blanket for the position that the D-backs have already needed. That has softened the blow for what otherwise could have been a catastrophic beginning to the season. Add in the additions of Boxberger and Hirano, and the back end of the bullpen appears to be shored up as well. Not bad considering you lost an MVP candidate over the winter.

Luke Lapinski: B. Can’t really fault them for losing J.D. Martinez, and they attempted to address their biggest needs by bringing in Souza, Dyson, Boxberger and Hirano.

Doug Franz: They’re not as good as the team that ended 2017, so F. They’re a better team coming out of spring training than the 2017 team that won the Wild Card so A. Those two grades average out to a C.

Ron Wolfley: B. Martinez returning would have made it an A. But once Mike Hazen realized Martinez was gone, he acted swiftly and decisively, signing Dyson and Souza quickly.
The bullpen was the most underrated component of this team in 2017, posting the fifth-best ERA in the bigs. They need to repeat that kind of productivity and they have a lot of new faces. This, combined with losing Martinez is why I think they might lose more games than last year.

Paul Calvisi: B-

Mike Jurecki: They added depth the bullpen, Souza replaced Martinez, and Dyson provides depth and speed on the base paths. They need to get production from Jake Lamb, who struggles against left-handed pitching.

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