(Un)Lucky No. 13 for the Suns in draft
Jun 22, 2011, 8:45 PM | Updated: 11:33 pm
When the Suns give their pick to Commissioner David Stern they will be OK as long as they do not write “Jay Humphries, Colorado point guard” on the card. The last time the Suns were in this position, drafting with the lucky number 13, they selected the talented-but-disappointing point guard.
Humphries appeared in only 294 games, averaging a mere 10.76 PPG and 6.33 APG while in a Phoenix Suns uniform. The irony is that if the Suns really valued a point guard in 1984 one was readily available, as future Hall of Famer and perennial All-Star John Stockton was taken three picks after Humphries.
Fast-forward to 2011 and the Suns are poised to make that same mistake. They are entertaining the option of drafting Iman Shumpert over more polished, talented and highly regarded prospects. If the big man the Suns covet is not there at pick No. 13 (or where they land after a trade) the choice may be Shumpert. Only time will tell if the likes of Jimmer Fredette, Darius Morris or Reggie Jackson will make the 2011 NBA Draft history repeated.
The Suns Trend
The Phoenix Suns have drafted in the range of 10-15 nine times in franchise history, with only one All-Star and zero Ring of Honor members coming from this point in the draft.
With the 10th pick the Suns have selected the likes of Greg Howard (1970), Ron Lee (1976) and Ed Pinckney (1985).
The 14th and 15th picks have yielded John Roche (1971), David Thirdkill (1982), Steve Nash (1996), Robin Lopez (2008) and Earl Clark (2009). Recent history has indicated the Suns have not been prepared to draft in the tough middle of the draft.
In the top 10 you can get “franchise changers” and in the 20-30 range you take calculated risks on a prospect you like. Between 11-19 is tough, risks are riskier and the options are vast.
The NBA Trend
Another barometer for teams is recent history. Over the past 10 years what has been the trend of the No. 13 pick? In six of the years the pick became nothing more than a waste of a contract. Courtney Alexander (2000), Marcus Haslip (2002), Marcus Banks (2003), Sebastian Telfair 2004), Sean may (2005) and Julian Wright (2007) all made no impact on the team that selected them.
Of the quality players selected here only Richard Jefferson (2001) had any time spent as a “star” player. Solid role players include Thabo Sefalosha (2006), Brandon Rush (2008) and Tyler Hansbrough (2009). The jury is still out on Ed Davis (2010), who posted solid numbers as a rookie and could have been a top 5 pick if not for injury issues in college.
That means quality is not the norm when selecting at the No. 13 spot in the NBA Draft as of late.
Reality Check
The 2011 Draft is what it is, the 13th pick is what it is and getting a top eight rotation player is a win. Look to 2012 for the potential superstars. If the Phoenix Suns have that mentality in 24 hours the 2011 NBA Draft will be a success. Trouble will arise if the Suns over-value this year’s prospects and put all their eggs into this year’s draft, which is not the route to go.
