Cardinals have toughest strength of schedule per PFF, expected to win fewest games

The road back to contention was already shaping up to be a steep climb for the Arizona Cardinals, but new analytical projections suggest the path ahead might be even more brutal than anticipated.

Pro Football Focus recently released its 2026 win totals and betting values for all 32 NFL teams based on thousands of season simulations. PFF compared every team’s projected win total with sportsbook futures markets to spot early betting edges ahead of training camp.

For Arizona, the results are sobering.

The Cardinals are projected to win just 4.33 games, the lowest projected win total in the entire league. Much of that outlook stems from a daunting slate of opponents.

Based on last year’s win totals, Arizona sports the third-toughest schedule in the NFL, yet PFF’s metrics grade the Cardinals’ overall schedule as the absolute toughest in the league, placing an immense burden on a team still working to establish consistency.

Adding to the difficulty is a grueling early-season travel schedule. Arizona opens the regular season on the road for the fourth consecutive year, taking on quarterback Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. In total, six of the Cardinals’ first nine games will be played away from State Farm Stadium.

To make matters worse, Arizona won’t get a break until Week 14, receiving the latest possible bye week on the NFL calendar.

The back half of the schedule does offer a bit of late-season relief, with six of Arizona’s final eight games taking place at home. However, navigating the tough NFC West will remain a formidable challenge. The Cardinals went 0-6 against divisional foes last season, and their division rivals aren’t expected to step back anytime soon:

Los Angeles Rams: PFF grades their schedule as the third toughest in the league, yet projects them to win a league-high 11.13 games.

Seattle Seahawks: Holding the fifth-toughest strength of schedule, Seattle is projected for 10.96 wins, the second-highest mark in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers: Facing the 14th-toughest schedule, San Francisco is projected to win 9.83 games (10th-most).

With three division rivals projected to win around 10 or more games, the Cardinals face a daunting task as training camp approaches.

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