How can Diamondbacks make postseason in final weekend? Scenarios, probables and stakes

SAN DIEGO — The Arizona Diamondbacks’ path to the postseason became clear on Thursday: They have to catch the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Wild Card standings.

Arizona (85-74) has won five straight contests to keep its playoff hopes alive, trailing Philadelphia (87-72) by two games with three to play.

The Chicago Cubs (88-71) and San Diego Padres (89-70) both clinched playoff spots on Thursday, the Padres doing so by winning two of three games at the Los Angeles Dodgers.

San Diego clinching is particularly notable because the D-backs finish the season with three games at Petco Park, starting Friday. The Phillies host the American League’s top seed, the Tampa Bay Rays.

This is the fourth straight season in which the Diamondbacks entered the final weekend of the regular season with at least an outside chance to make the playoffs.

The Diamondbacks’ elimination number is two, meaning any combination of Arizona losses and Philadelphia wins adding up to two ends the former’s playoff aspirations. FanGraphs gives Arizona an 11% shot.

The Phillies face the Rays on Friday at 3:40 p.m. MST, meaning the D-backs may know by first pitch in San Diego at 6:40 p.m. whether they need to win just to remain mathematically alive in the race.

How can the Diamondbacks make the playoffs?

There are three scenarios in which the Diamondbacks catch Philadelphia and make the playoffs:

• Diamondbacks sweep Padres, Phillies lose 2/3 to Rays
• Diamondbacks win 2/3 over Padres, Phillies get swept by Rays
• Diamondbacks sweep Padres, Phillies get swept by Rays

The Diamondbacks simply need to be at least two games better than the Phillies over the final three games due to having the tiebreaker.

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record, and the two teams split six games this year. The next tiebreaker is record within one’s own division, and the D-backs have earned that advantage at 31-18 against the NL West while the Phillies were 28-24 against the NL East.

There is a remote possibility of a three-team tie between Chicago, Arizona and Philadelphia (Cubs 0-3, D-backs 3-0, Phillies 1-2). In that case, the Cubs would be the second Wild Card team since they won their season series against both Arizona and Philadelphia, and the D-backs would get the third spot by having the tiebreaker over the Phillies. The Cubs end their regular season against the Boston Red Sox.

Who are the probable pitchers?

Diamondbacks-Padres

Friday: Arizona RHP Brandon Pfaadt (7-3, 3.72) vs. San Diego RHP Casey Mize (6-9, 3.96)

Saturday: Arizona RHP Corbin Burnes (0-0, 7.84) vs. San Diego RHP Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.56)

Sunday: Arizona RHP Michael Soroka (9-5, 3.31) vs. TBA

Rays-Phillies

Friday: Tampa Bay RHP Freddy Peralta (9–11, 4.56) vs. Philadelphia LHP Cristopher Sánchez (18–6, 2.93)

Saturday: Tampa Bay RHP Griffin Jax (8–10, 3.62) vs. TBA

Sunday: Tampa Bay RHP Nick Martinez (15–5, 2.94) vs. Philadelphia RHP Zack Wheeler (13–5, 3.06)

What do the Padres, Rays have left to play for?

The Padres are in the playoffs, but their seed is up for grabs.

San Diego enters Friday as the top NL Wild Card team, one game ahead of the Cubs. The top Wild Card team hosts the opening round of the postseason, a best-of-three series with all three games in one location. That is what is at stake for the Padres, who do not have the tiebreaker over the Cubs and must stay a game ahead to guarantee playoff baseball at Petco Park this fall.

The Rays do not have as much to play for, tangibly.

Tampa Bay locked up the AL East, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs.

The Rays will not play again until Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday, Oct. 3, a lengthy layoff. How they decide to manage their lineups and pitching staff given that upcoming break is a major storyline to watch this weekend for the Diamondbacks.

Diamondbacks-Phillies stakes

The Diamondbacks are looking to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2023, when they stunned Philadelphia in Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS to win the pennant. They finished within three games of a playoff spot in back-to-back years since, and manager Torey Lovullo’s contract is up after this season. Another near-miss will lead to major decisions early this offseason.

The Phillies returned to the playoffs in each of the last two years, but they were a game away from reaching the 2023 World Series and have not made it back to the NLCS since that Game 7 loss to Arizona. The club fired manager Rob Thomson after a slow start this season and inserted Don Mattingly as the interim skipper. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner are each in their Age 33 seasons and Wheeler is 36 years old, as the urgency is high for this core to strike while their its window remains open.

Philadelphia suffered a blow on Thursday, as Luis Arraez suffered a left ankle sprain and will be re-evaluated on Friday.

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