The future of Archie Goodwin is a catch 22 for the Suns

NBA teams with the ability to show patience as their young players develop can find that it pays off.

In the case of the Phoenix Suns and Archie Goodwin, there’s a problem with patience.

Goodwin’s rookie contract will end before he’s close to reaching his potential, and Phoenix faces this conflict for drafting the then-18-year-old in 2013. Now 21 years old, Goodwin is still finding his way and is far from a finished product.

He’s also in a catch 22.

The Suns will find it hard to be patient if Goodwin is not ready to contribute to a winning team. At the same time, they probably won’t reap the rewards of any patience unless they act impatiently by giving the youngster playing time before he’s ready — Goodwin needs minutes to grow into himself and the team needs that to know what type of player they’re dealing with.

In all likelihood, the Suns will exercise their 2016-17 team option on Goodwin’s deal (they have until Nov. 2 to do so).

But Goodwin is fighting an uphill battle to prove himself, even if that option is picked up. This season, rookie guard Devin Booker, and veterans Sonny Weems and Ronnie Price, threaten to take available minutes at the guard spots behind Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight.

Next year may not provide the Suns a final opportunity to make a final call on Goodwin. Bogdan Bogdanovic, another player who can play either point or shooting guard, could join the Suns with an option to leave his Turkish squad. Price is a free agent and Phoenix could decide not to pay Weems’ second-year team option.

There are many lenses to view Goodwin’s tenure with the Suns and looking through all of them at once cloud his future with the team. The effort and talent is there. The results haven’t been.

Still, it’s not far-fetched to believe Goodwin — whether he plays or not — can become the most intriguing Suns commodity that other teams would be attracted to.

Everyone sees Goodwin’s talent. He’s the ultimate slasher, a long, quick and athletic guard who can get to the rim and finish — in theory. Within minutes of reviewing clips of Goodwin, a few faults appear.

(I looked specifically at the March 13 game against the Hawks last season because Goodwin was receiving consistent minutes at the time. He was also facing a competent team battling for playoff positioning).

– Even this preseason, Goodwin appears to be thinking too much. When he doesn’t see an opening to the rim or an obviously open teammate, he’s likely to make an unsure pass, like he does below in last season’s game against the Hawks.

– That’s not to say Goodwin’s vision is poor. He’s able to make the right reads when driving ability breaks down a defense, as he does below when finding Marcus Morris for a three off the pick-and-roll. Finding a balance between Goodwin’s aggressive attacking and his passing ability is the next step.

– The other obvious deficiency is Goodwin’s ability to defend in pick-and-roll situations. While he’s quick enough to handle point guards, his lack of strength showed simply when Atlanta small forward Kyle Korver (not the biggest guy) threw two screens at Goodwin that stopped him dead in his tracks, allowing point guard Dennis Schroeder to get to the rim. Here is one of those examples.

– Relative to other athletic guards, Goodwin struggles to finish at the rim. He hits 48 percent close to the basket. For reference, that’s well below the 58-percent that Eric Bledsoe and 5-foot-9 Isaiah Thomas shot at the cup last season. More impressively, Goran Dragic hit an impressive 68 percent five feet and in. Here’s an example of Goodwin’s inability to finish a hard drive to the hoop.
Added strength and experience is easily the remedy to a number of these issues and it’s believable Goodwin will get there.

That may not come until after his rookie deal ends. How the Suns seek out developing Goodwin will be interesting to watch in 2015-16, as will their decisions in regards to his future with the team and the roster around him.

STATS TO KNOW

– About one in five of Goodwin’s attempts came in catch-and-shoot situations and he shot a reasonable effective field goal percentage (accounting for threes being worth more points) of 47 percent in those situations, per NBA Stats. The Suns would like players to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 51 percent overall.

– According to Nylon Calculus, 46 percent of Goodwin’s opportunities are self-created but he shot just 40 percent on those attempts. Of the field goals he made 56 percent were unassisted, a higher number than established guards he played with last season — Brandon Knight and Goran Dragic. That would seem to say he forces things.

– Goodwin shot 48 percent in close field goals, five feet or closer to the rim.

– Goodwin may never develop a mid-range game, but adding a three-point shot has been an emphasis to pair with his driving capabilities. His three-point shooting (29 percent overall) was worse when he was not guarded last year. He hit 27 percent when defenders were six feet away or more, according to Nylon Calculus. Opponents left Goodwin that open on 40 percent of his three-point attempts, a sign they did not consider him a threat.

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