Marquese Chriss should not be the pick for the Phoenix Suns at No. 4

The largest development in the past week of NBA Draft coverage has been the rapid rise of Marquese Chriss.

The 18-year-old power forward out of Washington went from a borderline first-round pick in October to a consensus top-10 selection in May.

Some were skeptical that Chriss was even worth that high of a selection, and now the latest mock drafts have him being selected in the top five after his private workout earlier in the week.

DraftExpress has Chriss going No. 3, and both Sports Illustrated and ESPN have him going to the Phoenix Suns at No. 4.

While we at Empire of the Suns are fans of Chriss as a draft prospect, I personally do not feel the Suns should consider him at No. 4.

Before looking into the risk of selecting Chriss, let’s take a look at why he is alluring enough for some to be projected in the top five of the draft.

At 6-foot-10, Chriss has freakish athleticism he showcases on both ends of the court.

He can soar through the air on one end for a highlight reel alley-oop and nearly hit his head on the rim after blocking a shot on the other end.

His appeal beyond being an athlete is his shooting. Chad Ford of ESPN says Chriss “comes with a sweet stroke that should allow him to be a stretch-4 in the league.”

On 60 attempts at Washington, Chriss shot a respectable 35 percent from three-point range and his good-looking stroke should progress over time.

While it is at a basic stage, he does show the ability to take the ball off the dribble for a couple steps and set up a mid-range jumper attacking closeouts.

The two-way potential of Chriss seems too good to pass up, so what’s wrong with this picture?

Simply put, Chriss arguably has more potential to become a bust than an All-Star.

First and foremost, Chriss has an extremely low basketball IQ and understanding of the game for a lottery selection, let alone a top-five pick.

That shines through on defense. Chriss is out of position constantly, doesn’t appear to comprehend how the defense or offense shifts around and makes dumb decisions on a regular basis.

That’s apparent when you look at the NCAA leaders in personal fouls. Chriss is in first with 138, nine more than the player second on the list. He goes for the home run play far too often and tries to make up for poor positioning or effort to bail himself out. Chriss fouled out of 15 of the 34 games he played in during his one season at Washington.

Where Chriss should be making a difference with his athleticism is on the glass, but he has one of the worst defensive rebounding rates of a draft prospect in a long time. According to Sam Vecenie of CBS Sports, Chriss’ 11.6 rate is worse than five point guard prospects in the draft, including his teammate Dejounte Murray.

On offense, he isn’t exactly a world-beater. Chriss can hit an open three, make a spectacular play at the rim, but he’s very limited other than that. There are no signs of playmaking potential because of his poor feel for the game and he’s also a bad passer. That’s disappointing considering how agile Chriss is and the 80 percent chance he can beat his defender off the dribble.

NBA teams are banking on some major development for him to become anything more than a role player on offense, and this is, without a doubt, Chriss’ stronger side of the court.

His shooting is also nowhere close to being a lock. His 60 attempts from the college line are nothing to bank on in terms of being a steady shooter, and Chriss attempted only five three-pointers in his senior year of high school.

This brings us to the central counterpoint of the Chriss argument. He’s only played basketball for five years and has a football background. Those higher on Chriss feel he will become more physical on the glass and his knowledge of the game will grow exponentially in his first couple of years in the league.

Suns fans have been quick to compare Chriss’ experience to Amar’e Stoudemire. The two have that in common, but count me as a non-believer that Chriss can average 26 points and nine rebounds a game before his 23rd birthday. Chriss’ game is far more perimeter oriented and he’s not one to square up a defender and attack him with no regard for human life. The similarities in athleticism are there, but that’s all I see.

Where that brings us, however, is also the main risk in drafting Chriss so high. There’s no way of knowing if Chriss is going to get that growth or if he truly has this narrow of an understanding when it comes to basketball. If he doesn’t take huge strides forward, that will affect him on both ends of the floor in a major way.

While I personally am against Chriss at No. 4, I understand the appeal. This is a weak draft, and after the first two prospects, there are legitimate flaws in the next group of prospects. How good are Dragan Bender and Jaylen Brown on offense currently? How much of Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield’s offensive games translate to the NBA? What is Kris Dunn’s upside at 22 years of age?

Chriss presents a home run selection, and for a team like the Boston Celtics coming off a 48-win season with the best young coach in the NBA, there’s a much stronger argument to select him at No 3.

For the Suns at No. 4, however, I see different circumstances. Bender and Brown both fit needs on the team and have NBA skills right now unlike Chriss, and as our own Bryan Gibberman covered, there’s no set-in-stone reason to not select Dunn if the team believes he’s “the guy.”

The team also has a selection at No. 13, where a power forward prospect like Henry Ellenson, Deyonta Davis or Domantas Sabonis should be available.

Young, super-athletic prospects with little feel for the game who ride on potential for most of their skills in the pre-draft process have tended to flame out. Tyrus Thomas, Joe Alexander, Hasheem Thabeet, Wesley Johnson, Ekpe Udoh, Jan Vesely, Thomas Robinson are all examples of top-10 selections in the past decade whom this label fits.

The frustrating situation for the Suns is that Bender or Brown could very well be next on that list too. Unfortunately, that’s the reality of the 2016 NBA Draft and the challenge general manager Ryan McDonough and his scouts face when they make their decision in June.

If Devin Booker hadn’t exceeded all expectations, maybe the Suns would be in the right position to swing for the fences on a top-five selection like Chriss. Booker gives the team a true building block for the future, however, and Phoenix now has to start putting the proper pieces in place around him.

Striking out on top-five selections can set a franchise back, and the big-time gamble Chriss presents is too much of a risk for Phoenix at No. 4.

Follow @KellanOlson