Corbin Burnes continues to show ability to adapt, explains dip in strikeouts
Jan 17, 2025, 2:33 PM

Corbin Burnes #39 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 30, 2024 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
(Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
PHOENIX — Corbin Burnes was not the same pitcher in 2021 as in 2019, nor did he look the same in 2024 as 2021.
Burnes has been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in MLB over the last five seasons, and his ability to adapt stands out when diving into how he’s done so.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are betting on him to continue pushing himself. They introduced him Wednesday after he signed a six-year contract worth $210 million. The contract has an opt-out after the second year for flexibility.
A typical tell that a starting pitcher is starting to decline is a decreasing strikeout rate, but that isn’t a death sentence, as Burnes has shown.
Burnes struck out an elite 35.6% of hitters in 2021, when he earned the Cy Young award for the Milwaukee Brewers. His 23.1% K rate last year with the Baltimore Orioles finished around league average, but he’s explained the difference as a shift in approach more so than a dip in stuff.
“I’ve learned over the years, obviously off of 2021 with the Cy Young I had all the punch outs … but for me, I found more value in being able to go deep into games and throw more innings,” Burnes told Arizona Sports’ Burns & Gambo on Wednesday. “It doesn’t matter, an out is an out. If I strike the guy out, if I get a ground ball at shortstop, it’s the same. So strikeouts are going to take at least three pitches where I know I can get a grand out on one pitch.
“So it’s just being smart, being efficient, having the situations where you know you can get the strikeout. Going out and striking out the side is beautiful and glamorous in the second inning of the baseball game, but you might throw 18 to 20 pitches. Or if I can go out and do it in six, it allows me to go that much deeper in the game and allow that bullpen to stay rested and just kind of puts the team in a better spot overall.”
Inducing more ground balls and pop-ups, Burnes finished 2024 with a 2.92 ERA. And he showcased his ability to recalibrate in-season when he saw changes were needed.
Corbin Burnes just turned 30 and has an average of 189 IP per year over the last four seasons.
I understand the cutter movement was down this year, and the Ks were down as well, but the velocity is still great, and there’s really no reason he can’t do this for five more years. pic.twitter.com/vUxAA2wNCZ
— Honestly Jake (@Honestly_Jake) November 18, 2024
Corbin Burnes increased his strikeouts in September
Burnes experienced his season-best ERA, strikeout rate, WHIP and opposing slugging percentage in September.
He allowed four earned runs in 30 innings all month. That 1.20 ERA ranked fifth among qualified starting pitchers, and then he continued that dominance in the postseason. In his lone playoff start, Burnes threw eight innings with one run allowed on five hits.
The right-hander was an All-Star with Baltimore but ran into some trouble in August, so he made adjustments. He threw his cutter more frequently after making some “mechanical tweaks” to his premier pitch, a weapon he started throwing in 2020 and leaning on in 2021.
MLB Network outlined the pitch’s difference at the end of last year with a slightly lower velocity but significantly more late movement:
Corbin Burnes fine-tuned his cutter late last season, leading to a 1.20 ERA in the month of September 🔥
In @SlangsOnSports' Statcast Spotlight, BK and @AlLeiter22 detail Burnes' changes and how they resulted in success. #Top10RightNow pic.twitter.com/GvTRZXK3H6
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 15, 2025
Burnes also resurrected a sweeper that he had worked in at times previously but not consistently.
Against his cutter, opponents hit .206 with a .228 wOBA (weighted on-base average, which accounts for how a player reaches base). An MLB average wOBA is .316.
Against his sweeper, opposing batters went 2-for-14. And his strikeout rate climbed to 27.7%, 14th in MLB in September.
“The main goal this year was to fill up the strike zone more,” Burnes told MLB Network. “We thought we had a lot of room to grow with the first pitch strikes, strike percentage and just by doing that we got a lot of early contact, were able to pitch deeper into games, kept the pitch count down. So we made that adjustment in September of getting the swing and miss back, getting the strikeouts back. Knowing I can do both is great and I think will help me prolong my career.”
Corbin Burnes is set to join an already impressive @Dbacks starting rotation 🐍
The former Cy Young Award winner joins #MLBTonight to talk about his decision, the free agent process and more. pic.twitter.com/WqczXMnURp
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 16, 2025
Durability from Corbin Burnes
Agent Scott Boras made another case for how Burnes is a promising bet to age gracefully into his 30s, and it has to do with volume.
The 30-year-old has thrown an average of 197 innings over the past three seasons, a rare workload in today’s game.
But overall, Burnes has 903.2 regular season innings pitched as a major leaguer, much fewer than previous starters the D-backs took a chance on such as Zack Greinke and Madison Bumgarner.
“I view Corbin Burnes as a 26-year-old pitcher,” Boras said. “Why? Because he only has 900 innings. To put that into a proper perspective, when Greinke signed here, he had almost 2,000 innings. So when you’re seeing what they’re getting and the fact that he’s got a very fresh arm that you can see. We’ve done all the studies with (Max Scherzer) when he signed with Washington, he had I think 1,200 innings on his arm, as opposed to others who’ve had 1,800 or 2,000 when they signed. So that innings odometer really worked well in the direction.”
Bumgarner had thrown 1,846 innings in San Francisco plus another 102.1 in the postseason. His strikeouts were also on the decline when he signed with Arizona after the 2019 season, but unlike Burnes, his hard-hit rates were climbing. Bumgarner did not make it through his entire deal before the D-backs cut him in 2023.
Scherzer, on the other side, signed with Washington at a similar age as Burnes and Bumgarner and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball from ages 30-34.
Burnes explained his commitment to being durable, which is evident. He has not been on the injured list since 2021 while devouring innings.
“My goal each and every year is to stay healthy,” Burnes said during his intro press conference. “I told everyone my value is on the field. So if I can take care of my body off the field, take care of my mind off the field, to be the best prepared I can be and having the most recovery that I can eat between each start, I know that I can go out there and make 30-plus starts and give the team the best chance to win.
“Coming off 2021, my goal was never to try to replicate ’21. If you’re pushing for that every year, you’re going to put yourself in bad spots and beat yourself up when you have tough stretches. Once I got through that season, I knew I was going to be an established big leaguer and it was all about the health. I knew the pieces were there. I knew the stuff was there. I just needed to continue to take care of what I could.”
Early career adjustments
Speaking of 2021, Burnes made substantial changes to his arsenal and approach.
If you just glance at Burnes’ Baseball Reference page, his 2019 statline looks like a typo, some horrible mistake. Corbin Burnes had an 8.82 ERA? He gave up 17 home runs in 49 innings?
At the time, his most commonly-used pitch was a mid-90s four-seamer, and it got crushed that season. He allowed a staggering .425 batting average and 13 home runs using it.
Per Statcast’s run value metric, Burnes’ four-seamer was tied for the single worst pitch from any major leaguer in 2019 at -24 (24 more runs allowed than the average pitch).
Two years later, his cutter ranked seventh among all pitches in the league with a run value of 20.
Foolish Baseball produced a great video a couple years ago explaining his change from a fastball that appeared flat to hitters — without that desired rise effect — to a cutter that jerks in on lefties and away from righties.
Corbin Burnes' Back Door Cutter (home plate view) pic.twitter.com/y5vYoVtANG
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) January 11, 2023
Burnes plowed through the minor leagues, became a consensus top 100 prospect and showed promise during his rookie year as a reliever in 2018 for the NLCS-bound Brewers.
But to develop into an elite starting pitcher at this level, he proved the willingness to look at himself and solve problems, which is the best case to make for why he’s a promising bet for the Diamondbacks.