Here’s how we think the D-backs can reach the playoffs in 2025

The 2024 Arizona Diamondbacks took a gut punch to miss out on the playoffs.

The 2025 version of the D-backs appears well-built, and they shouldn’t fall so painfully short again.

It looks good on paper, but baseball has to happen. We asked our staff what baseball things need to happen for the D-backs to make an MLB postseason return.

The D-backs will make the playoffs if …

Vince Marotta, co-host of Bickley & Marotta: … they can avoid a swoon at any time this season.

It’s very easy to point to the last week of last season as the reason why the D-backs didn’t make the playoffs. I mean, there was the eight-run meltdown in Milwaukee, Ketel Marte tapping out of the first game of the pivotal San Francisco series the very next day and then getting shut out on two hits by San Diego’s Double-A squad in the second-to-last game of the year. Yes, that all contributed, and we tend to remember the events that happened most recently.

But let’s remember that the first two months of the season did not go very well. The Diamondbacks dug themselves a hole, going 25-32 and entering June in fourth place in the division. That left a lot of ground to make up, and despite going 64-41 the rest of the way, it wasn’t enough.

How to avoid that swoon? Well, more consistent starting pitching is where it begins. It almost has to be better by default, doesn’t it? And having Corbin Carroll and Eugenio Suarez show up early offensively would go a long way. Both players mashing the ball in Cactus League play is a good sign, even though I’ve learned (begrudgingly) not to put too much stock in spring numbers.

Dan Bickley, co-host of Bickley & Marotta: … they have an MVP candidate (Carroll or Marte); a Cy Young candidate (Corbin Burnes or Zac Gallen); a top 10 defense; and a catcher (Gabi Moreno) who stays healthy for most of the season.

Luke Lapinski, co-host of Wolf & Luke: The best part about this team is there are a few different legitimate answers to this question. If Carroll’s first-half struggles from 2024 are a thing of the past, Arizona’s probably a playoff team. If Moreno and/or Alek Thomas take a relative step forward at the plate, that could be enough, too. Even if Josh Naylor just makes up for some of the power they lost when Christian Walker left, the D-backs should be good.

The most certain path to the postseason is simple: the starting pitching stays healthy. Particularly the top of the rotation. If Gallen, Burnes and Merrill Kelly make most of their starts in 2025, the D-backs will be a force. Remember, this team missed out of the 2024 postseason because of a tiebreaker the day after the regular season. It’s not like the Diamondbacks need a huge jump to get back to playing October baseball. And if their rotation’s healthy, they won’t need to score anywhere near the MLB-best 886 runs they just put up in 2024.

John Gambadoro, co-host of Burns & Gambo: … if the top three in the rotation of Burnes, Gallen and Kelly stay healthy and combine for at least 90 starts. The Diamondbacks are deep with starting pitching, but Eduardo Rodriguez made just 10 starts last year. And while I love Brandon Pfaadt to take another leap and see his ginormous potential, he is still a work in progress.

So the Big 3 — not the KD, Book and Beal trio — have to stay healthy and this team will be in the postseason.

Dave Burns, co-host of Burns & Gambo: … their bullpen ERA is one of the 10 best in baseball. It’s an oddly specific requirement and — of course — not the only thing that needs to happen. But the starting rotation is deep and loaded. I believe Pfaadt has a breakout season loading. As long as the offense doesn’t have to endure a similar start to the season from Carroll and Suarez, that’s a top 10, maybe even to five unit.

All the boxes are checked in those two categories. Meanwhile, the bullpen looks great on paper and in theory, but if they’re going to go where they want to, it needs to be an elite shutdown unit. A full season of AJ Puk, a little bit of redemption for Shelby Miller, a guest star appearance by Drey Jameson, and Justin Martinez paying off the futures bet made by the front office with a dominant season should do the trick.

Alex Weiner, D-backs reporter and co-host of the Ain’t Not Fang podcast: … they play up to their standard and are not overcome with injuries.

This is one of the deeper rosters in the National League, with an accomplished starting rotation headed by Burnes, a coveted free-agent addition, and Gallen, the incumbent ace. Starting pitching sets the tone, and on paper the D-backs have one of the better starting fives in the league after pitching sunk them last year. This will help the bullpen, as well, a unit with uncertainty regarding closer but promising arms in the back end with Martinez and Puk.

Arizona led the league in several offensive categories, and while management is not expecting to house the top-scoring lineup again, the offense could remain very productive. Perhaps more chaos is in order, and Carroll putting together a more complete season would help with that. Carroll and Marte should make up a fearsome 1-2 punch. It’s time for them to make the All-Star Game together.

Last year, this team scored the most runs but finished bottom five in team ERA. The Diamondbacks finishing, let’s say, eighth in scoring but with a top-10 ERA would blast them into the postseason picture, even in a tough National League.

Ali Nerini, co-host of the Ain’t No Fang podcast: … the offense can produce runs and contribute its part, letting the high-graded pitching staff do the rest.

You ultimately cannot win games without runs, and with the loss of bats like Walker during the offseason, that means players like Marte, Carroll, Naylor, Thomas and McCarthy will need to do their part offensively. The amount of speed on the team and its smart base running can be a key factor to wins as well.

Kellan Olson, co-host of Arizona Sports at Night: … an average outcome to this season occurs. This is a 90-win ball club if that happens. And while you remember last year’s team as a failure, they had 89 of ’em already, so it’s not too much of a jump.

Burnes has been one of the five best pitchers in this decade, a solid Gallen year is a pretty damn good No. 2 and Kelly from 2022-23 posted a 3.33 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, numbers better than just about every third rotation option in baseball. Imagine if Rodriguez gets back on track and/or Pfaadt returns to the form he was in last season before the weight of carrying the rotation understandably wore him down. The bullpen has four trustworthy guys in high-leverage spots, which I can’t remember saying about any D-backs bullpen, ever.

The variance lies more in the offense, outside of Marte, who will be incredibly awesome again. The difference between Solid Corbin Carroll and MVP Votes Corbin Carroll will likely swing how great the group will be. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Suarez are so streaky that Naylor being dependable in the middle of the order is a must.

Moreno has another jump or two left with his bat and this is the year to really start showing it. We’ll see how it goes at DH and also quietly in center, where Jake McCarthy offers a lot of singles and Thomas needs to offer something beyond sensational defense.

Injuries will come, as will regression and progression in different facets. But as long as it’s a relatively normal return on those types of things, this should be a very good baseball team.

Mitch Vareldzis, co-host of Arizona Sports at Night: … their offense can maintain last season’s production.

They are not required to be the highest-scoring offense in baseball, but they can’t drop off the face of the Earth when it comes to run production.

The offense will be intriguing without Walker and Joc Pederson to man the middle of the order, but the late-year surges of Carroll and Suarez should carry from last year into the start of this year, which I anticipate making up for those lineup departures.

If the pitching is anywhere at the middle of the league in common stats — it was at the bottom of the league last year — this team will be the one to challenge the Dodgers for the National League throne.

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