Path to postseason: Comparing Diamondbacks, Padres schedules before showdown

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ and San Diego Padres’ playoff odds have interwoven like DNA strands, trending toward a do-or-die series at the end of the regular season at Petco Park for the final National League Wild Card spot.

The NL West rivals have competed within a half-game of each other every day in September so far, as they are both 5-3 this month.

Arizona and San Diego each have five series remaining, three of which are against sub-.500 clubs. There is an opportunity for one of these teams to create separation and avoid a pre-postseason playoff series in San Diego.

The Padres’ schedule is more favorable, as their remaining opponents have collective .479 winning percentage. That number is .493 for Arizona. The next three series in particular heavily favor the Padres, applying pressure on the D-backs to keep pace:

Padres’ final 5 series

• @ Giants (3) — 62-85
• @ Rockies (4) — 55-91
• vs. Marlins (3) — 72-75
• @ Dodgers (3) — 89-57
• vs. Diamondbacks (3) — 78-69

Diamondbacks’ final 5 series

• vs. Rangers (3) — 72-75
• vs. Marlins (3) — 72-75
• vs. Yankees (3) — 84-62
• @ Rockies (3) — 55-91
• @ Padres (3) — 78-68

The D-backs and Padres are 5-5 against each other this season.

If they are tied or separated by one game going into the final series — and the Wild Card race comes down to these two teams — the winner of that set simply clinches. If there are two or three games between the two, then the trailing club would have to complete a sweep.

The Diamondbacks are in the position they find themselves in by accruing a very good record against sub-.500 teams (46-32). But the Rangers and Marlins have given them trouble with a 5-1 record against Arizona, collectively.

Texas, despite its lackluster record, is in the conversation for an American League Wild Card spot, giving its upcoming series at Chase Field playoff-like stakes on both sides.

Arizona just missed Rangers ace Jacob deGrom, and will face lefty MacKenzie Gore and right-hander Kumar Rocker in the opening two games.

Looking down the road for the Padres, the Dodgers have no challengers for the NL West but are 3.5 games ahead of Atlanta for the second seed in the National League. L.A. could be competing to clinch a bye during its series against San Diego, which is something to monitor.

There is another potential dynamic in this race: It may not be down to two horses.

The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight contests and are three games ahead of the Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card spot. Chicago is trending in the wrong direction at the worst time, however, the Cubs own the tiebreaker over the D-backs and Padres, a major advantage in a tight race.

The top Wild Card Phillies are one game up on Chicago, essentially the same distance from the Diamondbacks since Arizona will likely have the division-record tiebreaker over Philadelphia.

The Cubs or Phillies would really have to plummet while the Padres and D-backs surge to flip places, but they have tougher schedules.

Cubs’ final 5 series

• vs. Pirates (3) — 74-73
• vs. Braves (3) — 86-61
• @ Reds (3) — 69-77
• vs. Marlins (3) — 72-75
• @ Red Sox (3) — 80-67

Phillies’ final 5 series

• @ Braves (3) — 86-61
• @ Nationals (3) — 67-81
• vs. Mets (4) — 68-78
• vs. Brewers (3) — 91-56
• vs. Rays (3) — 87-59

Philadelphia has the third-hardest schedule left in MLB (.545).

Also, the Marlins are one of the most influential teams in determining the Wild Card standings even after they fell out of the race (6.5 games back).

The Diamondbacks have been relying on pitching, particularly their bullpen, to scratch and claw to wins lately, as the onus is on the bats to find a way out of their slump.

Corbin Carroll’s MRI (back) showed nothing concerning, and he will be back in the lineup Friday in an attempt to give the offense a boost.

The D-backs and Rangers begin their three-game series at Chase Field on Friday at 6:40 p.m. MST on 98.7 and the Arizona Sports app. 

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