Western Conference Power Rankings, Part 2: Can the Suns crack top-6?

Welcome back to another NBA season! In about six weeks!

In order to recap the offseason and gauge where the Phoenix Suns land in the Western Conference, it’s time for the honored tradition of content creation: power rankings!

The series will be divided into three parts, covering five teams each, and splits the conference into five different tiers. We’ve walked through the intriguing sludge at the bottom of the West.

Up next, we get into a strong middle that includes the Suns.

Tier 4 (continued): No need to look past the red flags

10. Portland Trail Blazers

An important tangent to kick things off: What happens in Portland over the next three years is the biggest moment of Adam Silver’s tenure as commissioner.

He’s handled extreme controversies, a pandemic, polarizing CBA changes, anti-tanking reform and more. But if he lets the Blazers get run into the ground by a new owner that sounds like an even more extreme version of the final Arizona Coyotes ownership group, then this is one of the biggest disasters by a commissioner from one of our four major sports in many years.

Portland is a great basketball city and the Blazers are a great franchise, both rich in history. The owner appears to have no interest in that or the community. Instead, he’s focused on maximizing profit, and that could eventually lead to him attempting relocation (if that’s not what he’s doing already). On top of this situation, the flipping of the Lakers and Timberwolves has Silver allowing billionaires to use the NBA as a tool to accumulate more wealth, their only motivation in becoming an owner. And the league is prioritizing its own financial gains from the situation over what is best for each city and franchise. It’s gross to watch unfold in real-time.

That was worth bringing up because the Blazers should be on the up-and-up as one of the best stories in the league last year, rallying from the arrest of their head coach one game into the season and building up a new culture around interim head coach Tiago Splitter. There were reports, though, of Splitter getting low-balled by ownership, and that was essentially confirmed by Splitter bouncing to take the job in Chicago. That pretty much never happens. Neither does new head coach Micah Nori getting a one-year deal.

OK. Back to basketball.

Whose team is this? While it should be Deni Avdija’s, a starting backcourt of Ja Morant and Damian Lillard indicates otherwise. Even though Lillard is a legendary shooter, he is far better with the ball in his hands, and that gap is even larger for Morant. And Avdija is a better playmaker right now than either of them. Buying low on Morant makes sense. It did not make sense for Portland, who were led in part by Jrue Holiday as well.

I don’t understand why Holiday is on this team still. Maybe other teams don’t want to acquire his remaining two years and $72 million, but he was legitimately very good for Portland and was an aforementioned large part of the culture shift. He can’t do that as a third guard. Surely this is a September development, when we have seen some fairly big trades the last couple of offseasons.

The Shaedon Sharpe injury is perhaps more inconsequential than you think, a meniscus tear that will have him out potentially through February.

While he’s entering Year 1 of a four-year, $90 million extension, Sharpe certainly wasn’t projected to have a significant role and likely would have hardly had one at all. He got hurt more last year, sported a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and still isn’t making enough progress as a decision-maker (even though there are positive glimpses). In a crowded backcourt, Scoot Henderson (who had a sneaky great postseason) unquestionably does more as a playmaker, driver and defender.

This will work if Morant is even 80% of what he was in his peak in Memphis, a moment people already forget as him turning into one of the faces of the league. He has been more like 20% when healthy, and is now at a total of 79 games played over the last three years.

He and Lillard will be forced into some level of defensive responsibility that is way beyond what they are physically capable of, let alone when accounting for their overall ability and desire. Lillard’s the most underrated playmaker of his generation, a true pick-and-roll dynamo that I’m really going to miss watching dissect defenses when it’s all over — but he’s the third banana.

Avdija is a true All-NBA guy. He’s that good. Watching how easily he took over that play-in game in Phoenix was remarkably impressive considering his lack of experience in big games. I’m still all-in on Donovan Clingan eventually becoming a top-10 center.

Toumani Camara is at that “he is what he is” stage entering Year 4, a true top-billing defender who has major issues offensively, even though 37% from 3 on seven attempts a game is a huge step up and he’s still a major contributor. There is more to like from there, like Nori, but there’s no need to go too deep when the initial two layers are of major concern.

Tier 3: Potential to ascend if someone else slips up

9. Dallas Mavericks

It might seem irresponsible to begin a team profile with arguably the third-best player on the team, but Mavericks optimism (that I currently possess lots of) hinges on the health of Dereck Lively II.

Whenever a “foot surgery” is conducted on a 7-footer, let alone one who is 22 years old, you should be worried. Lively had it eight months ago, and there is still a mystery surrounding when he will be back. And this was the second surgery he’s had on his right foot, a right foot attached to a right ankle he broke two seasons ago before having the initial surgery on the right foot two summers ago.

Lively was a borderline top-10 center in the league through these injuries, so you can imagine what natural progression of an emerging talent and full health could add up to for him. He is the perfect complementary lob threat for Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg. I like Daniel Gafford, and you do too. He is not to Lively’s level.

Regardless, Flagg should be bordering on All-Star territory in Year 2. Dallas put him at point guard to begin his career, a seemingly foolish move that looked to be out of necessity and probably still was, but you could see in the back-half of the year how much that accelerated his ability to read the floor. At times, he looked overmatched and was often inefficient, but that comes with being on an awful team with no creation help at all. His point guards were Ryan Nembhard, D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Williams and Tyus Jones.

Upgrading that to Irving should do wonders. With that said, Dallas hasn’t added a certified “third guard” to help the two of them, so when injuries come for either of them, it’ll be rough. Marcus Sasser floundered in Detroit but still has a lot of believers from his Houston days collegiately. Consider me one.

I’ll use this space to tout Dallas’ secondary rotation players, because there are a lot of capable guys here that will really shine once the Mavericks get to playing winning basketball.

Gafford is one, and rookie Morez Johnson is another. His intense rebounding and outlandish versatility defensively for his body type will help Dallas right away. Santi Aldama was a clever addition to add more shooting and even more size, another perimeter-based big in the realm of P.J. Washington. You can rely on at least two of Max Christie, Naji Marshall and Caleb Martin to be impactful. Sergio De Larrea was a, “let me file that name away for later” guy at summer league, a rookie out of Spain that Dallas somewhat believes in since it got rid of Nembhard.

Dallas will really be cooking if it can include Zaccharie Risacher in there, the 2024 No. 1 overall pick who never clicked in Atlanta. You can understand the early smashing of the eject button but it also feels too early to write off that he can’t be the second- or third-best wing on a playoff team. He’s still working with the physical profile that made him the top selection, and while the skill development and confidence has lagged behind considerably, this is still a 36% 3-point shooter with true wing size and competitiveness on defense.

Some of the best potential outcomes for the Mavericks’ season reach 50-plus wins. There is a lot to be excited about. Irving, Flagg and Lively are a legitimately good Big 3 if the two young players take a step forward and they are surrounded by a very capable supporting cast. Plus, there’s first-year head coach Dusty May, who has been the most hyped up college-to-pros name since Brad Stevens and Billy Donovan.

I’d be shocked if this isn’t a certified play-in team, and is right there alongside Utah as the “riser” for the Suns to be worried about for the top-eight mix.

8. Phoenix Suns

What I honestly can’t decide on and probably won’t even be able to in October is how safe the Suns’ floor is. They won 45 games last year through a myriad of injuries and in Year 1 of a newly designed roster and system under Jordan Ott. With the majority of those contributors returning, that should be more than enough to believe that this squad will finish at least .500 or better.

But. This is not exactly the same team.

In the first half of the year, Jalen Green was hardly healthy. The pace-and-space elements of a free-flowing offense with great ball movement let an offense overachieve, supported by the backbone of a top-5 defense and elite hustle inside the margins. A half-dozen guys were pacing for career years, maximized by Ott and the structure he designed to get the best out of each player.

In the second half of the year, Green returned, bringing a more sticky ball-handler and stagnating the rhythm that allowed the likes of Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, Collin Gillespie and Oso Ighodaro to thrive within the offense. Once Dillon Brooks got healthy at the same time, the offense was borderline unwatchable at times, a toxic amount of bad decisions and isolation scoring. That would have been fine if the defense kept it up. The defense did not keep it up.

The big shift comes with Miles Bridges, and based on what we’ve seen out of his eight-year career, he fits in more with the identity of the second half than the first. And in order to get him, part of the price was Allen and O’Neale, two guys who matched the DNA of the first half instead of the second.

In a line I’ll repeat typing until all these specific letters are imprinted into my fingers, teams need to maximize their stars, especially when they only have one and there is a large gap between them and the second-best player on the roster. There is no logical way to look at this roster and think this is what’s best for Devin Booker, and you could argue this is the exact type of roster you shouldn’t put around him.

And here’s the thing. We are going to cross the threshold of a dozen years of knowing this dude. Unless Booker defies the trend to this point, he is just going to blend into whatever is going on. That’s great when things are going well. That can’t happen when things are not going well.

The X-factor is Phoenix’s bench and how Ott can incorporate his young talent. The base of Gillespie, Ighodaro and Jordan Goodwin is one of the best reserve trios in the league. If Ott can squeeze in minutes for Rasheer Fleming’s ridiculous athleticism, Khaman Maluach’s massive interior presence and Koa Peat’s well-rounded balance in areas the Suns desperately need (size, driving, passing, rebounding, etc.), this could be the difference toward 50 wins.

Instead, it’ll most likely come down to how the starters jell, because there’s no room for the youngins. I’ve got a bad feeling on that front, and anticipate a starting lineup change by the All-Star break, whether that’s for Bridges or Green. Ott doesn’t mess around. He won’t tolerate regression. If he sees hints of it, he will adjust before ultimately acting if the players don’t give him a choice.

With all of that said about the anticipation of a downshift, the Suns’ base is still firm and capable of holding for this range of the play-in shuffle. Booker is still a fantastic player, Ott quickly emerged as one of the NBA’s best young coaches and he’s still got enough guys that play the way he wants them to in order to be solid through a terrific bench. I’ll trust those three elements for another year to ignore my intuition for alarm bells just about everywhere else, and if I get burned thinking this remains a top-8 squad, I get burned.

7. Utah Jazz

The largest question hanging over a guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference, a.k.a. a top-6 spot in the standings, is if Utah’s numerous tactics over the last three years to purposefully fare worse in games lead to a losing culture that won’t shake off and/or upset the basketball gods. If the Jazz are able to make wanting to win again as simple as it sounds, they’ll have a shot at cracking the concrete of a pretty locked-in group of six teams above them.

The Jazz’s three biggest components are the way its backcourt clicks, how it utilizes Jaren Jackson Jr. in the frontcourt and the health of Lauri Markkanen.

Keyonte George is a dude. We know that now. But what’s the ceiling here? Is he a future All-Star? A top-3 player on a contender? If not, step aside for Darryn Peterson, because that guy absolutely is as long as all the wonky stuff at Kansas was a write-off. Peterson wants to play point guard, and while he is not one, he’s got the potential to develop toward Booker’s level as a playmaker and it’s good that he sees himself as more of that instead of a ball-dominant scorer.

Head coach Will Hardy is good, but we are about to learn truly how good that is. He will need to develop a system around not having a point guard. His command of the team will have to serve as its steady force, because there isn’t a floor general here to do that. You don’t need one in the modern NBA if there is proper offensive organization and structure.

Jackson can’t play center. His rebounding and fouling issues are well chronicled at this point. Former Sun Jusuf Nurkic was solid last year, so he and the bench combo of Kyle Filipowski and Jaxson Hayes need to provide enough basic A-B-C support of 5 duties so Jackson can be maximized at the 4. Something to keep in mind is that this is the most offensive talent Jackson has ever played with. The shooting and playmaking support is deep. He should thrive with that.

And so should Markkanen, pending his fitness. He hasn’t cracked 70 games in any of his nine seasons and has averaged 48 the last three years. Again, some of that was shenanigans from the Jazz, but spurts of his playing time across those seasons included some concerning bouts of not looking and moving right at all. Remember, this fella started the All-Star Game in 2023 and was outstanding that year. He’s capable of leading this ship if his body allows him to.

The bench is a tad shallow. Ace Bailey was quietly a real two-way basketball player for Utah as a rookie and not the shot-hunting tank general you would have expected him to be given his college rep. He needs to lead this reserve group and gun for Sixth Man of the Year. Someone that got way too many minutes the last two years, like Isaiah Collier or Brice Sensabaugh, needs to be reliable. The Josh Green trade was smart business, taking a chance on a six-year veteran with a mild history of success as a back-end rotation player as opposed to taking a chance on Cody Williams or John Konchar. Josh Okogie might need to play real minutes, which is fine for the regular season at least.

They are likely a guy shy and should be using some of those accumulated picks to go get a reliable wing. They missed out on Luguentz Dort or Aaron Wiggins in the OKC second apron ducking. Perhaps an opportunity emerges late in the summer, or in the season. Gaps like that will really add up if those four extremely good players in the starting lineup end up being one or two instead of four.

Utah will preach patience, but Markkanen is 29 and Jackson is in Year 9. It’s a big season to get in the playoffs and build up from there.

Tier 2: Fake contenders

6. Los Angeles Lakers

Remember Luka’s revenge tour? His newfound motivation, the fitness magazine covers and the start of a new era of Lakers basketball?

Well, for all that, Doncic got hurt yet again for the playoffs, this time before them to miss all 10 extra games L.A. wound up playing. This has been a thing for a while now, and probably doesn’t get as much attention because Doncic plays through a lot of these injuries, not too dissimilar to Booker’s own trend. The bottom line is Doncic cannot be trusted to make it through a whole postseason, and even at that, he’s missed 50 regular season games the last two years.

That and the fact that the Lakers’ depth is built entirely around Doncic’s skillset makes it pretty easy to put them below the other potential contenders in the West.

No one really knows how this is going to go with Walker Kessler, a guy who has only played in meaningless basketball games in Utah before becoming “The Starting Center For The Los Angeles Lakers As Luka’s Two-Man Game Partner Who They Gave Up Their Last Big Assets For That Also Has To Carry The Defense.” That’s a lot of pressure, before getting to how that makes it impossible to evaluate how Kessler will perform on a possible 50-win team. He needs to definitively be a top-10 center for this to be a top-6 squad. He probably is?

It’s just a lot to put on Austin Reaves. For him to zone out while Luka Ball goes on, only for him to turn it on and be the fulcrum of the offense when Doncic either doesn’t want to be or is on the bench. Reaves handled that a lot better than most would last season and is going to have to balance that with the Lakers’ best reserves all being guys that should have the ball in their hands, too: Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton and Sandro Mamukelashvili. Reaves is a stud and is easily the Laker I trust the most.

There are major defensive issues here. The word from Laker Land is that Grimes’ earlier years in the league showed a capable on-ball defender, but even if he is one, there is no one else on the roster you trust to cut off a drive except for Jarred Vanderbilt, who has struggled to cement a role ever since he arrived in L.A. four years ago. Part of the plan will be to funnel everything toward Kessler. That also has its limitations. First-round pick Cameron Carr or 2025 second-round pick Adou Thiero, a favorite of ours last year, becoming energetic defense-first wings suddenly seems important. Either that or the Lakers have another addition in store later this offseason.

J.J. Redick proved himself last year, working through another set of tools that on paper added up to a high chance of disaster.

This is not that. It’s a bet that Doncic is capable of carrying a team by maximizing everyone the way they are out there to maximize him. I’ve grown a lot more skeptical of that part of Doncic’s game the last few years and how fun he would be to play with. In this space back then, I wrote he’s at an interesting crossroads where he will either be more like LeBron James or James Harden, and we’re pretty far down the path now into the latter.

Doncic is going to make a lot more First Team All-NBA squads and will be remembered as one of the best guards of all time, but he will do so without any championships unless he has a mid-career realization.